New Spending Package Includes Sweeping Retirement Plan Changes
The $1.4 trillion spending package enacted on December 20, 2019, included the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, which had overwhelmingly passed the House of Representatives in the spring of 2019, but then subsequently stalled in the Senate. The SECURE Act represents the most sweeping set of changes to retirement legislation in more than a decade.
While many of the provisions offer enhanced opportunities for individuals and small business owners, there is one notable drawback for investors with significant assets in traditional IRAs and retirement plans. These individuals will likely want to revisit their estate-planning strategies to prevent their heirs from potentially facing unexpectedly high tax bills.
All provisions take effect on or after January 1, 2020, unless otherwise noted.
Elimination of the “stretch IRA”
Perhaps the change requiring the most urgent attention is the elimination of longstanding provisions allowing non-spouse beneficiaries who inherit traditional IRA and retirement plan assets to spread distributions — and therefore the tax obligations associated with them — over their lifetimes. This ability to spread out taxable distributions after the death of an IRA owner or retirement plan participant, over what was potentially such a long period of time, was often referred to as the “stretch IRA” rule. The new law, however, generally requires any beneficiary who is more than 10 years younger than the account owner to liquidate the account within 10 years of the account owner’s death unless the beneficiary is a spouse, a disabled or chronically ill individual, or a minor child. This shorter maximum distribution period could result in unanticipated tax bills for beneficiaries who stand to inherit high-value traditional IRAs. This is also true for IRA trust beneficiaries, which may affect estate plans that intended to use trusts to manage inherited IRA assets.
In addition to possibly reevaluating beneficiary choices, traditional IRA owners may want to revisit how IRA dollars fit into their overall estate planning strategy. For example, it may make sense to consider the possible implications of converting traditional IRA funds to Roth IRAs, which can be inherited income tax free. Although Roth IRA conversions are taxable events, investors who spread out a series of conversions over the next several years may benefit from the lower income tax rates that are set to expire in 2026.
Benefits to individuals
On the plus side, the SECURE Act includes several provisions designed to benefit American workers and retirees.
- People who choose to work beyond traditional retirement age will be able to contribute to traditional IRAs beyond age 70½. Previous laws prevented such contributions.
- Retirees will no longer have to take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and retirement plans by April 1 following the year in which they turn 70½. The new law generally requires RMDs to begin by April 1 following the year in which they turn age 72.
- Part-time workers age 21 and older who log at least 500 hours in three consecutive years generally must be allowed to participate in company retirement plans offering a qualified cash or deferred arrangement. The previous requirement was 1,000 hours and one year of service. (The new rule applies to plan years beginning on or after January 1, 2021.)
- Workers will begin to receive annual statements from their employers estimating how much their retirement plan assets are worth, expressed as monthly income received over a lifetime. This should help workers better gauge progress toward meeting their retirement-income goals.
- New laws make it easier for employers to offer lifetime income annuities within retirement plans. Such products can help workers plan for a predictable stream of income in retirement. In addition, lifetime income investments or annuities held within a plan that discontinues such investments can be directly transferred to another retirement plan, avoiding potential surrender charges and fees that may otherwise apply.
- Individuals can now take penalty-free early withdrawals of up to $5,000 from their qualified plans and IRAs due to the birth or adoption of a child. (Regular income taxes will still apply, so new parents may want to proceed with caution.)
- Taxpayers with high medical bills may be able to deduct unreimbursed expenses that exceed 5% (in 2019 and 2020) of their adjusted gross income. In addition, individuals may withdraw money from their qualified retirement plans and IRAs penalty-free to cover expenses that exceed this threshold (although regular income taxes will apply). The threshold returns to 10% in 2021.
- 529 account assets can now be used to pay for student loan repayments ($10,000 lifetime maximum) and costs associated with registered apprenticeships.
Benefits to employers
The SECURE Act also provides assistance to employers striving to provide quality retirement savings opportunities to their workers. Among the changes are the following:
- The tax credit that small businesses can take for starting a new retirement plan has increased. The new rule allows employers to take a credit equal to the greater of (1) $500 or (2) the lesser of (a) $250 times the number of non-highly compensated eligible employees or (b) $5,000. The credit applies for up to three years. The previous maximum credit amount allowed was 50% of startup costs up to a maximum of $1,000 (i.e., a maximum credit of $500).
