Hostage Data: Ransomware and Protecting Your Digital Information
On May 7, 2021, the Colonial Pipeline, which carries almost half of the East Coast’s fuel supply from Texas to New Jersey, shut down operations in response to a ransomware attack. Colonial paid a $4.4 million ransom not long after discovering the attack, and the pipeline was reopened within a week. While there was enough stored fuel to weather the outage, panic buying caused gasoline shortages on the East Coast and pushed the national average price of gasoline over $3.00 per gallon for the first time since 2014.1
Ransomware is not new, but the Colonial Pipeline incident demonstrated the risk to critical infrastructure and elicited strong response from the federal government. Remarkably, the Department of Justice recovered most of the ransom, and the syndicate behind the attack, known as DarkSide, announced it was shutting down operations.2
The Department of Homeland Security issued new regulations requiring owners and operators of critical pipelines to report cybersecurity threats within 12 hours of discovery, and to review cybersecurity practices and report the results within 30 days.3 On a broader level, the incident increased focus on government initiatives to strengthen the nation’s cybersecurity and create a global coalition to hold countries that shelter cybercriminals accountable.4
Malicious Code
Ransomware is malicious code (malware) that infects the victim’s computer system, allowing the perpetrator to lock the files and demand a ransom in return for a digital key to restore access. Some attackers may also threaten to reveal sensitive data. There were an estimated 305 million ransomware attacks globally in 2020, a 62% increase over 2019. More than 200 million of them were in the United States.5
The recent surge in high-profile ransomware attacks represents a shift by cybercriminal syndicates from stealing data from “data-rich” targets such as retailers, insurers, and financial companies to locking data of businesses and other organizations that are essential to public welfare. A week after the Colonial Pipeline attack, JBS USA Holdings, which processes one-fifth of the U.S. meat supply, paid an $11 million ransom.6 Health-care systems, which spend relatively little on cybersecurity, are a prime target, jeopardizing patient care.7 Other common targets include state and local governments, school systems, and private companies of all sizes.8
Ransomware gangs, mostly located in Russia and other Eastern European countries, typically set ransom demands in relation to their perception of the victim’s ability to pay, and high-dollar attacks may be resolved through negotiations by a middleman and a cyber insurance company. Although the FBI discourages ransom payments, essential businesses and organizations may not have time to reconstruct their computer systems, and reconstruction can be more expensive than paying the ransom.9
Protecting Your Data
While major ransomware syndicates focus on more lucrative targets, plenty of cybercriminals prey on individual consumers, whether locking data for ransom, gaining access to financial accounts, or stealing and selling personal information. Here are some tips to help make your data more secure.10
Use strong passwords and protect them. An analysis of the Colonial Pipeline attack revealed that the attackers gained access through a leaked password to an old account with remote server access.11 Strong passwords are your first line of defense. Use at least 8 to 12 characters with a mix of upper- and lower-case letters, numbers, and symbols. Longer and more complex passwords are better. Do not use personal information or dictionary words.
One technique is to use a passphrase that you can remember and adapt. For example, Jack and Jill went up the hill to fetch a pail of water could be J&jwuth!!2faPow. Though it’s tempting to reuse a strong password, it is safer to use different passwords for different accounts. Consider a password manager program that generates random passwords, which you can access through a strong master password. Do not share or write down your passwords.
No easy answers. Be careful when establishing security questions that can be used for password recovery. It may be better to use fictional answers that you can remember. If a criminal can guess your answer through available information (such as an online profile), he or she can reset your password and gain access to your account.
Take two steps. Two-step authentication, typically a text or email code sent to your mobile device, provides a second line of defense even if a hacker has access to your password.
Think before you click. Ransomware and other malicious code are often transferred to the infected computer through a “phishing” email that tricks the reader into clicking on a link. Never click on a link in an email or text unless you know the sender and have a clear idea where the link will take you.
Install security software. Install antivirus software, a firewall, and an email filter — and keep them updated. Old antivirus software won’t stop new viruses.
Back up your data. Back up regularly to an external hard drive. For added security, disconnect the drive between backups.
Keep your system up-to-date. Use the most recent operating system that can run on your computer and download security updates. Most ransomware attacks target vulnerable operating systems and applications.
If you see a notice on your computer that you have been infected by a virus or that your data is being held for ransom, it’s more likely to be a fake pop-up window than an actual attack. These pop-ups typically have a phone number to call for “technical support” or to make a payment. Do not call the number and do not click on the window or any links. Try exiting your browser and restarting your computer. If you continue to receive a notice or your data is really locked, contact a legitimate technical support provider.
For more information and other tips, visit the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency website at us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/tips.
1–2, 11) Vox, June 8, 2021
3) U.S. Department of Homeland Security, May 27, 2021
4) The Washington Post, June 4, 2021
5) 2021 SonicWall Cyber Threat Report
6) The Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2021
7) Fortune, December 5, 2020
8) Institute for Security and Technology, 2021
9) The New Yorker, June 7, 2021
10) Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency, 2021
Shortages and Bottlenecks Expose Weak Links in U.S. Supply Chains
U.S. consumers won’t soon forget the troubling shortages of personal protective equipment during the early days of the pandemic, or when the first stay-at-home orders spurred panic buying and stress-inducing shortages of toilet paper, cleaning products, and food.
