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Posts from the ‘Government & Regulatory’ Category

28
Feb

Tax Relief Legislation in “Progress”?

Legislation that could benefit parents and business-owners is currently moving through Congress. The House has passed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. It now faces an uncertain future in the Senate. The legislation would make changes to the child tax credit and to certain business tax provisions. Some significant provisions in the legislation that may provide tax relief are summarized below.

Child tax credit provisions

If enacted, the legislation may increase the availability and amount of the child tax credit.

  • The formula for calculation of the refundable portion of the child tax credit would be modified to take into account the number of children a parent has (effective for 2023, 2024, and 2025).
  • The overall limit on the refundable portion of the child tax credit would increase from $1,600 in 2023 and $1,700 in 2024 to $1,800 in 2023, $1,900 in 2024, and $2,000 in 2025.
  • The $2,000 maximum child tax credit would be adjusted for inflation in 2024 and 2025.
  • In 2024 and 2025, earned income from the prior taxable year would be able to be used in calculating the maximum child tax credit if earned income for the current year is less than earned income for the prior year.

Business tax provisions

The legislation includes several business tax provisions that generally allow the acceleration of expense deductions.

  • Under current law, domestic research or experimental expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, must be deducted over a five-year period. The legislation would allow such expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, and before January 1, 2026, to be fully deductible in the year paid or incurred.
  • For purposes of calculating the limitation on the deduction of business interest, the legislation would allow adjusted taxable income to be determined without regard to any allowance for depreciation, amortization, or depletion for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2023, and before January 1, 2026 (with similar treatment for 2022 and 2023, if elected).
  • In recent years, the special additional first-year depreciation allowance, or bonus depreciation, has been decreasing under current law — reaching 80% in 2023 and 60% in 2024. The legislation would allow 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before January 1, 2026.
  • Section 179 expensing allows the cost of qualified property to be expensed, rather than recovered through depreciation. The maximum amount that can be expensed is $1,220,000 in 2024, reduced to the extent the cost of Section 179 property placed in service during the year exceeds $3,050,000 in 2024. The legislation would increase those amounts to $1,290,000 and $3,220,000 in 2024 (and adjust for inflation in 2025).
24
Jan

January 24, 2024 Starts the 2023 Federal Tax Filing

IRS suggest steps to make tax filing easier

  • Make sure you have received Form W-2 and other earnings information, such as Form 1099, from employers and payers. The dates for furnishing such information to recipients vary by form, but they are generally not required before February 1, 2024. You may need to allow additional time for mail delivery.
  • Go to irs.gov to find the federal individual income tax returns, Form 1040 and Form 1040-SR (available for seniors born before January 2, 1959), and their instructions.
  • File electronically and use direct deposit.
  • Check irs.gov for the latest tax information.

Key dates to keep in mind

  • January 12. IRS Free File opened. IRS Free File Guided Tax Software, available only at irs.gov, allows participating software companies to accept completed tax returns of any taxpayer or family with an adjusted gross income of $79,000 or less in 2023 and hold them until they can be electronically filed with the IRS starting January 29. Beginning January 29, Free File Fillable forms will be available to taxpayers of any income level to fill out and e-file themselves at no cost.
  • January 29. IRS begins accepting and processing individual tax returns.
  • April 15. Deadline for filing 2023 tax returns (or requesting an extension) for most taxpayers.
  • April 17. Deadline for taxpayers living in Maine or Massachusetts.
  • October 15. Deadline to file for those who requested an extension on their 2023 tax returns.

Tax refunds

The IRS encourages taxpayers seeking a tax refund to file their tax return as soon as possible. The IRS expects to issue most tax refunds within 21 days of their receiving a tax return if the return is filed electronically, the tax refund is delivered through direct deposit, and there are no issues with the tax return. To avoid delays in processing, the IRS encourages people to avoid  paper tax returns whenever possible.

25
Oct

2023 Year-End Tax Tips to Consider

This is a good time to review your tax situation for 2023. Allow enough time to complete the changes before year-end. Check with your custodian for the deadlines for completing  by December 31, 2023.  Following are some actions to consider before the end of the year. Many of these items will depend on your expected tax bracket in 2023 compared to 2024.

1. Defer income to next year

Consider opportunities to defer income to 2024, particularly if you think you may be in a lower tax bracket then. For example, you may be able to defer a year-end bonus or delay the collection of business debts, rents, and payments for services. Doing so may enable you to postpone payment of tax on the income until next year.

