The Economic Impact of an Aging World
During the week of June 10, 2024, French markets were rocked by a government bond sell-off after a strong showing by the far-right National Rally party in the European Union election. With polls suggesting the party might win a plurality of seats in the upcoming French parliamentary election, investors feared a promised social spending program, including a reduction of the minimum retirement age from 64 to 60, would further strain the already struggling French economy.1
As it turned out, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which also promised expensive social spending and a reduction in the pension age, won the most seats on election day. The initial reaction in the government bond market was muted, but analysts predicted further turmoil to come.2 By contrast, when France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2023, aiming to strengthen the economy, workers took to the streets in protest.3
Supporting senior programs
The French conflict over the retirement age reflects a fundamental social and economic issue throughout the developed world. Put simply, the world population is getting older, which means the percentage of workers in the population who can drive the economy and support old age pension and health-care programs is gradually diminishing.
The U.S. Social Security program is a prime example. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers paying into the program for each beneficiary. In 2024, there are 2.7, projected to drop to 2.3 by 2040. Because of this demographic shift, Social Security no longer pays for itself and has been partially supported by trust fund reserves built up when there were more workers per beneficiary. The reserves for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which helps support retirement benefits, are projected to run out in 2033, at which time program income would cover only 79% of scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to increase funding.4
Medicare faces a similar challenge. The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund reserves, which help pay for Medicare Part A inpatient and hospital care benefits, are projected to be depleted in 2036, at which time payroll taxes and other revenue will pay only 89% of costs. Part B medical benefits and Part D prescription drug coverage are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund, but they will require an increasingly larger share of the federal budget unless economic growth outpaces spending.5
Longer lives, fewer children
The shift to an older population is driven by two demographic trends: people are living longer and having fewer children. One in six people in the world will be age 65 or older by 2050.6 The United States is already at that level, with more than 17% of the population age 65 or older in 2022, projected to reach almost 23% by 2050.7 Many other developed nations are even older. In 2022, the median age in the United States (the age at which half the population is older and half younger) was 38.9, the highest on record.8 In 2021 (most recent data), it was 48.4 in Japan, 46.8 in Italy, 44.9 in Germany, and 41.6 in France.9
The fertility rate, the average number of children born to each woman, has dropped throughout the world, due to a variety of factors including education, access to birth control, employment opportunities, and lifestyle choices. In the developed world, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is considered the replacement rate at which a country’s population remains stable. It is slightly higher in developing nations with higher mortality. Most developed countries have been below replacement since the 1970s, so they have depended on immigration to maintain or grow population.10 The U.S. fertility rate was 1.62 in 2023.11 Although fertility is higher in developing countries, it is dropping. Based on preliminary data, one academic study suggests that the global fertility rate may be near or below replacement for the first time in human history.12
Challenges and solutions
Spending on programs for an aging population is already straining economies throughout the world, and the economic pressure will increase as populations continue to age. The burden is not only the cost of the programs, but also the potential for lower production and tax revenue from a workforce that is smaller in proportion to the total population. This is likely to drive up government debt, and increased government borrowing, along with competition for a smaller pool of workers, may lead to higher inflation.13
So far, government programs to encourage couples to have more children have not had a significant impact, and there is no clear correlation between the fertility rate and child-care and housing costs, student debt, employment, religious beliefs, or local laws governing contraception and abortion. This suggests that the decision to have fewer children is more deeply ingrained in fundamental lifestyle choices. For developed countries, immigration may continue to provide a larger workforce, but recent immigration to developed nations has tended to be unskilled workers.14
The funding gap for government pension programs such as Social Security can be addressed by a combination of solutions that may be politically unpopular but are unlikely to derail the broader economy: higher retirement ages, increased payroll taxes, and means testing for wealthier beneficiaries.15 The larger question is how to keep growing the global economy. This may require increased worker productivity driven by recent technologies and greater integration of older workers into the workforce.
U.S. worker productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2024, well above the annual average since the end of World War II. If this trend continues, it could help balance some productivity loss as older people exit the workforce. Americans are already working longer, about one out of five of those age 65 and older was employed in 2024, almost double the number in 1985.16 The long-term solution may require rethinking the traditional model of a career, with more opportunity for lifelong learning and late-life career development. Studies indicate that working longer may help prevent cognitive decline, but it also could help balance the macroeconomic effects of global aging.17
Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.