Now, as the economy reopens fully and all at once, consumers are again experiencing a wide array of shortages. Businesses are having trouble hiring workers as well as acquiring sufficient supplies of raw materials and key components needed for manufacturing.
Businesses that shut down or cut back when the economy was closed could not ramp up quickly enough to meet a flood of demand in the spring of 2021. The speedy rollout of widespread COVID-19 vaccinations unleashed this pent-up demand faster than expected, catching many businesses off-guard. At the same time, the flow of goods ordered from overseas was slowed by shipping bottlenecks.
Some of these supply disruptions were triggered or worsened by extraordinary calamities, and panic buying by consumers and businesses intensified the more serious shortages.
Here’s a look at some of the events that have stressed corporate supply chains and impacted the economy — regionally, nationally, and globally — in the first half of 2021.
Gas crisis
In mid-May, a ransomware attack led to the multi-day shutdown of a 5,500-mile pipeline responsible for supplying 45% of the fuel on the East Coast. Existing stockpiles might have held up, but news of the outage caused a run on gasoline, and states of emergency were declared by the governors of North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia, and Florida. The average price of a gallon of gasoline spiked to a six-and-a-half-year high, but increases were larger in states that rely heavily on the pipeline.1-2
Trade disrupted
Longer delivery times caused shortages of some raw materials and many types of consumer goods purchased from overseas. Congestion in the busiest West Coast ports left dozens of huge container ships from all over the world anchored off the California coast, waiting to unload. These log jams peaked in February 2021, when imports surged. Now that port workers can be vaccinated, operators are aiming to clear the backlog by the summer.3 In March, a six-day blockage of the Suez Canal by a grounded cargo ship caused massive disruption in international trade. Globally, container ship capacity is stretched and demand is high, so costs could remain elevated for some time.4
Texas freeze
In mid-February, a brutal winter storm knocked out the power grid in Texas, shut down numerous chemical plants, and froze the production of plastics used for packaging and materials needed to make many goods, including auto parts, computers, PVC piping, and paint. This resulted in global shortages, production delays, and higher costs for manufacturers and homebuilders, which will likely be passed on to buyers.5
The same storm closed major chicken-processing plants. Large losses of chicks and eggs, on top of COVID-19–related staffing problems, caused a nationwide chicken shortage and price hikes for restaurants.6
Lumber and housing
When the pandemic hit, many U.S. lumber mills were closed, and the expectation was that housing demand would falter. However, after a brief pause, demand for homes and home remodeling took off, surprising builders and domestic lumber producers. The price of lumber was already rising due to tariffs, but it has skyrocketed more than 300% since April 2020 and caused the price of a new single-family home to increase by nearly $36,000.7
Chips and cars
A global shortage of semiconductors, or computer chips, is limiting the production of all kinds of goods, including home appliances, cars, PCs, gaming systems, servers, and 5G equipment. The effects of the chip shortage are far-reaching but most evident in the market for new and used cars. Auto makers have been forced to cut production of more than 1.2 million vehicles in North America. Dealer inventories are strained, and new and used car prices are causing sticker shock.8-9
The U.S. Senate is debating a bipartisan bill that would invest $100 billion in research, commercialization, and training programs to boost critical technologies, including the domestic production of semiconductors.10
Labor concerns
Some employers report having difficulty finding workers who are willing to take lower-paying jobs, and staffing issues are a contributing factor in the shortages. Some workers may be reluctant to accept jobs because the enhanced unemployment benefits provide more income than they would normally earn through work. For others, opportunities to participate in the workforce are more limited due to lack of child care or skill gaps. To attract much-needed workers, some large employers in the retail and restaurant industries have raised entry-level wages. At least 22 states plan to end the $300 federal benefit by this summer in a bid to spur more people to seek jobs.11
Hard lessons
Since the pandemic began, businesses have had to make difficult decisions amidst great uncertainty. Some supply constraints could ease in the coming months, but other problems, like the chip shortage, could take longer to resolve. Recent events also serve as a reminder that critical energy-control systems and infrastructure are vulnerable to cyberattacks and weather events, and that the damage can ripple throughout the economy when energy providers are knocked offline.
In April 2021, inflation shot up 4.2% over the previous year, the highest rate since 2008. Mismatches between supply and demand are pushing up consumer prices, which is one reason many economists believe the spring rise in inflation will be mostly “transitory.”12 Regardless, prices rarely fall once they have risen, which means even short-lived bursts of inflation can be painful for consumers.
The longer-term path of inflation is still unclear and could depend on economic policy decisions yet to be made. Moreover, the nation’s economic prospects will largely be determined by how U.S. businesses react to the challenges they are facing, and whether corporate leaders can reshape their strategies and invest in ways that strengthen their supply chains for the future.