2. Accelerate deductions

Consider opportunities to accelerate deductions into the current tax year. If you itemize deductions, making payments for deductible expenses such as qualifying interest, state taxes, and medical expenses before the end of the year rather early in 2024. Alternating, payments in 2014 may result in a benefit by exceeding the standard deduction.  

3. Make deductible charitable contributions

If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct charitable contributions, but the deduction is limited to 50% (currently increased to 60% for cash contributions to public charities), 30%, or 20% of your adjusted gross income (AGI), depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. (Excess amounts can be carried over for up to five years.)

There may be an advantage if you contribute appreciated securities. The gain on the securities will not be taxed if you held the security for more than a year.

For those 701/2 or older it may be beneficial to use direct payments using your required minimum distributions (Qualified Charitable Distributions.)  To qualify for this strategy, it is important to meet the  IRS requirement.  

4. Increase withholding to cover a tax shortfall

If you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for the remainder of the year to cover the shortfall. Time may be limited for employees to request a Form W-4 change and for their employers to implement it in time for 2023. The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used to make up for low or missing quarterly estimated tax payments.

You can also have tax withheld from distributions from some financial accounts.

5. Save more for retirement

Deductible contributions to a traditional IRA and pre-tax contributions to an employer-sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k) can reduce your 2023 taxable income. If you haven’t already contributed up to the maximum amount allowed, consider doing so. For 2023, you can contribute up to $22,500 to a 401(k) plan ($30,000 if you’re age 50 or older) and up to $6,500 to traditional and Roth IRAs combined ($7,500 if you’re age 50 or older).* The window to make 2023 contributions to an employer plan generally closes at the end of the year, while you have until April 15, 2024, to make 2023 IRA contributions.

*Roth contributions are not deductible, but Roth qualified distributions are not taxable.

6. Take required minimum distributions

If you are age 73 or older, you generally must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans (special rules apply if you’re still working and participating in your employer’s retirement plan). You have to make the withdrawals by the date required — the end of the year for most individuals. The penalty for failing to do so is substantial: 25% of any amount that you failed to distribute as required (10% if corrected in a timely manner).

7.  Weigh year-end investment moves

You should not let tax considerations drive your investment decisions. However, it’s worth considering the tax implications of any year-end investment moves that you make. For example, if you have realized net capital gains from selling securities at a profit, you might avoid being taxed on some or all of those gains by selling losing positions. Any losses over and above the amount of your gains can be used to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 if your filing status is married filing separately) or carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years.

28
Sep

What Happens if There is a Government Shutdown?

There are only a few days till the U.S. government may shutdown. It is possible that a last-minute agreement could avoid a shutdown. Following is an abbreviated summary of the federal funding process, the current situation in Congress, and the potential consequences of a failure to fund government operations.

Twelve appropriations bills

The federal fiscal year begins on October 1, and under normal procedures 12 appropriations bills for various government sectors should be passed by that date to fund activities ranging from defense and national park operations to food safety and salaries for federal employees.

These appropriations are considered discretionary spending, meaning that Congress has flexibility in setting the amounts. Although discretionary spending is an ongoing source of conflict, it accounted for only 27% of federal spending in FY 2023, and almost half of that was for defense, which is typically less of a point of conflict. Mandatory spending (including Social Security and Medicare), which is required by law, accounted for about 63%, and interest on the federal debt accounted for 10%.1

It is obvious that it would be helpful for federal agencies to know their operating budgets in advance of the fiscal year, but all 12 appropriations bills have not been passed before October 1 since FY 1997. In 11 of the last 13 years, lawmakers have not passed a single spending bill in time.2 That is the situation as of September 27 this year. (One bill, to fund military construction and the Department of Veterans Affairs, has been passed by the House but not the Senate.)3

Continuing resolutions and omnibus spending bills

To delay further budget negotiations, Congress typically passes a continuing resolution, which extends federal spending to a specific date, generally at or based on the same level as the previous year. These bills are essentially placeholders that keep the government open until full-year spending legislation is enacted. Since 1998, it has taken an average of almost four months after the beginning of the fiscal year for that year’s final spending bill to become law.4

Even with the extension provided by continuing resolutions, Congress seldom passes the 12 appropriations bills. Instead, they are often combined into massive omnibus spending bills that may include other provisions that do not affect funding. For example, the SECURE 2.0 Act, which fundamentally changed the retirement savings rules, was included in the omnibus spending bill for FY 2023, passed in late December 2023, almost three months into the fiscal year.

Current Congressional situation

The U.S. Constitution gives the House of Representatives sole power to initiate revenue bills, so the House typically passes funding legislation and sends it to the Senate. There are often conflicts between the two bodies, especially when they are controlled by different parties, as they are now. These conflicts are typically settled through negotiations after a continuing resolution extends the budget process.