- A new tax credit of up to $500 is available for employers that launch a SIMPLE IRA or 401(k) plan with automatic enrollment. The credit applies for three years.
- With regards to the new mandate to permit certain part-timers to participate in retirement plans, employers may exclude such employees for nondiscrimination testing purposes.
- Employers now have easier access to join multiple employer plans (MEPs) regardless of industry, geographic location, or affiliation. “Open MEPs,” as they have become known, offer economies of scale, allowing small employers access to the types of pricing models and other benefits typically reserved for large organizations. (Previously, groups of small businesses had to be affiliated somehow in order to join an MEP.) The legislation also provides that the failure of one employer in an MEP to meet plan requirements will not cause others to fail, and that plan assets in the failed plan will be transferred to another. (This rule is effective for plan years beginning on or after January 1, 2021.)
- Auto-enrollment safe harbor plans may automatically increase participant contributions until they reach 15% of salary. The previous ceiling was 10%.
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent individual professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources. This legislation maybe revised to correct errors and/or clarified.
Year-end planning equals fewer surprises.
Year-end pla
As this year is ending, now is the time to take a closer look at your current tax strategies to make sure they are still meeting your needs and take any last-minute steps that could save you money come tax time. Now is also a good time to start planning for next year.
With all that in mind, please contact me at your earliest convenience to discuss your tax situation so I can develop a customized plan. In the meantime, here’s a look at some of the issues we’re recommending clients consider as they begin their end-of-year review.
Key tax considerations you should be aware of
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was signed into law at the end of 2017, with taxpayers seeing the real affects when they filed their returns in 2019. This legislation has made a profound impact on many taxpayers and has created new planning opportunities. Here are a few items to note:
- Deductions — Due to the increase in the standard deduction, many individuals did not itemize their deductions last year. While this may seem like a simplification for some, there are still strategies to consider. For example, we can help you navigate whether it makes sense to “bunch” deductions, such as charitable contributions.
- Withholdings — You may have experienced a surprise when you filed your tax return. This was likely because your withholding adjustment may not have reflected your actual tax situation. There still maybe time to look at your projected tax. Doing this will help avoid unwanted penalties/interest as well as help you plan for cashflow needs. There is time to adjust your withholding before the end of the year. If you have not paid your 2019 required minimum distribution you could have tax withheld from the payment.
- Qualified business income deduction — If you own a business or a rental property, you likely reviewed this deduction (a potential 20% deduction on business income) last year. There are several reasons why year-end planning is particularly important for this deduction. The deduction can be limited based on taxable income, which means that planning for minimizing income can be important. Also, for rental property owners, there are requirements that may need to be satisfied before the end of the year for you to take this deduction.
- Divorce settlements — If you had a divorce or separation that recently was finalized, any alimony paid or received will not be deducted or included in income.
- Kiddie tax — Based on changes in the tax law, the tax on children’s investment income (known as “kiddie tax”) is now calculated at the trust and estate tax rates. There can be alternatives to filing a separate tax return based on the amount and type of income.
Fraudulent activity remains a significant threat.
I take security very seriously and think you should as well. Fraudsters continue to refine their techniques and tax identity theft remains a significant concern. Beware if you:
- Receive a notice or letter from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regarding a tax return, tax bill or income that doesn’t apply to you. If there is any question go to IRS.gov .
- Get an unsolicited email or another form of communication asking for your bank account number or other financial details or personal information
- Receive a robocall insisting you must call back and settle your tax bill
Make sure you’re taking steps to keep your personal financial information safe.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA) and your taxes
Recent tax law changes repealed the penalty that the ACA imposes on individuals who do not have health insurance. However, other aspects of the ACA still are in place.
Be sure your retirement planning is up to date.
I recommend you review your retirement situation at least annually. That includes making the most of tax-advantaged retirement saving options, such as traditional IRAs, Roth IRAs and company retirement plans.
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent individual professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources
College Cost Data for 2019-2020 School Year
Each year, the College Board releases its annual Trends in College Pricing report that highlights current college costs and trends. While costs can vary significantly depending on the region and college, the College Board publishes average cost figures, which are based on a survey of nearly 4,000 colleges across the country.
Following are cost highlights for the 2019-2020 academic year. 1) Note that “total cost of attendance” figures include direct billed costs for tuition, fees, room, and board, plus a sum for indirect costs that includes books, transportation, and personal expenses, which will vary by student.