1-2, 12) The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2021
3) Bloomberg, May 16, 2021
4) Bloomberg, May 3, 2021
5) The Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2021
6) Associated Press, April 25, 2021
7) CNBC.com, April 30, 2021
8-9) The Wall Street Journal, April 19 and May 13, 2021
10) Reuters, May 17, 2021
11) The Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2021
Crisis Averted? Financial Help for Struggling Renters and Landlords
By one estimate, U.S. landlords were owed about $57 billion in unpaid back rent at the beginning of 2021. The average household that fell behind owed about four months of rent, or $5,600. Altogether, more than 10 million U.S. families were facing the possibility of eviction.1
Many landlords, including those who depend on rent payments for retirement income, have experienced financial difficulties in lockstep with their heavily impacted tenants. Although multi-family apartment complexes are often owned by large corporations, about 90% of single-family rentals are owned by small investors who are facing the risk of mortgage default, bankruptcy, or forced property sales.2
Fortunately, the March 2021 federal stimulus bill added almost $22 billion in housing assistance to the $25 billion previously allocated by Congress.3 In many cases, payments are being sent directly to landlords through new or existing local programs on behalf of renters who meet certain eligibility requirements.
Program parameters
Under the Emergency Rental Assistance Program (ERAP), the U.S. Treasury has distributed grants to states, cities, and counties with populations greater than 200,000 to be used for back-due rent and utility bills accrued after March 13, 2020. Eligibility is limited to households that earn less than 80% of the area’s median income, as defined by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Applicants must document their incomes, prove they qualified for unemployment benefits or suffered financial hardship due to COVID-19 that impacted their ability to pay rent, and submit unpaid bills or notices that demonstrate they are at risk of becoming homeless.
What can landlords do?
Tenants and landlords generally apply for the funds together, but the application process and guidelines differ from program to program. In some states, landlords may be asked to forgive a percentage of the rental arrears in exchange for larger rent payments.
If you are a landlord, you might reach out to tenants who are behind on rent and encourage them to explore any potential opportunities for financial assistance. Check the websites of your state and local housing agencies to find the status and requirements of various housing programs and how to apply. Of course, many higher-earning households won’t be eligible for help, and in areas with lots of lower-income renters, local programs could run dry quickly.
Evicting tenants can be a painful and expensive process. If you have tenants who fell behind but are trying to catch up, it may be advantageous to work out a payment program instead to help keep them in place.
1) Moody’s Analytics, 2021
2) RealtyTrac, 2021
3) The Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2021
American Families Plan Would Provide Benefits for Some, More Taxes for Others
On April 28, 2021, the White House released a fact sheet for President Biden’s American Families Plan (AFP), which proposes about $1 trillion in investments and $800 billion in tax cuts. There would also be tax increases for those making more than $400,000 per year. Major provisions proposed in the plan are summarized here, including some tax provisions.
Education
The AFP proposes the following:
- Free universal pre-school for all three- and four-year olds.
- Two years of free community college.
- Increased assistance to low-income students by raising the maximum Pell Grant award that pays for college education by about $1,400.
Child care
Low- and middle-income families would pay no more than 7% of their income on child care.
Nutrition
Summer and school meal programs would be expanded for low-income families.
Unemployment insurance
Funds would be provided for unemployment system modernization, equitable access, and fraud prevention. The plan proposes to automatically adjust the length and amount of unemployment insurance benefits depending on economic conditions.
Paid leave
A national comprehensive paid family and medical leave program would be created and scaled in over a 10-year period.
Health insurance
- The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA 2021), enacted in March 2021, provided that persons who bought their own health insurance through a government exchange might qualify for a lower cost through December 31, 2022. The AFP would make that provision permanent.
- The AFP would also lower prescription drug prices by letting Medicare negotiate prices.
- In addition, the AFP would create a public option and the option for people to enroll in Medicare at age 60.
Child tax credit
ARPA 2021 made the following temporary changes to the child tax credit. For 2021, the credit amount increased from $2,000 to $3,000 per qualifying child ($3,600 for qualifying children under age 6), subject to phaseout based on modified adjusted gross income. The legislation also made 17-year-olds eligible as qualifying children in 2021. For most taxpayers, the credit is fully refundable for 2021 if it exceeds tax liability. The Treasury Department is expected to send out periodic advance payments (to be worked out by the Treasury) for up to one-half of the refundable credit during 2021.
The AFP would make permanent the full refundability of the child tax credit, and extend the other child tax credit provisions through 2025. Longer term, the plan would seek to make all these provisions permanent.
Child and dependent care tax credit
ARPA 2021 made the following temporary changes to the child and dependent care tax credit. For 2021, the legislation increased the maximum credit up to $4,000 for one qualifying individual and up to $8,000 for two or more (based on an increased applicable percentage of 50% of costs paid and increased dollar limits). Most taxpayers will not have the applicable percentage reduced (can be reduced from 50% to 20% if AGI exceeds a substantially increased $125,000) in 2021. However, the applicable percentage can now also be reduced from 20% down to 0% if the taxpayer’s AGI exceeds $400,000 in 2021. For most individuals, the credit is fully refundable for 2021 if it exceeds tax liability.