The Senate acted first this year, releasing bipartisan legislation on September 26 that would maintain current funding through November 17 and provide additional funding for disaster relief and the war in Ukraine. Although this is likely to pass the Senate later in the week, it was unclear how the House would react to the legislation.5

Late on September 26, the House cleared four appropriation bills for debate (Agriculture, Defense, Homeland Security, and State Department). It is unknown whether these bills will pass the House, and if they do, it will be too late to negotiate the provisions with the Senate. A proposed continuing resolution that would extend government funding and include new provisions for border security had not been cleared for debate as of the afternoon of September 27.6

Effects of a shutdown

The effects of a government shutdown depend on its length, and fortunately, most are short. There have been 20 shutdowns since the current budget process began in the mid-1970s, with an average length of eight days. The longest by far was the most recent shutdown, which lasted 35 days in December 2018 and January 2019, and demonstrates some potential consequences of an extended closure.7 However, in 2018-19, five of the 12 spending bills had already passed before the shutdown — including large agencies like Defense, Education, and Health & Human Services — which helped limit the damage. The current impasse, with no appropriations passed, could lead to an even more painful situation.8

Some things will not be affected: The mail will be delivered. Social Security checks will be mailed. Interest on U.S. Treasury bonds will be paid.9 However, some programs will stop immediately, including the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, which helps to provide food for about 7 million low-income mothers and children.10

Federal workers will not be paid. Workers considered “essential” will be required to work without pay, while others will be furloughed. Lost wages will be reimbursed after funding is approved, but this does not help lower-paid employees who may be living paycheck to paycheck.11 In an extended shutdown, the greatest hardship would fall on lower-paid essential workers, which would include many military families. Furloughed workers would struggle as well, but they might look for other jobs, and in many states would be able to apply for unemployment benefits.12 (Members of Congress, who are paid out of a permanent appropriation that does need renewal, would continue to be paid.)13

Air travel could be affected. In 2019, absenteeism more than tripled among Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers, resulting in long lines, delays, and gate closures at some airports. According to the TSA,  many workers took time off for financial reasons.14 Air traffic controllers, who are better paid, remained on the job without pay and without normal support staff. However, on January 25, 2019, an increase in absences by controllers temporarily shut down New York’s La Guardia airport and led to substantial delays at airports in Newark, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. This may have been an impetus to reopen the government later that day.15

Unlike federal employees, workers for government contractors are not guaranteed to be paid, and contractors often work side-by-side with federal employees in government agencies. In 2019, it was estimated that 1.2 million contract employees faced lost or delayed revenue of more than $200 million per day.16 A more widespread shutdown would put even more workers at risk.

While essential workers will maintain some federal services, furloughed workers would leave significant gaps. At this time, it’s unknown exactly how each agency will respond to a shutdown. In 2019, some national parks used alternate funding to maintain limited access, which caused problems with trash and vandalism and was deemed illegal by the Government Accounting Office. This year, all parks might be closed during an extended shutdown.17 Many other federal services may be delayed or suspended, ranging from food inspections to small business loans and economic reports.18 Delays in economic statistics could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to judge appropriate policy.19

Although a shutdown would cause temporary hardship for workers and the citizens they serve, the long-term effect on the economy would be relatively benign, because lost payments are generally made up after spending is authorized. A shutdown might decrease gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, but if the shutdown ends by the end of the year, GDP for the first quarter of 2024 would theoretically be increased. Even if delayed spending is recovered, however, lost productivity by furloughed workers will not be regained. And an extended shutdown could harm consumer and investor sentiment.20

Surprisingly, previous shutdowns generally have not hurt the broad stock market, other than short-term reactions. But the current market situation is delicate to begin with, and it is impossible to predict future market direction.21

For now, it’s wise to maintain a steady course in your own finances. In the event of a shutdown, be sure to check the status of federal agencies and services that may affect you directly.

All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.

1) Congressional Budget Office, May 2023

2, 4, 8) Pew Research Center, September 13, 2023

3)  Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, September 27, 2023

5, 6, 9, 18, 19) The Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2023

7, 11)  CNN, September 21, 2023

10) MarketWatch, September 26, 2023

12) afge.org, September 25, 2023 (American Federation of Government Employees)

13) CBS News, September 25, 2023

14) Associated Press, January 21, 2019

15) The Washington Post, January 25, 2019

16) Bloomberg, January 17, 2019

17) Bloomberg Government, September 12, 2023

20) Congressional Research Service, September 22, 2023

21) USA Today, September 26, 2023

27
Jul

RMD Relief and Guidance for 2023

Earlier IRS proposed regulations regarding required minimum distributions (RMDs) reflected  changes made by the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019. IRS delayed releasing final regulations to include changes to RMDs made by the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022, which was passed in late 2022. IRS issued interim RMD relief and guidance for 2023. Final RMD regulations, when issued, will not apply before 2024.