Public college costs (in-state students)
- Tuition and fees increased 2.3% to $10,440
- Room and board increased 2.9% to $11,510
- Total cost of attendance: $26,590
Public college costs (out-of-state students)
- Tuition and fees increased 2.4% to $26,820
- Room and board increased 2.9% to $11,510 (same as in-state)
- Total cost of attendance: $42,970
Private college costs
- Tuition and fees increased 3.4% to $36,880
- Room and board increased 3.0% to $12,990
- Total cost of attendance: $53,980
Reminder on FAFSA timeline
Families were able to begin filing the 2020-2021 FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) on October 1, 2019. The earlier timeline was instituted a few years ago to better align the financial aid process with the college admissions process and to give parents information about their child’s aid eligibility earlier in the process.
The 2020-2021 FAFSA relies on income information from your 2018 federal income tax return and current asset information. Your income is the biggest factor in determining financial aid eligibility. A detailed analysis of the federal aid formula is beyond the scope of this article, but generally here’s how it works: 2)
- Parent income is counted up to 47% (income equals adjusted gross income, plus untaxed income/benefits minus certain deductions)
- Student income is counted at 50% over a certain amount ($6,840 for the 2020-2021 academic year)
- Parent assets are counted at 5.64% (home equity, retirement accounts, cash value life insurance, and annuities are excluded)
- Student assets are counted at 20%
The result is a figure known as your expected family contribution, or EFC. Your EFC remains constant, no matter which college your child attends. Your EFC is not the same as your child’s financial need. To calculate financial need, subtract your EFC from the cost at a specific college. Because costs vary at each college, your child’s financial need will vary depending on the cost of a particular college.
One thing to keep in mind: Just because your child has financial need doesn’t automatically mean that colleges will meet 100% of that need. In fact, it’s not uncommon for colleges to meet only a portion of it. In this case, you’ll have to make up the gap, in addition to paying your EFC.
To get an estimate ahead of time of what your out-of-pocket costs might be at various colleges, run the net price calculator on each college’s website. A net price calculator asks for income, asset, and general family information and provides an estimate of grant aid at that particular college. The cost of the school minus this grant aid equals your estimated net price, hence the name “net price calculator.”
Reduced asset protection allowance
Behind the scenes, a stealth change in the FAFSA has been quietly and negatively impacting families. The asset protection allowance, which lets parents shield a certain amount of their assets from consideration (in addition to the assets listed above that are already shielded), has been steadily declining for years, resulting in higher EFCs. Fifteen years ago, the asset protection allowance for a 48-year-old married parent with a child about to enter college was $40,500. For 2020-2021, that same allowance is $6,000, resulting in a $1,946 decrease in a student’s aid eligibility ($40,500 – $6,000 x 5.64%). 3)
Higher student debt
Student loan debt continues to grow and student debt is now the second-highest consumer debt category, ahead of both credit cards and auto loans and behind only mortgage debt. 4) About 65% of U.S. college seniors who graduated in 2018 had student debt, owing an average of $29,200. 5) And it’s not just students who are borrowing. Parents are borrowing, too. There are approximately 15 million student loan borrowers age 40 and older, and this demographic accounts for almost 40% of all student loan debt. 6)
1) College Board, 2019
2-3) U.S. Department of Education, The EFC Formula, 2020-2021, 2005-2006
4) Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, August 2018
5) Institute for College Access & Success, Student Debt and the Class of 2018, September 2019
6) Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Student Loan Data and Demographics, September 2018
IRA and Retirement Plan Limits for 2020
IRA contribution limits
The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA in 2020 is $6,000 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), unchanged from 2019. The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains at $1,000. You can contribute to both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA in 2020, but your total contributions can’t exceed these annual limits.
Traditional IRA income limits
If you are not covered by an employer retirement plan, your contributions to a traditional IRA are generally fully tax deductible. For those who are covered by an employer plan, the income limits for determining the deductibility of traditional IRA contributions in 2020 have increased. If your filing status is single or head of household, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution up to $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) in 2020 if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is $65,000 or less (up from $64,000 in 2019). If you’re married and filing a joint return, you can fully deduct up to $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) in 2020 if your MAGI is $104,000 or less (up from $103,000 in 2019).