The AFP would make these provisions permanent.
Earned income tax credit
In addition to some other changes to the earned income tax credit (some temporary, some permanent), ARPA 2021 made the following temporary changes to the earned income tax credit for 2021. The legislation generally increased the credit available for individuals with no qualifying children (bringing it closer to the amounts for individuals with one, two, or three or more children which were already much higher). For individuals with no qualifying children, the minimum age at which the credit can be claimed was generally lowered from 25 to 19 (24 for certain full-time students) and the maximum age limit of 64 was eliminated (there are no similar age limits for individuals with qualifying children).
The AFP would make these provisions permanent for individuals with no qualifying children.
Increase in top tax rate on wealthiest taxpayers
The AFP would raise the top income tax rate on individuals back up to 39.6%, applying only to the top one percent. The 39.6% rate would also apply to the capital gains and dividends of households making over $1 million (the top 0.3 percent).
Stepped-up basis
The tax basis of most property is stepped-up (or down) to fair market value when an individual dies. The AFP would eliminate this step-up in basis for gains in excess of $1 million ($2.5 million per couple when combined with existing real estate exemptions). There would be provisions designed with protections for family-owned businesses and farms.
Like-kind exchanges
Current tax law allows real estate investors to defer taxes when they exchange property. The AFP would eliminate the tax deferral on like-kind exchanges for gains greater than $500,000.
Rising Inflation: Where Will It Go from Here?
In March 2021, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.6%, the largest one-month increase since August 2012. Over the previous 12 months, the increase was 2.6%, the highest year-over-year inflation rate since August 2018. (By contrast, inflation in 2020 was just 1.4%.). 1
The annual increase in CPI-U — often called headline inflation — was due in part to the fact that the index dropped in March 2020, the beginning of the U.S. economic shutdown in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, the current 12-month comparison is to an unusual low point in prices. The index dropped even further in April 2020, and this “base effect” will continue to skew annual data through June. 2
The monthly March increase, which followed a substantial 0.4% increase in February, is more indicative of the current situation. Economists expect inflation numbers to rise for some time. The question is whether they represent a temporary anomaly or the beginning of a more worrisome inflationary trend. 3
Measuring Prices
In considering the prospects for inflation, it’s important to understand some of the measures that economists use.
CPI-U measures the price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. As such, it is a good measure of prices consumers pay if they buy the same items over time, but it does not reflect changes in consumer behavior and can be unduly influenced by extreme increases in specific categories. Nearly half of the March increase was due to gasoline prices, which rose 9.1% during the month, in part because of production interruptions caused by severe winter storms in Texas.4 Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in March and just 1.6% year over year. 5
In setting economic policy, the Federal Reserve prefers a different inflation measure called the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is even broader than the CPI and adjusts for changes in consumer behavior — i.e., when consumers shift to purchase a different item because the preferred item is too expensive. More specifically, the Fed looks at core PCE, which rose 0.4% in March and 1.8% for the previous 12 months, slightly higher than core CPI but still lower than the Fed’s target of 2% for healthy economic growth. 6
A Hot Economy
Based on the core numbers, inflation is not yet running high, but there are clear inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy. Loose monetary policies by the central bank and trillions of dollars in government stimulus could create excess money supply as the economy reopens. Pent-up consumer demand for goods and services is likely to rise quickly, fueled by stimulus payments and healthy savings accounts built by those who worked through the pandemic with little opportunity to spend their earnings. Businesses that shut down or cut back when the economy was closed may not be able to ramp up quickly enough to meet demand. Supply-chain disruptions and higher costs for raw materials, transportation, and labor have already led some businesses to raise prices. 7
According to the April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 8.4% in the second quarter of 2021 and by 6.4% for the year — a torrid annual growth rate that would be the highest since 1984. As with the base effect for inflation, it’s important to keep in mind that this follows a 3.5% GDP decline in 2020. Even so, the expectation is for a hot economy through the end of the year, followed by solid 3.2% growth in 2022 before slowing down to 2.4% in 2023. 8-9
Three Scenarios
Will the economy get too hot to handle? Though all economists expect inflation numbers to rise in the near term, there are three different views on the potential long-term effects.