Relief with respect to change in RMD age to 73

The RMD age is the age at which IRA owners and employees must generally start taking distributions from their IRAs and workplace retirement plans. There is an exception that may apply if an employee is still working for the employer sponsoring the plan. (For Roth IRAs, RMDs are not required during the lifetime of the IRA owner.)

The SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 increased the general RMD age from 72 to 73 (for individuals reaching age 72 after 2022). Since then, some individuals reaching age 72 in 2023 have taken distributions for 2023 even though they do not need to take a distribution until they reach age 73 under the changes made by the legislation.

Distributions, other than RMDs which cannot be rolled over, from IRAs and other workplace retirement plans can generally be rolled over tax-free to another retirement account within 60 days of the distribution. The 60-day window for a rollover may already have passed for some individuals who took distributions that were not required in 2023.

To help those individuals, the IRS is extending the deadline for the 60-day rollover period for certain distributions until September 30, 2023. Specifically, the relief is available with respect to any distributions made between January 1, 2023, and July 31, 2023, to an IRA owner or employee (or the IRA owner’s surviving spouse) who was born in 1951 if the distributions would have been RMDs but for the change in the RMD age to 73.

Generally, only one rollover is permitted from a particular IRA within a 12-month period. The special rollover allowed under this relief is permitted even if the IRA owner or surviving spouse has rolled over a distribution in the last 12 months. However, making such a rollover will preclude the IRA owner or surviving spouse from rolling over a distribution in the next 12 months. However, an individual could still make direct trustee-to-trustee transfers since they do not count as rollovers under the one-rollover-per-year rule.

Inherited IRAs and retirement plans

Before the SECURE Act, RMDs for IRAs and retirement plans inherited before 2020 could generally be spread over the life expectancy of a designated beneficiary. The SECURE Act changed the RMD rules by requiring that in most cases the entire account must be distributed 10 years after the death of the IRA owner or employee if there is a designated beneficiary (and if death occurred after 2019). However, an exception allows an eligible designated beneficiary to take distributions over their life expectancy and the 10-year rule would not apply until after the death of the eligible designated beneficiary in that case.

Eligible designated beneficiaries include a spouse or minor child of the IRA owner or employee, a disabled or chronically ill individual, and an individual no more than 10 years younger than the IRA owner or employee. The entire account would also need to be distributed 10 years after a minor child reaches the age of majority (i.e., at age 31).

The proposed regulations issued in early 2022 surprised many when they suggested that annual distributions are also required during the first nine years of such 10-year periods in most cases. Comments on the proposed regulations sent to the IRS asked for some relief because RMDs had already been missed and a 25% penalty tax (50% prior to 2023) is assessed when an individual fails to take an RMD.

The IRS has announced that it will not assert the penalty tax in certain circumstances where individuals affected by the RMD changes failed to take annual distributions in 2023 during one of the 10-year periods. (Similar relief was previously provided for 2021 and 2022.) For example, relief may be available if the IRA owner or employee died in 2020, 2021, or 2022 and on or after their required beginning date (The required beginning date is usually April 1 of the year after the IRA owner or employee reaches RMD age. Roth IRA owners are always treated as dying before their required beginning date) and the designated beneficiary who is not an eligible designated beneficiary did not take annual distributions for 2021, 2022, or 2023 as required (during the 10-year period following the IRA owner’s or employee’s death). Relief might also be available if an eligible designated beneficiary died in 2020, 2021, or 2022 and annual distributions were not taken in 2021, 2022, or 2023 as required (during the 10-year period following the eligible designated beneficiary’s death).

13
Jun

Congress Tells Treasury to Expect SECURE 2.0 Technical Fixes

Congress sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel late in May,   that it will introduce legislation to correct several technical errors in the SECURE 2.0 Act. The letter, signed by Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Mike Crapo (R-ID), chair and ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, respectively, and Representatives Jason Smith (R-MO) and Richard Neal (D-MA), chair and ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, respectively, describes four provisions in SECURE 2.0 with problematic language.

  1. Startup tax credit for small employers adopting new retirement plans.
  2. Change in the required minimum distribution (RMD) age from 73 to 75.
  3. SIMPLE IRA and SEP plan Roth Accounts
  4. Requirement that catch-up contributions be made on  a Roth basis for high earners.