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Single or head of household your IRA deduction is limited if your MAGI is between $65,000 and $75,000 and the deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is $75,000 or more.
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Married filing jointly or a qualifying widow/widower your IRA deduction is limited if your combined MAGI is between $104,000 and $124,000 and the deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is $124,000 or more.
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Married filing separately your IRA deduction is limited if your MAGI is between $0 and $10,000 and the deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is $10,000 or more.
If you’re not covered by an employer plan but your spouse is, and you file a joint return, your deduction is limited if your MAGI is $196,000 to $206,000 (up from $193,000 to $203,000 in 2019), and eliminated if your MAGI exceeds $206,000 (up from $203,000 in 2019).
Roth IRA income limits
The income limits for determining how much you can contribute to a Roth IRA have also increased for 2020. If your filing status is single or head of household, you can contribute the full $6,000 ($7,000 if you are age 50 or older) to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is $124,000 or less (up from $122,000 in 2019). And if you’re married and filing a joint return, you can make a full contribution if your MAGI is $196,000 or less (up from $193,000 in 2019). (Again, contributions can’t exceed 100% of your earn0 but under $139,000ed income.)
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Single or head of household your Roth IRA contribution is limited if your MAGI is more than $124,000 but under $139,000 and you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is $139,000 or more.
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Married filing jointly or a qualifying widow/widower your Roth IRA contribution is limited if your combined MAGI is more than $196,000 but under $206,000 and you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your combined MAGI is $206,000 or more.
If your 2020 federal income tax filing status is Married filing separately your Roth IRA contribution is limited if your MAGI is more than $0 but under $10,000 and you cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is $10,000 or more.
Employer retirement plans
Most of the significant employer retirement plan limits for 2020 have also increased. The maximum amount you can contribute (your “elective deferrals“) to a 401(k) plan is $19,500 in 2020 (up from $19,000 in 2019). This limit also applies to 403(b) and 457(b) plans, as well as the Federal Thrift Plan. If you’re age 50 or older, you can also make catch-up contributions of up to $6,500 to these plans in 2020 (up from $6,000 in 2019). (Special catch-up limits apply to certain participants in 403(b) and 457(b) plans.)
If you participate in more than one retirement plan, your total elective deferrals can’t exceed the annual limit ($19,500 in 2020 plus any applicable catch-up contributions). Deferrals to 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, and SIMPLE plans are included in this aggregate limit, but deferrals to Section 457(b) plans are not. For example, if you participate in both a 403(b) plan and a 457(b) plan, you can defer the full dollar limit to each plan — a total of $39,000 in 2020 (plus any catch-up contributions).
The amount you can contribute to a SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) is $13,500 in 2020 (up from $13,000 in 2019), and the catch-up limit for those age 50 or older remains at $3,000.
The annual dollar limit for 401(k), 403(b), government 457(b) or a Federal Thrift Plan is $19,500 and the catch-up limit is $6,500.
The annual dollar limit for SIMPLE plans is $13,500 and the catch-up limit is $3,000.
Note: Contributions can’t exceed 100% of your income.
The maximum amount that can be allocated to your account in a defined contribution plan (for example, a 401(k) plan or profit-sharing plan) in 2020 is $57,000 (up from $56,000 in 2019) plus age 50 catch-up contributions. (This includes both your contributions and your employer’s contributions. Special rules apply if your employer sponsors more than one retirement plan.)
Finally, the maximum amount of compensation that can be taken into account in determining benefits for most plans in 2020 is $285,000 (up from $280,000 in 2019), and the dollar threshold for determining highly compensated employees (when 2020 is the look-back year) is $130,000 (up from $125,000 when 2019 is the look-back year).
Manufacturing Slowdown: What Does It Mean for the Economy?