The most sanguine perspective, held by many economic policymakers including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is that the impact will be short-lived and due primarily to the base effect with little or no long-term consequences. 10 Inflation has been abnormally low since the Great Recession, consistently lagging the Fed’s 2% target. In August 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would allow inflation to run moderately above 2% for some time in order to create a 2% average over the longer term. Given this policy, the FOMC is unlikely to raise interest rates unless core PCE inflation runs well above 2% for an extended period. 11 The mid-March FOMC projection sees core PCE inflation at just 2.2% by the end of 2021, and the benchmark federal funds rate remaining at 0.0% to 0.25% through the end of 2023. 12
The second view believes that inflation may last longer, with potentially wider consequences, but that any effects will be temporary and reversible. The third perspective is that inflation could become a more extended problem that may be difficult to control. Both camps project that the base effects will be amplified by “demand-pull” inflation, where demand exceeds supply and pushes prices upward. The more extreme view believes this might lead to a “cost-push” effect and inflationary feedback loop where businesses, faced with less competition and higher costs, would raise prices preemptively, and workers would demand higher wages in response. 13
Maintaining Perspective
Although it’s too early to tell whether current inflation numbers will lead to a longer-term shift, you can expect higher prices for some items as the economy reopens. Consumers don’t like higher prices, but it’s important to keep these increases in perspective. Gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum prices are rising after being deeply depressed during the pandemic. Airline ticket prices are increasing but remain below their pre-pandemic level. Used cars and trucks are more expensive than before the pandemic, but clothing is still cheaper. 14 Food is up 3.5% over the last 12 months, a significant increase but not extreme for prices that tend to be volatile. 15
For now, it may be helpful to remember that “headline inflation” does not always represent the larger economy. And with interest rates near zero, the Federal Reserve has plenty of room to make any necessary adjustments to monetary policy.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass.
1, 5, 15) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021
2-4, 7) The Wall Street Journal, April 13, 2021
6, 9) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2021
8) The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, April 2021
10, 13) Bloomberg, March 29, 2021
11) The Wall Street Journal, April 14, 2021
12) Federal Reserve, 2021
14) The New York Times, April 13, 2021
High-Frequency Indicators: Where to Look for Signs of Recovery
Since the pandemic began, disruptions in business activity have varied greatly from region to region, and often from one week to the next, according to the severity of local COVID-19 outbreaks. Unfortunately, many of the official government statistics used to gauge the health of the U.S. economy are backward looking and somewhat delayed.
Changes in the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) indicate the rate at which the economy is growing or shrinking, but the first GDP estimate is not published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis until about one month after each quarter ends. GDP increased at a 4.3% rate in the fourth quarter of 2020 but posted the worst annual decline (-3.5%) since 1946. 1.
Rapid changes in virus conditions — for better or worse — can make many of the monthly reports that gauge employment, consumer spending, and production seem outdated and irrelevant by the time they are released. Consequently, economists and investors have been focusing on more timely data sources to monitor the economic impact of the pandemic throughout the nation. This information is reported every week, and in some cases every day, by government agencies or private companies with access to key business insights.
Here are some of the high-frequency indicators that may be helpful in evaluating the progress of the economic recovery.
Employment picture
A weekly report from the Department of Labor includes the number of new claims for unemployment insurance benefits under state programs filed by workers who recently lost their jobs, as well as the number of continuing claims filed by those who remain unemployed. This provides an early look at whether the labor market is improving or worsening on a state-by-state and national basis. For the week ending March 20, 2021, first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 684,000, the lowest level since before economic lockdowns began in mid-March of 2020. 2.
The ASA Staffing Index from the American Staffing Association tracks weekly changes in temporary and contract employment. Many employers rely on temporary help before hiring additional permanent employees, so staffing agency trends tend to lead nonfarm employment by three to six months. As of March 8-14, 2021, there were 11.2% more staffing jobs than there were one year earlier. 3
Consumer behavior
The proprietary Johnson Redbook Index captures consumer spending trends based on weekly data from a representative sample of thousands of large general merchandise and apparel retailers. In an encouraging sign, this key index improved 9.4% year-over-year on March 23, 2021. 4
The reservation app OpenTable has been monitoring the impact of COVID-19 on the hard-hit restaurant industry, providing data that doubles as an indicator of the “openness” of local economies around the world. Daily data shows changes in the number of people dining at restaurants compared with the same day of the same week in 2019. As of March 28, 2021, the weekly average number of U.S. seated diners was still down 29% from 2019, but had bounced back considerably from the last week in February, when the average was 40% below 2019. 5
Mobility and travel
Other technology companies rolled out tools designed to help public health officials and policymakers around the world monitor day-to-day mobility trends with data collected from smartphone apps. Google’s Community Mobility Reports show changes in visits to places like grocery stores, retail shops, and parks. Apple’s Mobility Trends Reports show changes in routing requests (since January 2019) for walking, driving, and public transportation trips, the latter of which have been slower to recover.6
The number of people who pass through U.S. airport checkpoints is posted daily by the Transportation Security Administration. On March 21, 2021, a spring-break surge caused the number of air travelers to rise above 1.5 million for the first time in about a year. Still, this total was far below the 2.2 million air travelers on the same Sunday in 2019. 7
The hotel occupancy rate (released weekly by STR) is another good indicator of the willingness of consumers and businesses to spend money on travel. U.S. hotel occupancy hit 58.9% in the week ending March 20, 2021, the highest level in a year. More importantly, the industry had recovered nearly 85% of comparable 2019 occupancy. 8
Real-time tracker
In May 2020, Harvard-based nonprofit Opportunity Insights, in partnership with several private-sector providers of high-frequency data, launched a real-time Economic Tracker as a free public service. Interactive charts show day-to-day changes in U.S. debit- and credit-card spending, small-business revenue, employment, online job postings, and time spent outside the home. In addition to nationwide statistics, disparities in progress can be broken down by income and industry, as well as by state or metro area.