Startup tax credits for small employers

Section 102 of SECURE 2.0 provides for two tax-credit enhancements for small businesses who adopt new retirement plans, beginning in 2023.

First, for employers with 50 employees or fewer, the pension plan startup tax credit increases from 50% of qualified startup costs to 100%, with a maximum allowable credit of $5,000 per year for the first three years the plan is in effect.

Second, the Act offers a new tax credit for employer contributions to employee accounts for the first five tax years of the plan’s existence. The amount of the credit is a maximum of $1,000 for each participant earning not more than $100,000 in income (adjusted for inflation). Each year, a specific percentage applies, decreasing from 100% to 25%. The credit is reduced for employers with 51 to 100 employees; no credit is available for those with more than 100 employees.

The letter notes, “The provision could be read to subject the additional credit for employer contributions to the dollar limit that otherwise applies to the startup credit. However, Congress intended the new credit for employer contributions to be in addition to the startup credit otherwise available to the employer.”

Change in RMD age.

Numerous comments noted that a technical correction is needed for Section 107 of the Act, which raised the RMD age from 72 to 73 beginning this year, and then again to 75 in 2033. The intention was to increase the age to 73 for those who reach age 72 after December 31, 2022, and to 75 for those who reach age 73 after December 31, 2032. However, the provision could be misinterpreted to mean the age-75 rule applies to those who reach age 74 after December 31, 2032.

SIMPLE IRA and SEP Roth accounts

Section 601 of the Act permits SIMPLE IRAs and Simplified Employee Pension plans to include a Roth IRA. The provision could have been interpreted that the provision was meant  that SEP and SIMPLE IRA contributions must be included when determining annual Roth IRA contribution limits. As the letter explains, “Congress intended that no contributions to a SIMPLE IRA or SEP plan (including Roth contributions) be taken into account for purposes of the otherwise applicable Roth IRA contribution limit.”

Roth catch-up contributions for high earners

Addressing what the American Retirement Association called a “significant technical error” in Section 603, the letter clarified a rule surrounding catch-up contributions for high earners. Specifically, the rule’s intent was to require catch-up contributions for those earning more than $145,000 to be made on an after-tax, Roth basis beginning in 2024; however, language in a “conforming change” detailed in the provision could be interpreted to effectively eliminate the ability for all participants to make any catch-up contributions.

The congresspeople’s letter clarified that, “Congress did not intend to disallow catch-up contributions nor to modify how the catch-up contribution rules apply to employees who participate in plans of unrelated employers. Rather, Congress’s intent was to require catch-up contributions for participants whose wages from the employer sponsoring the plan exceeded $145,000 for the preceding year to be made on a Roth basis and to permit other participants to make catch-up contributions on either a pre-tax or Roth basis.”

No time frame given.

Although the letter provided no specific period for introducing the corrective legislation, it did indicate that such legislation may also include additional items. Stay tuned.

2
May

Rescuing America’s Safety Net

A March 2023 survey found that more than 90% of Americans worry about the Social Security program, and about half of those said they worry a great deal.1 A separate survey the same month found that more than 80% of Americans worry Medicare will not be able to provide the same level of benefits in the future.2

These concerns are well-founded, because both programs — the cornerstones of “America’s Safety Net” — face serious fiscal challenges that require Congressional action. And the longer Congress waits to act, the more extreme the solutions will have to be. Even so, it’s important to keep in mind that neither of these programs is in danger of collapsing completely. The question is what type of changes will be required to rescue them.

Demographic Dilemma

The fundamental problem facing both programs is the aging of the American population. Today’s workers pay taxes to fund benefits received by today’s retirees, and with lower birth rates and longer life spans, there are fewer workers paying into the programs and more retirees receiving benefits for a longer period. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers for each Social Security beneficiary;  in 2023 there are 2.7, dropping steadily to 2.2 by 2045.3

Dwindling Trust Funds

Payroll taxes from today’s workers, along with income taxes on Social Security benefits, go into interest-bearing trust funds. During times when payroll taxes and other income exceeded benefit payments, these funds built up reserve assets. But now the reserves are being depleted as they supplement payroll taxes and other income to meet scheduled benefit payments.

Each year, the Trustees of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds provide detailed reports to Congress that track the programs’ current financial condition and projected financial outlook. These reports have warned for years that the trust funds would be depleted in the not-too-distant future, and the most recent reports, both released on March 31, 2023, suggest that the future may arrive even sooner than expected.