1) Bloomberg, June 16, 2024
2) CNBC, July 8, 2024
3, 17) The New York Times, January 21, 2023
4) 2024 Social Security Trustees Report
5) 2024 Medicare Trustees Report
6, 9–10) United Nations World Population Prospects 2022
7–8) U.S. Census Bureau, 2023
11) National Center for Health Statistics, April 2024
12, 14) The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2024
13) Bloomberg, May 21, 2024
15) Social Security Administration, September 27, 2023
16) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
Real Estate Roundup: Feeling the Impact of Higher Rates
U.S. commercial real estate prices fell more than 11% between March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, and January 2024. The potential for steeper losses has chilled the market and still poses significant risks to some property owners and lenders.1
On the residential side of the market, the national median price of an existing home rose 5.7% over the year that ended in April 2024 to reach $407,600, a record high for April.2 Despite sky-high borrowing costs, buyer demand (driven up by younger generations forming new households) has exceeded the supply of homes for sale.
Here are some of the factors affecting these distinct markets and the broader economy.
Slow-motion commercial meltdown
The expansion of remote work and e-commerce (two byproducts of the pandemic) drastically reduced demand for office and retail space, especially in major metros. An estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial loans are maturing in 2024 and 2025, but depressed property values combined with high financing costs and vacancy rates could make it difficult for owners to clear their debt.3 In April 2024, an estimated $38 billion of office buildings were threatened by default, foreclosure, or distress, the highest amount since 2012.4
In a televised interview on 60 Minutes in February, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the mounting losses in commercial real estate are a “sizable problem” that could take years to resolve, but the risks to the financial system appear to be manageable.5
Locked-up housing market
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from around 3.2% in the beginning of 2022 to a 23-year high of nearly 8% in October 2023. Mortgage rates have ticked down since then but not as much as many people hoped. In May 2024, the average rate hovered around 7%.6
The inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low since the pandemic, but a nationwide housing shortage has been in the works for decades. The housing crash devastated the construction industry, and labor shortages, limited land, higher material costs, and local building restrictions have all been blamed for a long-term decline of new single-family home construction. Freddie Mac estimated the housing shortfall was 3.8 million units in 2021 (most recent data).7
Many homeowners have mortgages with ultra-low rates, making them reluctant to sell because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates. This “lock-in effect” has worsened the inventory shortage and cut deeply into home sales. At the same time, the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability and locked many aspiring first-time buyers out of homeownership.
In April 2024, inventories were up 16% over the previous year, but there was still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. (A market with a six-month supply is viewed as balanced between buyers and sellers.) The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million was up 34% over the previous year, which may help affluent buyers, but won’t do much to improve the affordability of entry-level homes.8
New construction kicking in
Newly built homes accounted for 33.4% of homes for sale in Q1 2024, down from a peak of 34.5% in 2022, but still about double the pre-pandemic share. The growth in market share for new homes was mostly due to the lack of existing homes for sale.9
April 2024 was the second highest month for total housing completions in 15 years, with 1.62 million units (measured on an annualized basis), including single-family and multi-family homes.10 This may cause apartment vacancies to trend higher, help slow rent growth, and allow more families to purchase brand new homes in the next few months.
Renters are seeing relief thanks to a glut of multi-family apartment projects that were started in 2021 and 2022 — back when interest rates were low — and are gradually becoming available. In Q1 2024, the average apartment rent fell to $1,731, 1.8% below the peak in summer 2023.11
Effects weave through the economy
By one estimate, the construction and management of commercial buildings contributed $2.5 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), generated $881.4 billion in personal earnings, and supported 15 million jobs in 2023.12 And according to the National Association of Realtors, residential real estate contributed an estimated $4.9 trillion (or 18%) to U.S. GDP in 2023, with each median-priced home sale generating about $125,000. When a home is purchased (new or existing), it tends to increase housing-related expenditures such as appliances, furniture, home improvement, and landscaping.13
Both real estate industries employ many types of professionals, and the development of new homes and buildings stimulates local economies by creating well-paying construction jobs and boosting property tax receipts. Development benefits other types of businesses (locally and nationally) by increasing production and employment in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, equipment, and components.
Shifts in real estate values, up or down, can influence consumer and business finances, confidence, and spending. And when buying a home seems unattainable, some younger consumers might give up on that goal and spend their money on other things.
If interest rates stay high for too long it could accelerate commercial loan defaults, losses, and bank failures, continue to constrain home sales, or eventually push down home values — and any of these outcomes would have the potential to cut into economic growth. When the Federal Reserve finally begins to cut interest rates, borrowing costs should follow, but that’s not likely to happen until inflation is no longer viewed as the larger threat.