Fed indexes
The Weekly Economic Index (WEI), which is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, signals the state of the U.S. economy based on 10 different indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production that are available daily or weekly. The WEI is scaled to the four-quarter GDP growth rate, which means the weekly result is the economic growth that could be expected if current activity continued for a year. For the week ending March 20, 2021, the WEI jumped to 4.14% from -0.33% the previous week. 9
In addition, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta keeps a running estimate of GDP changes — GDPNow — that is updated based on a model that incorporates incoming economic data. On March 26, 2021, the growth estimate for the first quarter of 2021 was 4.7%. 10
These estimates are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not come to pass. Neither is an official forecast of the Federal Reserve. When investing, it’s generally wise to maintain a long-term approach based on your personal goals, time frame, and risk tolerance, rather than react too quickly to shifting economic dynamics
1) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2021
2) U.S. Department of Labor, 2021
3) American Staffing Association, 2021
4) Investing.com, 2021
5) OpenTable, 2021
6) Apple Mobility Trends, 2021
7) Transportation Security Administration, 2021
8) STR, 2021
9-10) Federal Reserve, 2021
U.S. Credit-Card Debt Levels See Record Drop in 2020
Despite the financial challenges experienced by Americans as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, U.S. credit-card debt dropped to record levels in 2020, decreasing by almost $83 billion. 1) This unprecedented drop was likely the result of individuals receiving financial assistance through the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act and having access to more cash. Economic aid in the form of stimulus payments, suspended student loan payments, and broad state-sponsored unemployment benefits, allowed Americans to pay down their balances. 2) In fact, according to a U.S. Census Bureau survey, almost 60% of adults in households that experienced a loss in employment income during the pandemic used their second stimulus check to pay down debt. 3)
If you are still struggling to pay down your balances, here are some strategies to help eliminate your credit-card debt.
- Pay off cards with the highest interest rates first. If you have more than one card with an outstanding balance, one option is to pay the most to the card with the highest interest rate and continue making payments to your other cards until the card with the highest interest rate is paid off. You can then focus your repayment efforts on the card with the next-highest interest rate, and so on, until they’re all paid off.
- Apply for a balance transfer. Many credit-card companies offer highly competitive balance transfer offers (e.g., 0% interest for 12 months). Transferring your credit-card balance to a card with a lower interest rate may enable you to reduce interest charges and pay more against your existing balance. Keep in mind that most balance transfer offers charge a fee (usually a percentage of the balance transferred), so be sure to do the calculations to make sure it’s cost-effective before you apply.
- Pay more than the minimum. If you pay only the minimum payment due on a credit card, you’ll continue to carry the bulk of your balance forward without reducing your overall balance. Instead, try to make payments that exceed the minimum amount due. For more detailed information on the impact that making just the minimum payment will have on your overall balance, refer to your monthly billing statement.
- Look for other sources of available funds. If you always seem to find that you don’t have the extra cash available to pay down your balances, you may want to look for other sources of available funds. Are you expecting an employment bonus or other financial windfall in the near future? If so, consider using those funds to help eliminate or pay down your credit-card debt.
1) Credit Card Debt Study, WalletHub, March 2021
2) Credit Card Debt in 2020, Experian, November 2020
3) Household Pulse Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, March 2021
Due Date for Federal Income Tax Returns and Payments Postponed to May 17
Due to the unusual conditions related to the coronavirus pandemic, the due date for individuals to file 2020 federal income tax returns and make tax payments has been postponed by the IRS from Thursday, April 15, 2021, to Monday, May 17, 2021. No interest, penalties, or additions to tax will be incurred by taxpayers during this approximately one-month relief period for any return or payment postponed under this relief provision.
The relief applies automatically to all taxpayers and no additional forms need to be filed to qualify for the relief. The new deadline applies to federal income tax payments for taxable year 2020, including payments of tax on self-employment income. It does not apply to estimated tax payments for 2021 that are due on April 15, 2021. There is no limit on the amount of tax that can be deferred.
Note: Under this relief provision, no extension is provided for the payment or deposit of any other type of federal tax, or for the filing of any federal information return. The IRS urges taxpayers to check with their state tax agencies regarding state tax filing and payment deadlines.
Note: Earlier this year, the IRS announced that victims of the February winter storms in Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana have until Tuesday, June 15, 2021, to file various individual and business tax returns and make tax payments.
Need more time?