Social Security Outlook

Social Security consists of two programs, each with its own trust fund. Retired workers and their families and survivors receive monthly benefits under the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program; disabled workers and their families receive monthly benefits under the Disability Insurance (DI) program.

The OASI Trust Fund reserves are projected to be depleted in 2033, one year earlier than in last year’s report, at which time incoming revenue would pay only 77% of scheduled benefits. Reserves in the much smaller DI Trust Fund, which is on stronger footing, are not projected to be depleted during the 75-year period ending 2097.4

Under current law, these two trust funds cannot be combined, but the Trustees  also provide an estimate for the combined program, referred to as OASDI. This would extend full benefits another year, to 2034, at which time, incoming revenue would pay only 80% of scheduled benefits.5

Put simply, the current outlook suggests that Social Security beneficiaries might face a benefit cut of 23% in a decade unless Congress takes action.

Medicare Outlook

Medicare also has two trust funds. The Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund pays for inpatient and hospital care under Medicare Part A. The Supplementary Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund comprises two accounts: one for Medicare Part B physician and outpatient costs and the other for Medicare Part D prescription drug costs.

The HI trust fund reserves are projected to be depleted in 2031. This is three years later than in last year’s report, due to lower costs and higher payroll taxes, but still more imminent than the Social Security shortfall. At that time, revenue would pay only 89% of the program’s costs.6

The SMI Trust Fund accounts for Medicare Parts B and D are expected to have sufficient funding because they are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund, which provides about 75% of costs, a major outlay from the federal budget.7

Possible Fixes

The Trustees of both programs continue to urge Congress to address these financial shortfalls soon, so that solutions will be less drastic and may be implemented gradually.

Any permanent fix to Social Security would likely require a combination of changes, including some of these.8

  • Raise the Social Security payroll tax rate  (currently 12.4%, half paid by the employee and half by the employer). An immediate and permanent payroll tax increase to 15.84% would be necessary to address the long-range revenue shortfall (or to 16.55% if the increase started in 2034).9
  • Raise the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($160,200 in 2023).
  • Raise the full retirement age (currently 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later).
  • Change the benefit calculation formula.
  • Use a different index to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustment.
  • Tax a higher percentage of benefits for higher-income beneficiaries.

Options for reducing the Medicare shortfall include a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. These are some possibilities.10

  • Improve the payment system for Medicare Advantage Plans  (private plans that receive partial funding from Medicare).
  • Modernize cost sharing between Medicare and Medigap (supplementary insurance).
  • Increase the Medicare payroll tax rate  (currently 2.9%, shared equally between employee and employer, with an additional 0.9% on income above $200,000 for single filers and $250,000 for joint filers).11
  • Broaden the tax base subject to Medicare payroll taxes (there is no income ceiling for Medicare payroll taxes, but certain income is currently not subject to the tax).

Based on past changes to these programs, it’s likely that any future changes would primarily affect future beneficiaries and have a relatively small effect on those already receiving benefits. While neither Social Security nor Medicare is in danger of disappearing, it would be wise to maintain a strong retirement savings strategy to prepare for potential changes to America’s Safety Net.

All projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.

1) Gallup, April 6, 2023

2) Kaiser Family Foundation, March 2023

3–5, 9) 2023 Social Security Trustees Report

6–7, 11) 2023 Medicare Trustees Report

8) Social Security Administration, February 21, 2023

10) Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, June 16, 2022

1
Mar

Ceiling and Deficit Spending

The U.S. government reached its statutory limit, commonly called the debt ceiling, January 19,2023. The current limit was set by Congress at about  $31.4 trillion in December 2021.1

Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, started well-established “extraordinary measures” to allow necessary borrowing for a limited period the same day. While Yellen projects the extension will last until early June, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates it may last until sometime between July and September. However, the CBO cautions that if April tax revenues fall short of its projections, the Treasury could run out of funds earlier.2–3

Flexibility vs. Fiscal Fights

A debt ceiling was first established in 1917 to give the federal government more flexibility to borrow during World War I. Previously, all borrowing had to be authorized by Congress in very specific terms, which made it difficult for the government to respond to changing needs.4

The modern debt ceiling, which aggregates almost all government debt under one limit, was established in 1939. Since 1960, it has been raised, modified, or suspended 78 times, mostly with little fanfare. That changed in 2011, when a political battle over the ceiling pushed the Treasury so close to the edge that Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit rating of the U.S. government.5–6

The debt ceiling limits the amount that the U.S. Treasury can borrow to meet financial obligations already authorized by Congress. It does not authorize future spending. However, beginning with the bitter battle of 2011, it has been used as leverage for partisan negotiations over government spending. With the White House and the House of Representatives — which must authorize spending — held by different parties, this year’s negotiations could be particularly difficult.