1, 3) International Monetary Fund, January 18, 2024
2, 8, 10, 13) National Association of Realtors, 2024
4) The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2024
5) CBS News, February 4, 2024
6–7) Freddie Mac, 2022–2024
9) Redfin, May 20, 2024
11) Moody’s, April 1, 2024
12) NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association, 2024
Tax Treatment of Home Energy Rebates
The IRS has provided guidance on the federal income tax treatment of certain home energy rebates offered by states, with funds provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
Background
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included two provisions allowing rebates for home energy efficiency retrofit projects and home electrification and appliance projects. These home energy rebate programs are to be administered by state energy offices, with the DOE providing guidance and oversight.
For a home energy efficiency retrofit project with at least 20% predicted energy savings, a rebate may be available per household for 80% of project costs, up to $4,000 (reduced to 50% of project costs, up to $2,000, if household income is above 80% of area median income (AMI)). For a home energy efficiency retrofit project with at least 35% predicted energy savings, a rebate may be available per household for 80% of project costs, up to $8,000 (reduced to 50% of project costs, up to $4,000, if household income is above 80% of AMI).
For a home electrification and appliance project, a rebate may be available per household for 100% of project costs, up to specific technology cost maximums, with a maximum total of $14,000. The 100% of project costs limit is reduced to 50% if household income is above 80% of AMI. This rebate is not available if household income is above 150% of AMI. The specific technology cost maximums range from $840 for an Energy Star electric stove to $8,000 for an Energy Star electric heat pump for space heating and cooling.
Treatment of DOE home energy rebates to purchasers
A rebate paid to or on behalf of a purchaser pursuant to either of the DOE home energy rebate programs is not includible in the purchaser’s gross income. However, it will be treated as a purchase price adjustment for the purchaser for federal income tax purposes.
To the extent the rebate is provided at the time of sale, the rebate is not included in the purchaser’s cost (or tax) basis in the property. To the extent the rebate is provided later, the tax basis is reduced.
Treatment of DOE home energy rebates to certain business taxpayers
Payments of rebate amounts made directly to a business taxpayer, such as a contractor, in connection with the business taxpayer’s sale of goods or provision of services to a purchaser are includable in the business taxpayer’s income.
Coordination of DOE home energy rebates with the energy efficient home improvement credit
In some cases, a taxpayer can receive an energy efficient home improvement credit for federal income tax purposes. The credit is for 30% of amounts paid for certain qualified expenditures, with limits on the allowable annual credit and on the amount of credit for certain types of qualified expenditures. The maximum annual credit amount may be up to $3,200.
If the taxpayer receives a DOE home energy rebate (whether at the time of sale or later), the amount of qualified expenditures used to calculate the energy efficient home improvement credit must be reduced by the amount of the rebate. If the taxpayer purchases items eligible for both the DOE home energy rebate and the energy efficient home improvement credit, the taxpayer can make a pro rata allocation of amounts received as rebates to the individually itemized expenditures as a share of total project cost in determining the amounts treated as paid or incurred for such items for purpose of the various limits on costs under the energy efficient home improvement credit.
Relief for Certain RMDs from Inherited Retirement Accounts for 2024
IRS issued in 2022, a proposed regulations regarding required minimum distributions (RMDs) to reflect changes made by the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019. The IRS has held off on releasing final regulations so that it can address additional changes to RMDs made by the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022. In the meantime, the IRS has issued interim relief and guidance for certain RMDs from inherited retirement accounts for 2024. The IRS anticipates that final RMD regulations, when issued, will apply starting in 2025.
RMD basics
Certain RMDs must be taken from individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and employer retirement accounts, or a penalty will apply. IRA owners and employees with employer retirement plans must generally take RMDs during their lifetime.
RMDs are generally required to begin by April 1 of the year after the individual reaches RMD age. RMD age is 70½ (if born before July 1, 1949), 72 (if born July 1, 1949, through 1950), 73 (if born in 1951 to 1959), or 75 (if born in 1960 or later). An employee still working for the employer maintaining an employer retirement account may be able to wait until April 1 of the year after the employee retires (if that is later and the plan allows it). The applicable April 1 date is often referred to as the required beginning date (RBD).
Lifetime distributions are not required from Roth accounts and, as a result, Roth account owners are always treated as dying before their RBD. Prior to 2024, these two special rules for Roth accounts applied to Roth IRAs, but not to Roth employer retirement plans.
Beneficiaries must also take RMDs from an inherited retirement account (including Roth accounts) after the death of an IRA owner or employee.