If you’re not able to file your federal income tax return by the May due date, you can file for an extension by the May due date using IRS Form 4868, Application for Automatic Extension of Time to File U.S. Individual Income Tax Return. Filing this extension gives you an additional five months (until October 15, 2021) to file your federal income tax return. You can also file for an automatic five-month extension electronically (details on how to do so can be found in the Form 4868 instructions). There may be penalties for failing to file or for filing late.
Filing for an extension using Form 4868 does not provide any additional time to pay your tax. When you file for an extension, you have to estimate the amount of tax you will owe and pay this amount by the May filing due date. If you don’t pay the amount you’ve estimated, you may owe interest and penalties. In fact, if the IRS believes that your estimate was not reasonable, it may void your extension.
Tax refunds
The IRS encourages taxpayers seeking a tax refund to file their tax return as soon as possible, and to file electronically with direct deposit. The IRS issues most tax refunds within 21 days of the IRS receiving a tax return. However, the IRS has experienced delays in processing paper tax returns due to limited staffing during the coronavirus pandemic.
IRA contributions
Contributions to an individual retirement account (IRA) for 2020 can be made up to the due date (without regard to extensions) for filing the 2020 federal income tax return. The postponement of the 2020 tax filing due date by the IRS also generally extends the time to make IRA contributions for 2020 to May 17, 2021.
American Rescue Plan Act Provides Relief to Individuals and Businesses
On Thursday, March 11, 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARPA 2021) was signed into law. This is a $1.9 trillion emergency relief package that includes payments to individuals and funding for federal programs, vaccines and testing, state and local governments, and schools. It is intended to assist individuals and businesses during the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and accompanying economic crisis. Major relief provisions are summarized here, including some tax provisions.
Recovery rebates (stimulus checks)
Many individuals will receive another direct payment from the federal government. Technically a 2021 refundable income tax credit, the rebate amount will be calculated based on 2019 tax returns filed (or on 2020 tax returns if filed and processed by the IRS at the time of determination) and sent automatically via check, direct deposit, or debit card to qualifying individuals. To qualify for a payment, individuals generally must have a Social Security number and must not qualify as the dependent of another individual.
The amount of the recovery rebate is $1,400 ($2,800 if married filing a joint return) plus $1,400 for each dependent. Recovery rebates start to phase out for those with an adjusted gross income (AGI) exceeding $75,000 ($150,000 if married filing a joint return, $112,500 for those filing as head of household). Recovery rebates are completely phased out for those with an AGI of $80,000 ($160,000 if married filing a joint return, $120,000 for those filing as head of household).
Unemployment provisions
The legislation extends unemployment benefit assistance:
- An additional $300 weekly benefit to those collecting unemployment benefits, through September 6, 2021.
- An additional 29-week extension of federally funded unemployment benefits for individuals who exhaust their state unemployment benefits.
- Targeted federal reimbursement of state unemployment compensation designed to eliminate state one-week delays in providing benefits (allowing individuals to receive a maximum 79 weeks of benefits)
- Unemployment benefits through September 6, 2021, for many who would not otherwise qualify, including independent contractors and part-time workers.
For 2020, the legislation also makes the first $10,200 (per spouse for joint returns) of unemployment benefits nontaxable if the taxpayer’s modified adjusted gross income is less than $150,000. If a 2020 tax return has already been filed, an amended return may be needed.
Business relief
- The employee retention tax credit has been extended through December 31, 2021. It is available to employers that were significantly impacted by the crisis and is applied to offset Social Security payroll taxes. As in the previous extension, the credit is increased to 70% of qualified wages, up to a certain maximum per quarter.
- The employer tax credits for providing emergency sick and family leave have been extended through September 30, 2021.
- Eligible small businesses can receive targeted economic injury disaster loan advances from the Small Business Administration. The advances are not included in taxable income. Furthermore, no deduction or basis increase is denied, and no tax attribute is reduced by reason of the exclusion from income.
- Eligible restaurants can receive restaurant revitalization grants from the Small Business Administration. The grants are not included in taxable income. Furthermore, no deduction or basis increase is denied, and no tax attribute is reduced by reason of the exclusion from income.
Housing relief
- The legislation allocates additional funds to state and local governments to provide emergency rental and utility assistance through December 31, 2021.
- The legislation allocates funds to help homeowners with mortgage payments and utility bills.
- The legislation also allocates funds to help the homeless.
Health insurance relief
- For those who lost a job and qualify for health insurance under the federal COBRA continuation coverage program, the federal government will generally pay the entire COBRA premium for health insurance from April 1, 2021, through September 30, 2021.
- For 2021, if a taxpayer receives unemployment compensation, the taxpayer is treated as an applicable taxpayer for purposes of the premium tax credit, and the household income of the taxpayer is favorably treated for purposes of determining the amount of the credit.
- Persons who bought their own health insurance through a government exchange may qualify for a lower cost through December 31, 2022.
Student loan tax relief
For student loans forgiven or cancelled between January 1, 2021, and December 31, 2025, discharged amounts are not included in taxable income.