Potential Consequences

If the debt ceiling is not raised in a timely manner, the U.S. government could default on its financial obligations, resulting in unpaid bills, higher interest rates, and a loss of faith in U.S. government securities that would reverberate throughout the global economy. While it’s unlikely that the current situation will lead to a default,  pushing negotiations close to the edge can be damaging in itself. It was estimated that the 2011 impasse cost U.S. taxpayers $1.3 billion in increased borrowing costs in FY 2011 with additional costs in the following years.7

The Deficit and the Debt

The federal government runs at a deficit when tax revenues are not sufficient to meet spending obligations. Federal spending has outpaced revenue for the last 50 years, except from 1998 to 2001.8 Annual budget deficits add to the national debt.

The current debt of $31.4 trillion is the highest in U.S. history.9 Measuring the debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) is a better comparison over time.  Economists look at debt held by the public — funds the government has borrowed to meet operational expenses and liabilities, primarily through issuing Treasury securities. Interagency debt — funds borrowed from government accounts such as the Social Security trust funds — is also subject to the limit but does not directly affect the economy or federal budget.

At the end of fiscal year 2022 (September 30, 2022), debt held by the public was equivalent to 97% of GDP. In 2019, before the pandemic, it was 79% of GDP, and  in 2007, before the Great Recession, it  was 35%. Both crises caused a significant increase of the deficit and debt due to lower tax revenues and high spending on government stimulus programs. The last time the debt exceeded current levels was at the end of World War II.10-11

A February 2023 analysis, the CBO projected that the debt will rise steadily over the next decade to 118% of GDP in 2033, which would be the highest percentage  in U.S. history. The driving forces behind this increase would be higher spending on Social Security and Medicare, and rising interest costs (due to increasing debt  and higher rates). If current laws remain unchanged, the debt is projected  to rise even more quickly in the next two decades, reaching 195% of GDP in 2053.12

No Easy Answer

The only way to change this trajectory is to increase revenue, reduce spending, or both. The best scenario would be decades of high GDP growth that increases revenue at current tax rates, but this seems unlikely. The CBO projects real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to average a tepid 1.7% annually over the next decade.13 Raising tax rates may be necessary, but that is always a difficult political option.

There is little room to maneuver on the spending side. Only 28% of federal spending is “discretionary,” meaning Congress can set amounts through annual appropriations bills, and almost half of that spending goes to national defense, which few leaders would want to cut in the current global climate. The rest is mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare (which will account for nearly 36% of federal spending in  2023) and interest on the national debt.14 While both parties have indicated that Social Security and Medicare are off the table, other mandatory spending could be reduced through Congressional action.

The White House is expected to release  its budget proposal for FY 2024 this month, followed by a counterproposal from House Republicans in April, setting up what is sure to be an intense period of budget negotiations. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have already begun to discuss the debt ceiling issue, and it remains to be seen whether the ceiling can be addressed outside of the budget process or whether it will be caught in the crosshairs. In either case, the ceiling will have to be raised or suspended in order to maintain U.S. government operations.

U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Forecasts are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.

1, 3, 10, 12–14) Congressional Budget Office, 2023

2, 6, 9) U.S. Treasury, 2023

4–5) Bipartisan Policy Center, 2023

7) U.S. Government Accountability Office, July 23, 2012

8, 11) U.S. Office of Management and Budget, 2023

23
Feb

REAL ID Deadline Extended Again

After years of numerous delays, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security has once again extended the  REAL ID enforcement deadline from May 3, 2023, until May 7,  2025. 1

What is a REAL ID?

A REAL ID is a type of enhanced identification card. The REAL ID Act, passed by Congress in 2005, set minimum security standards for state-issued driver’s licenses and identification cards. Under the Act, residents of every state and territory are required to have a REAL ID-compliant license/identification card, or another acceptable form of identification (such as a passport), in order to:

  • Access federal facilities
  • Board federally regulated commercial aircraft
  • Enter nuclear power plants

When traveling internationally,  you will still need your passport for identification purposes, including travel to Canada or Mexico.  If you are traveling domestically, you will only need to show your REAL ID or another acceptable alternative.

In order for a REAL ID license or identification card to be compliant,  it must have a star marking on the upper portion of the card.  Enhanced Driver’s Licenses that are issued in Michigan, Minnesota,  New York, Vermont and Washington do not have a star marking but are still acceptable alternatives  to REAL ID-compliant cards and will be accepted for official REAL ID purposes.

How Do You Get a REAL ID?