Inherited IRAs and retirement plans
RMDs for IRAs and retirement plans inherited before 2020 could generally be spread over the life expectancy of a designated beneficiary. The SECURE Act changed the RMD rules by requiring that in most cases the entire account must be distributed 10 years after the death of the IRA owner or employee if there is a designated beneficiary (and if death occurred after 2019). However, an exception allows an eligible designated beneficiary to take distributions over their life expectancy and the 10-year rule would not apply until after the death of the eligible designated beneficiary in that case.
Eligible designated beneficiaries include a spouse or minor child of the IRA owner or employee, a disabled or chronically ill individual, and an individual no more than 10 years younger than the IRA owner or employee. The entire account would also need to be distributed 10 years after a minor child reaches the age of majority (i.e., distributed at age 31).
The proposed regulations issued in early 2022 surprised many when they suggested that annual distributions are also required during the first nine years of such 10-year periods in most cases. Comments on the proposed regulations sent to the IRS asked for some relief because RMDs had already been missed and a 25% penalty tax (50% prior to 2023) is assessed when an individual fails to take an RMD.
The IRS announced that it will not assert the penalty tax in certain circumstances where individuals affected by the RMD changes failed to take annual distributions in 2024 during one of the 10-year periods. (Similar relief was previously provided for 2021, 2022, and 2023.) For example, relief may be available if the IRA owner or employee died in 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 and on or after their RBD (see “RMD basics” above) and the designated beneficiary who is not an eligible designated beneficiary did not take annual distributions for 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 as required (during the 10-year period following the IRA owner’s or employee’s death). Relief might also be available if an eligible designated beneficiary died in 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 and annual distributions were not taken in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 as required (during the 10-year period following the eligible designated beneficiary’s death).
The rules relating to RMDs are complicated, and the consequences of making a mistake can be severe. Talk to a tax professional to understand how the rules apply to your individual situation.
What Stubborn Inflation Could Mean for the U.S. Economy
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics April 10, 2024 released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, and the increase in CPI — the most cited measure of inflation — was higher than expected. The rate for all items (headline inflation) was 3.5% over the previous year, while the “core CPI” rate, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was even higher at 3.8%. The month-over-month change was also higher than anticipated at 0.4%.1
The stock market dropped sharply on this news and continued to slide over the following days, while economists engaged in public handwringing over why their projections had been wrong and what the higher numbers might mean for the future path of interest rates. In fact, most projections were off by just 0.1% — core CPI was expected to increase by 3.7% instead of 3.8% — which hardly seems earth-shattering to the casual observer. But this small difference suggested that inflation was proving more resistant to the Federal Reserve’s high interest-rate regimen.2
It’s important to keep in mind that the most dangerous battle against inflation seems to have been won. CPI inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, and there were fears of runaway inflation like the 1980s. That did not happen, and inflation declined steadily through the end of 2023. The issue now is that there has been upward movement during the first three months of 2024.3 This is best seen by looking at the monthly rates, which capture the current situation better than the 12-month rates. March 2024 was the third month in a row of increases that point to higher inflation.
High for longer
While price increases hit consumers directly in the pocketbook, the stock market reacted primarily to what stubborn inflation might mean for the benchmark federal funds rate and U.S. businesses. From March 2022 to July 2023, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the funds rate from near-zero to the current range of 5.25%–5.5%, to slow the economy and hold back inflation. At the end of 2023, with inflation apparently moving firmly toward the Fed’s target of 2%, the FOMC projected three quarter-percentage point decreases in 2024, and some observers expected the first decrease might be this spring. Now it’s clear that the Fed will have to wait to reduce rates.4–5
Higher interest rates make it more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow. For businesses, this can hold back expansion and cut into profits when revenue is used to service debt. This is especially difficult for smaller companies, which often depend on debt to grow and sustain operations. Tech companies and banks are also sensitive to high rates.6
In theory, high interest rates should hold back consumer spending and help bring prices down by suppressing demand. So far, however, consumer spending has remained strong. In March 2024, personal consumption expenditures — the standard measure of consumer spending — rose at an unusually strong monthly rate of 0.8% in current dollars or 0.5% when adjusted for inflation.7 The job market has also stayed strong, with unemployment below 4% for 26 consecutive months and wages rising steadily.8 The fear of keeping interest rates high for too long is that it could slow the economy too much, but that is clearly not the case, making it difficult for the Fed to justify rate cuts.
What’s driving inflation?