Child tax credit
- For 2021, the credit amount increases from $2,000 to $3,000 per qualifying child ($3,600 for qualifying children under age 6), subject to phaseout based on modified adjusted gross income. The legislation also makes 17-year-olds eligible as qualifying children in 2021.
- For most individuals, the credit is fully refundable for 2021 if it exceeds tax liability.
- The Treasury Department is expected to send out periodic advance payments (to be worked out by the Treasury) for up to one-half of the credit during 2021.
Child and dependent care tax credit
- For 2021, the legislation increases the maximum credit up to $4,000 for one qualifying individual and up to $8,000 for two or more (based on an increased applicable percentage of 50% of costs paid and increased dollar limits).
- Most taxpayers will not have the applicable percentage reduced (can be reduced from 50% to 20% if AGI exceeds a substantially increased $125,000) in 2021. However, the applicable percentage can now also be reduced from 20% down to 0% if the taxpayer’s AGI exceeds $400,000 in 2021.
- For most individuals, the credit is fully refundable for 2021 if it exceeds tax liability.
Earned income tax credit
For 2021 only:
- The legislation generally increases the credit available for individuals with no qualifying children (bringing it closer to the amounts for individuals with one, two, or three or more children which were already much higher).
- For individuals with no qualifying children, the minimum age at which the credit can be claimed is generally lowered from 25 to 19 (24 for certain full-time students) and the maximum age limit of 64 is eliminated (there are no similar age limits for individuals with qualifying children).
- To determine the credit amount, taxpayers can elect to use their 2019 earned income if it is more than their 2021 earned income.
For 2021 and later years:
- Taxpayers otherwise eligible for the credit except that their children do not have Social Security numbers (and were previously prohibited from claiming any credit) can now claim the credit for individuals with no qualifying children.
- The credit is now available to certain separated spouses who do not file a joint tax return.
- The level of investment income at which a taxpayer is disqualified from claiming the credit is increased from $3,650 (as previously indexed for 2021) to $10,000 in 2021 (indexed for inflation in future years).
National Consumer Protection Week: Beware of Pandemic Scams
This past year, scam artists have taken advantage of people’s concerns over the coronavirus pandemic to defraud them of money. According to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), consumers reported losing more than $3.3 billion to fraud in 2020, up from $1.8 billion in 2019. (1)
This week is National Consumer Protection Week, the perfect time to take steps to protect yourself from the increase in fraud, identity theft and other scams. Here are some of the latest ones to watch out for.
Unemployment benefit scams
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, there has been a surge in identity theft related to unemployment insurance claims. In fact, over $5 billion in potentially fraudulent unemployment claims were paid between March and October of 2020. (2)
Typically, these types of scams involve a fraudster trying to use your personal information to claim unemployment benefits. If you receive an unexpected prepaid card for unemployment benefits, see an unexpected deposit from your state in your bank account, or receive a Form 1099-G for 2020 unemployment compensation that you did not apply for, report it to your state unemployment insurance office as soon as possible.
Economic impact payment scams
Scammers have come up with a number of schemes related to the economic impact payments sent to taxpayers by the federal government. It is important to note that at this time, all first and second economic impact payments have already been sent out. A third economic impact payment may be sent out to taxpayers in March.
The IRS is warning taxpayers to be aware of scammers who:
- Use words such as “stimulus check” or “stimulus payment” instead of the official term, “economic impact payment”
- Ask you to “sign up” for your economic impact payment check
- Contact you by phone, email, text or social media for verification of personal and/or banking information to receive or speed up your economic impact payment
In most cases, the IRS will deposit economic impact payments directly into accounts that taxpayers previously provided on their tax returns. If the IRS does not have a taxpayer’s direct-deposit information, a check or prepaid debit card will be mailed to the taxpayer’s address on file with the IRS. For more information visit irs.gov.
Fraudulent products and vaccine scams
This past year, the Federal Trade Commission has warned about scam artists attempting to sell fraudulent products that claim to treat, prevent or diagnose COVID-19.
With the arrival of new COVID-19 vaccines, the FTC is warning consumers to also be wary of possible vaccine scams. The FTC is urging consumers to contact their state or local health department in order to find out how, when and where to get a COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, the FTC warned consumers to avoid scammers who:
- Offer to put your name on a vaccine list or get early access to a vaccine for a fee
- Call, text or email you about the vaccine and ask for financial information
Protecting yourself from scams
Fortunately, there are some things you can do to protect yourself from scams, including those related to the coronavirus pandemic:
- Don’t click on suspicious or unfamiliar links in emails, text messages or instant messaging services — visit government websites directly for important information.
- Don’t answer a phone call if you don’t recognize the phone number — instead, let it go to voicemail and check later to verify the caller.
- Keep device and security software up to date, maintain strong passwords and use multi-factor authentication.
- Never share personal or financial information via email, text message or over the phone.
- If you see a scam, be sure to report it to the FTC at ftc.gov, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) at tigta.gov and your local police department.
(1)Federal Trade Commission, February 2021
(2)U.S. Department of Labor, February 2021
