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Archive for October, 2014

20
Oct

Market movements are often not based on fact.

Robert J. Shiller’s October 18th New York Times article, “When a Stock Market Theory Is Contagious” discusses the recent stock market fluctuation.  In addition to being a professor of economics at Yale University, he has authored many books, writes columns, co-created the “S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices” and was 1 of 3 recipients of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences.

The topic of the  article ties into my comments about risk and volatility in my October newsletter.

“The problem is that short-term market movements are extremely hard to forecast.  But we live in the present and must try to understand what’s driving the market now, even if it’s much easier to predict their behavior in the long run.”  That is to say we do not know the future, but we can explain what happened in the past.

“…stock markets are driven by popular narratives, which don’t need basis in solid fact.”  The article compares the narratives with the “Ebola virus: they spread by contagion.”  The narratives causes investors “…to take action that propels prices…in the same direction.”  That is, we do not know why the market fell but people and companies may respond by cutting spending resulting in the market falling further.

Recent stories attribute the current drop in the stock market to a “global slowdown”.  The narrative can cause people and companies to spend less continuing the fall in the stock market.   He concludes with the following. “The question may be whether the virus mutates into a more psychologically powerful version, one with enough narrative force to create a major bear market.”