The Consumer Price Index measures price changes in a fixed market basket of goods and services, and some inputs are weighted more heavily than others. The cost of shelter is the largest single category, accounting for about 36% of the index and almost 38% of the March increase in CPI.9 The good news is that measurements of shelter costs — primarily actual rent and estimated rent that homeowners might receive if they rented their homes — tend to lag current price changes, and other measures suggest that rents are leveling or going down.10
Two lesser components contributed well above their weight. Gas prices, which are always volatile, made up only 3.3% of the index but accounted for 15% of the overall increase in CPI. Motor vehicle insurance prices made up just 2.5% of the index but accounted for more than 18% of the increase. Together, shelter, gasoline, and motor vehicle insurance drove 70% of March CPI inflation. On the positive side, food prices made up 13.5% of the index and rose by only 0.1%, effectively reducing inflation.11
While the Fed pays close attention to the CPI, its preferred inflation measure is the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which places less emphasis on shelter costs, includes a broader range of inputs, and accounts for changes in consumer behavior. Due to these factors, PCE inflation tends to run lower than CPI. The annual increase in March was 2.7% for all items and 2.8% for core PCE, excluding food and energy. The monthly increase was 0.3% for both measures.12
Although these figures are closer to the Fed’s 2% target, they are not low enough in the face of strong employment and consumer spending to suggest the Fed will reduce interest rates anytime soon. It’s also unlikely that the Fed will raise rates. For now, the central bank seems poised to give current interest rates more time to push inflation down to a healthy level, ideally without significant slowing of economic activity.13
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful. Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.
1, 3, 8–9, 11) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
2)The New York Times, April 10, 2024
4) Federal Reserve, 2023
5) Forbes, December 5, 2023
6) The Wall Street Journal, April 15, 2024
7, 12) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024
10) NPR, April 18, 2024
13) Bloomberg, April 19, 2024
What to Know About T Plus 1 Trade Settlement
On May 28, 2024, settlement cycles on U.S. stocks and other securities will shift from two business days to one. For most investors, this shift will have little or no impact. But it will affect some investors and certain types of transactions. It may be helpful to understand the basics of this important change.
T+1 vs. T+2
The trade date (T) is the day your order to buy or sell a security is executed. The settlement date is the day your order is finalized, and when the funds used to purchase the security and any sold securities must be delivered. Put simply, T+1 means most transactions will settle on the next business day after the trade.
For example, under the current T+2 protocol, if you sell shares of a stock on a Monday, the transaction will settle in two business days on Wednesday. Beginning on May 28, 2024, if you sell shares of a stock on a Monday, the transaction will settle in one business day on Tuesday.
Who will T+1 affect?
T+1 will have minimal or no impact on most investors because most brokerage firms require cash or sufficient margin in an account prior to the investor entering any orders to purchase securities in the account. However, if your brokerage firm allows you to make a purchase without sufficient funds in the account, under T+1 you will need to deliver a check or initiate a funds transfer so that the funds are deposited in your brokerage account no later than the next business day.
Another potential effect of T+1 on some investors may be the tighter timeframe to deliver paper certificates for securities that are sold. This is rare today, because investors typically hold securities in their accounts electronically, and the shorter timeframe should not affect electronic transfers. However, if you do wish to sell a security for which you hold a paper certificate, you should be prepared to deliver it to the brokerage firm no later than the next business day after the trade is executed.
Securities affected include stocks, bonds, exchange-traded funds, certain mutual funds, municipal securities, real estate investment trusts, and master limited partnerships traded on U.S. exchanges. This change will not affect government bonds and options as their settlement is already set at T+1.
Establishing accurate cost basis
When selling a security, any capital gains taxes are calculated using the security’s cost basis, which is the initial amount invested plus any commissions or fees and reinvested dividends and distributions. Under most circumstances, the change to T+1 will have no effect on figuring cost basis. However, if you purchased a security through more than one brokerage firm, you would have one less day to provide information on the previous purchase(s) to your current firm. Once settlement is complete, your cost basis is established for tax purposes. The best practice is to make sure your current brokerage has full cost-basis information on any securities purchased at previous brokerages.
For more information, see IRS Publication 550, which offers detailed guidance on how to calculate cost basis under different circumstances.
Convenience and close attention
For some investors, one-day settlement may mean greater convenience. In effect, an investor will fully own a security one day sooner than under the current system. This could be helpful for an investor who wants to trade the security quickly or wants to participate in a proxy vote. However, T+1 will also require some investors to pay closer attention to how the shorter settlement time could affect investment, trading, or tax decisions.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful.