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) oversees the enforcement and implementation of the REAL ID Act, but each state’s driver’s licensing agency has its own process for issuing REAL ID-compliant license/identification cards.

In order to obtain a REAL ID, you will need to provide  documentation that shows your:

  • Full legal name, date of birth, proof of lawful presence (e.g., U.S. passport, birth certificate)
  • Social Security Number (Some states may not require physical documentation of your Social Security Number.)
  • Two proofs of address of principal residence (e.g., driver’s license, utility bill)

If you have a name change (e.g., marriage, divorce or court order), you will also need to bring in documentation that demonstrates proof of your name change. States may impose additional requirements, so be sure to contact your state’s driver’s licensing agency for more information.

1)  U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2023

 

17
Aug

Highlights of the Inflation Reduction Act High

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law on August 16, 2022, includes healthcare and energy-related provisions, a new corporate alternative minimum tax,  and an excise tax on certain corporate stock buybacks. Additional funding is also provided to the IRS. Some significant provisions in the Act are discussed below.

Medicare

The legislation authorizes the Department of Health and Human Services to negotiate Medicare prices for certain high-priced, single-source drugs. However, only 10 of the most expensive drugs will be chosen initially, and the negotiated prices will not take effect until 2026. For each of the following years, more negotiated drugs will be added.

Starting in 2025, a $2,000 annual cap (adjusted for inflation) will apply to out-of-pocket costs for Medicare Part D prescription drugs.

Deductibles will not apply to covered insulin products under Medicare Part D or under Part B for insulin furnished through durable medical equipment until 2023,  . Also, the applicable copayment amount for covered insulin products will be capped at $35 for a one-month supply.

Health Insurance

Starting in 2023, a high-deductible health plan can provide that the deductible does not apply to selected insulin products.

Affordable Care Act subsidies (scheduled to expire at the end of 2022) that improved affordability and reduced health insurance premiums have been extended through 2025. Indexing of percentage contribution rates used in determining a taxpayer’s required share of premiums is delayed until after 2025, preventing more significant premium increases. Additionally, those with household incomes higher than 400% of the federal poverty line remain eligible for the premium tax credit through 2025.

Energy-Related Tax Credits

Many current energy-related tax credits have been modified and extended, and a few new credits have been added. Many of the credits are available to businesses, and others are available to individuals. The following two credits are substantial revisions and extensions of an existing tax credit for electric vehicles.

Starting in 2023, a tax credit of up to $7,500 is available for the purchase of new clean electric vehicles meeting certain requirements. The credit is not available for vehicles with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price higher than $80,000 for sports utility vehicles and pickups, $55,000 for other vehicles. The credit is not available if the modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of the purchaser exceeds $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers and surviving spouses, $225,000 for heads of household). Starting in 2024, an individual can elect to transfer the credit to the dealer as payment for the vehicle.

Similarly, a tax credit of up to $4,000 is available for the purchase of certain previously owned clean electric vehicles from a dealer. The credit is not available for vehicles with a sales price exceeding $25,000. The credit is not available if the purchaser’s MAGI exceed $75,000 ($150,000 for joint filers and surviving spouses, $75,000 for heads of household). An individual can elect to transfer the credit to the dealer as payment for the vehicle.

Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax

For taxable years beginning after December 31, 2022, a new 15% alternative minimum tax (AMT) will apply to corporations (other than an S corporation, regulated investment company, or a real estate investment trust) with an average annual adjusted financial statement income more than $1 billion.

Adjusted financial statement income means the net income or loss of the taxpayer set forth in the corporation’s financial statement (often referred to as book income), with certain adjustments. If regular tax exceeds the tentative AMT, the excess amount can be carried forward as a credit against the AMT in future years.

Excise Tax on Repurchase of Stock

For corporate stock repurchases after December 31, 2022, a new 1% excise tax will be imposed on the value of a covered corporation’s stock repurchases during the taxable year.

A covered corporation means any domestic corporation whose stock is traded on an established securities market. However, the excise tax does not apply: (1) to a repurchase that is part of a nontaxable reorganization, (2) with respect to certain contributions of stock to an employer-sponsored retirement plan or employee stock ownership plan, (3) if the total value of stock repurchased during the year does not exceed $1 million, (4) to a repurchase by a securities dealer in the ordinary course of business, (5) to repurchases by a regulated investment company or a real estate investment trust, or (6) to the extent the repurchase is treated as a dividend for income tax purposes.

Increased Funding for the IRS

Substantial additional funds are provided to the IRS to help fund operations and business systems modernization and to improve enforcement of tax laws.