FAFSA Glitches Delay College Financial Aid Awards for 2024-25
It’s been a tough financial aid season for college students and their families. The FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) was redesigned and simplified for the 2024-25 school year, in what was supposed to benefit families completing the application. But a late rollout and the subsequent discovery of form calculation errors have led to processing delays and, by extension, delays for colleges sending out student financial aid packages for the 2024-25 school year.
Both new and returning college students are affected because students must submit the FAFSA each year to be eligible for federal financial aid. But the series of delays may be particularly painful for new students who are waiting to review and compare financial aid packages from multiple colleges before making a final decision by the general May 1 college admissions deadline.
A slow rollout for the new, simplified FAFSA
The FAFSA Simplification Act (part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021) gave the go-ahead for a shorter, more streamlined FAFSA. The new, simplified form was heralded as a bipartisan breakthrough and a win for families trying to navigate and complete the application. The full redesign was scheduled to take effect with the 2023-24 FAFSA but was delayed a year due to the pandemic.
The new 2024-25 FAFSA arrived with almost two-thirds fewer questions and a mandatory IRS direct data exchange tool to import income information from tax returns, two changes intended to make the form easier to complete. But the public rollout of the 2024-25 FAFSA was delayed three months, from the usual October 1 open date to December 31, 2023. This extra time was due to several new calculations and adjustments to the aid formula and the technical integration needed to embed them into the form. Along with a new aid formula, the terminology changed too: a new “student aid index” (SAI) replaced the well-known “expected family contribution” (EFC) as the yardstick for measuring a student’s aid eligibility.
Subsequent calculation errors
Once the 2024-25 FAFSA opened in late December, various online glitches disrupted public access to the form during the month of January. Then on January 30, the Department of Education announced that inflation adjustments were being made to the aid calculation, which opened a potential additional $1.8 billion in aid but would delay processing of the form until March, leading to delays in families receiving aid awards from colleges. (In a typical year when the FAFSA is available in October, students can start receiving college aid awards by the end of the calendar year, though timelines vary by college.)
Then on March 22, the Department of Education announced another form error that affected the student aid index calculation for dependent students who reported assets, requiring another round of reprocessing for all affected applications. The Department continues to provide information and tools for families on studentaid.gov about completing the 2024-25 FAFSA.
Colleges and students left scrambling
In the meantime, colleges need time to review incoming FAFSAs, model student aid eligibility, and package and communicate financial aid offers to students. The result is that high school seniors may not receive their financial aid packages from colleges until April, May, or even June, which means they might have to commit to a college by the May 1 deadline without fully knowing how much it will cost them out-of-pocket.
Families with high school seniors may want to contact individual colleges to see when aid packages might be expected and/or whether the college plans to extend its decision deadline beyond May 1. Returning students may also want to contact their college about their aid package. Due to the new FAFSA formula for calculating aid, returning students may discover that their aid eligibility (in the form of their student aid index) is higher or lower now, which could affect their aid package.
Source) U.S. Department of Education, 2024
International Investing: The Diverging Fortunes of China and Japan
The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed markets outside of the United States, advanced 15% in 2023, while U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index returned 24%.1 One of the world’s hottest developed stock markets was in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 rose 28% in 2023, delivering the best performance in Asia.2 On the other hand, in China — which is still considered an emerging market — the benchmark CSI 300 Index lost more than 11% over the same period.3
Investing internationally provides growth opportunities that may be different than those in the United States, which could help boost returns and/or enhance diversification in your portfolio. It may help to consider the risks, economic forces, and government policies that might continue to impact stock prices in these two news-making Asian markets and elsewhere in the world.
A tale of two economies
Ranked by gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of a nation’s business activity, China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States.4 Japan fell from third place to fourth, behind Germany, at the end of 2023.5
In February 2024, the Nikkei surpassed a peak last seen in 1989.6 Conversely, Chinese stocks fell more than 40% from their peak in June 2021, before turning up slightly in February and March.7
GDP growth in Japan has been lackluster; in fact, the nation barely averted a recession at the end of 2023.8 What has been driving the market’s outperformance? After battling deflation (or falling prices) for more than two decades, the emergence of inflation in Japan has been good for businesses. Japanese companies have been putting their capital to work, growing profits, and returning them to shareholders, which has attracted foreign investors. A weaker yen helped by making Japanese products cheaper overseas.9 The Bank of Japan ended the era of negative interest rates when it raised short-term rates on March 19, 2024.10
China’s GDP growth slowed to about 5.2% in 2023, as weaker consumption and investment cut into business activity. China is still growing faster than most advanced nations, but it’s contending with a years-long real estate crisis.11 Deflation has set in, while underemployment and youth unemployment have risen to high levels, damaging consumer confidence.12 Moreover, a visible government crackdown on the private sector has rattled investors and scared away many foreign firms.13 In early 2024, the Chinese government took steps to help stabilize the stock market that included boosting liquidity, supporting property developers, and encouraging more bank lending and homebuying.14
Global economic outlook
The International Monetary Fund sees a path to a soft landing for the global economy, projecting steady growth of 3.1% for 2024, about the same rate as 2023. Inflation, which has fallen rapidly in most regions, is expected to continue its descent.15
The downside risks to this hopeful outlook include fiscal challenges, high debt levels, and lingering economic strain from high interest rates. Price spikes caused by geopolitical conflict, supply disruptions, or more persistent underlying inflation could prevent central banks from loosening monetary policies. The possibility of further deterioration in China’s property sector is another cause for concern.16
A world of opportunity
It can be more complicated to perform due diligence and identify sound investments in unfamiliar and less transparent foreign markets, and there are potential risks that may be unique to a specific country. Mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a relatively effortless way to invest in a variety of international stocks. International funds range from broad global funds that attempt to capture worldwide economic activity, to regional funds and others that focus on a single country. The term “ex U.S.” or “ex US” typically means that the fund does not include domestic stocks, whereas “global” or “world” funds may include a mix of U.S. and international stocks.
Some funds are limited to developed nations, whereas others concentrate on nations with emerging (or developing) economies. The stocks of companies located in emerging nations might offer greater growth potential, but they are riskier and less liquid than those in more advanced economies. For any international stock fund, it’s important to understand the mix of countries represented by the underlying securities.
It may be tempting to increase your exposure to a booming foreign market. However, chasing performance might cause you to buy shares at high prices and suffer more severe losses when conditions shift. And if your long-term investment strategy includes international stocks, be prepared to hold tight — or take advantage of lower prices — during bouts of market volatility.
Diversification is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. The return and principal value of all stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Supply and demand for ETF shares may cause them to trade at a premium or a discount relative to the value of the underlying shares. Foreign securities carry additional risks that may result in greater share price volatility, including differences in financial reporting and currency exchange risk; these risks should be carefully managed with your goals and risk tolerance in mind. Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not happen.
Mutual funds and ETFs are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.
1) London Stock Exchange Group, 2024
2) CNBC.com, December 28, 2023
3, 7) Yahoo! Finance, 2024 (data for the period 6/01/2021 through 3/20/2024)
4, 13) The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2024
5) CNBC.com, February 14, 2024
6, 9) The Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2024
8, 10) CNBC.com, March 19, 2024
11, 15–16) International Monetary Fund, January 2024
12) The Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2024
14) Bloomberg, February 7, 2024
Can Productivity Keep Driving the U.S. Economy?
Productivity of U.S. workers increased by 2.7% in 2023 — well above the average annual rate of 2.1% since the end of World War II, and a dramatic change from 2022, when productivity dropped by 2.0%. It’s also a substantial improvement over the 0.9% growth rate in 2021.1
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, “Productivity growth is a primary driver of long-term economic growth and improvements in living standards.”2 On a more immediate level, the productivity surge in 2023 may help explain why the U.S. economy was able to grow at a strong pace while inflation dropped.
Doing more with less
Broadly, productivity is the ratio of output to inputs. A productivity increase means that output increases faster than input, essentially producing more with less.
The most cited productivity measure for the U.S. economy is labor productivity for the nonfarm business sector (the data cited in the first paragraph of this report). In simple terms, this is the value of goods and services produced per hour of labor. The nonfarm business sector comprises most U.S. business activity excluding farms, general government, and nonprofits.
Boosting GDP while fighting inflation
The 2.7% increase in 2023 means that, on average, 2.7% more value was created for each hour of labor. This helps boost gross domestic product (GDP), while also helping to control inflation by holding back the wage-price spiral, which can push inflation out of control.
In a tight employment market, as we have had for some time, a shortage of workers can force businesses to offer higher wages, which they pass on to consumers as higher prices. Because consumers are then earning more at their jobs, they demand more goods and services and are willing to pay higher prices, which pushes businesses to hire more workers at higher wages, continuing the cycle. Increased productivity allows business to keep prices lower even as they pay workers more. This seems to have occurred in 2023, with average hourly wages rising by 4.3%, while inflation dropped to 3.4% — the first time since the pandemic that wages increased faster than inflation.3
Compensating for demographics
Increasing productivity is especially important for the U.S. economy because of lower birth rates, the aging of the population, and more young people staying in school. The labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of people age 16 and older who are working or looking for work, peaked in early 2000 and has trended downward since then.4 Higher productivity enables a smaller workforce to drive economic growth on a level that would require a larger workforce without productivity gains.
Why is productivity increasing and can it be sustained?
Increases in labor productivity are typically driven by improved tools and technology, more efficient processes and organizations, and increased worker experience, education, and training. The proliferation of computers in the workplace spurred a productivity surge in the 1990s, and some analysts point to artificial intelligence (AI) as contributing to the 2023 increase. It’s possible that AI has already improved some businesses, but any large-scale impact may take years, as businesses integrate AI through worker training and new processes. As this unfolds, AI could help drive a long-term productivity surge.
A more immediate explanation for the current increase may be adjustment and experience with the hybrid work model. A recent survey found that 43% of remote workers felt working from home makes them more productive, while only 14% believed it makes them less productive. (Another 43% said it makes no difference.)5 The ideal situation would allow employees to work in the most productive environment. Three years after the pandemic, businesses may be improving that balance, and it’s possible that further developments in hybrid work could continue to drive productivity gains for some time.
New businesses can spur productivity through innovation, filling specialized niches, and producing specific goods or services more efficiently. New business applications surged during and after the pandemic, with more than 20 million from 2020 to 2023. Only about 10% of applications turn into businesses, but some new enterprises may already be making a difference, and the surge of entrepreneurship bodes well for future productivity.6
A less positive factor may be that some companies laid off employees and made other changes in 2023 in anticipation of a recession that never materialized. Layoffs typically target the least productive employees, and remaining employees may increase their productivity to maintain production levels. While this “lean” model is not always sustainable, it can boost productivity in the short term, and technology and more efficient processes may enable some businesses to stay lean.
Volatile data
Measuring productivity is difficult, especially in service industries, which now comprise the largest sector of U.S. economic activity. For this reason, productivity data can be volatile and often changes with revision. (The 2.7% Q4 data is preliminary.) Even so, the surge in 2023 seems solid, and enhancements such as artificial intelligence, hybrid work, and new business innovation could usher in a sustained period of productivity growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases productivity data quarterly, with Q1 2024 data coming in May. You might keep an eye out for a continuing trend.
1, 3–4) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
2) Congressional Research Service, January 3, 2023
5) Bloomberg, January 30, 2024
6) U.S. Chamber of Commerce, February 2, 2024
Tax Relief Legislation in “Progress”?
Legislation that could benefit parents and business-owners is currently moving through Congress. The House has passed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. It now faces an uncertain future in the Senate. The legislation would make changes to the child tax credit and to certain business tax provisions. Some significant provisions in the legislation that may provide tax relief are summarized below.
Child tax credit provisions
If enacted, the legislation may increase the availability and amount of the child tax credit.
- The formula for calculation of the refundable portion of the child tax credit would be modified to take into account the number of children a parent has (effective for 2023, 2024, and 2025).
- The overall limit on the refundable portion of the child tax credit would increase from $1,600 in 2023 and $1,700 in 2024 to $1,800 in 2023, $1,900 in 2024, and $2,000 in 2025.
- The $2,000 maximum child tax credit would be adjusted for inflation in 2024 and 2025.
- In 2024 and 2025, earned income from the prior taxable year would be able to be used in calculating the maximum child tax credit if earned income for the current year is less than earned income for the prior year.
Business tax provisions
The legislation includes several business tax provisions that generally allow the acceleration of expense deductions.
- Under current law, domestic research or experimental expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, must be deducted over a five-year period. The legislation would allow such expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, and before January 1, 2026, to be fully deductible in the year paid or incurred.
- For purposes of calculating the limitation on the deduction of business interest, the legislation would allow adjusted taxable income to be determined without regard to any allowance for depreciation, amortization, or depletion for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2023, and before January 1, 2026 (with similar treatment for 2022 and 2023, if elected).
- In recent years, the special additional first-year depreciation allowance, or bonus depreciation, has been decreasing under current law — reaching 80% in 2023 and 60% in 2024. The legislation would allow 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before January 1, 2026.
- Section 179 expensing allows the cost of qualified property to be expensed, rather than recovered through depreciation. The maximum amount that can be expensed is $1,220,000 in 2024, reduced to the extent the cost of Section 179 property placed in service during the year exceeds $3,050,000 in 2024. The legislation would increase those amounts to $1,290,000 and $3,220,000 in 2024 (and adjust for inflation in 2025).