In September 2019, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which measures a wide variety of manufacturing data, fell to 47.8%, the lowest level since June 2009.1
A reading below 50% generally means that manufacturing activity is contracting. The August reading of 49.1% had signaled the beginning of a contraction, and the drop in September suggested that the contraction was not only continuing but accelerating. The index rose slightly to 48.3% in October, but this indicated the third consecutive month of contraction.2 Nearly two-thirds of economists in a Wall Street Journal poll conducted in early October said the manufacturing sector was already in recession, defined as two or more quarters of negative growth.3
Leading indicator
The PMI — which tracks changes in production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories — is considered a leading economic indicator that may predict the future direction of the broader economy. Manufacturing contractions have often preceded economic recessions, but the structure of the U.S. economy has changed in recent decades, with services carrying much greater weight than manufacturing. The last time the manufacturing sector contracted, during the “industrial recession” in 2015 and 2016, the services sector helped to maintain continued growth in the broader economy.4
That may occur this time as well, but there are mixed signals from the services sector. In September, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (NMI) dropped suddenly to its lowest point in three years: 52.6%. The index bounced back in October to 54.7%, marking the 117th consecutive month of service sector expansion. Even so, these recent readings were well below the 12-month high of 60.4% in November 2018.5
Global weakness and trade tensions
The slump in U.S. manufacturing is being driven by a variety of factors, including a weakening global economy, the strong dollar, and escalating tariffs on U.S. and imported goods.
In October 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded its forecast for 2019 global growth to 3.0%, the lowest level since 2008-09. The IMF pointed to trade tensions and a slowdown in global manufacturing as two of the primary reasons for the weakening outlook.6 Put simply, a weaker world economy shrinks the global market for U.S. manufacturers.
The strong dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas, reflects the strength of the U.S. financial system in relation to the rest of the world and is unlikely to change in the near future.7 Tariffs, however, are a more volatile and immediate issue.
Originally intended to protect U.S. manufacturers, tariffs have been effective for some industries. But the overall impact so far has been negative due to rising costs for raw materials and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. For example, tariffs on foreign steel, which were first levied in March 2018, enabled U.S. steel manufacturers to set higher prices. But higher prices increased costs for other U.S. manufacturers that use steel in their products.8 Retaliatory tariffs by Canada and Mexico contributed to a $650 million drop in U.S. steel exports in 2018 and a $1 billion increase in the steel trade deficit.9 (In May 2019, the United States removed steel tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which dropped retaliatory tariffs in return.)10
U.S. manufacturers in every industry may pay higher prices for imported materials used to produce their products. An average of 22% of “intermediate inputs” (raw materials, semi-finished products, etc., used in the manufacturing process) come from abroad.11 Tariffs paid by U.S. manufacturers on these inputs must be absorbed — cutting into profits — and/or passed on to the consumer, which may reduce consumer demand.
The uncertainty factor
Along with specific effects of the tariffs, manufacturers and other global businesses have been hamstrung by trade policy uncertainty, which makes it difficult to adapt to changing conditions and commit to investment. A recent Federal Reserve study estimated that trade policy uncertainty will lead to a cumulative 1% reduction in global economic output through 2020.12
On October 11, 2019, President Trump announced that he would delay further tariff hikes on China — including an increased tariff on intermediate goods scheduled for October 15 — while the two sides attempt to negotiate a limited deal. Although a deal would be welcomed by most interested parties, past potential deals have collapsed, and it’s uncertain how any agreement might affect the $400 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods already in place, or the tariffs on goods from other countries.13
Will the slowdown spread?
Manufacturing accounts for only 11% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.5% of non-farm employment, a big change from 50 years ago when it accounted for about 25% of both categories.14-15 However, the manufacturing sector’s economic influence extends beyond the production of goods to the transportation, warehousing, and retail networks that move products from the factory to U.S. consumers. The final output of U.S.-made goods accounts for about 30% of GDP.16
Even so, a continued slowdown in manufacturing is unlikely to throw the U.S. economy into recession as long as unemployment remains low and consumer spending remains high. The key to both of these may depend on the continued strength of the services sector, which employs the vast majority of U.S. workers. It remains to be seen whether the service economy will stay strong in the face of the global headwinds that are holding back manufacturing.
1-2, 5) Institute for Supply Management, 2019
3) The Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2019
4) The New York Times, July 28, 2019
6) International Monetary Fund, 2019
7) National Review, August 22, 2019
8) Bloomberg, March 24, 2019
9) The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2019
10) Bloomberg, May 17, 2019
11) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2018
12) Federal Reserve, 2019
13) USA Today, October 11, 2019
14) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2019
15-16) The Wall Street Journal, October 1, 2019
November 1 Begins Open Enrollment for Health Insurance Marketplaces
Beginning on November 1, 2019, individuals (including families) may apply for new health insurance, switch to a different health-care plan, or re-enroll in their current plan through a Health Insurance Marketplace under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The open enrollment period for 2020 health coverage ends on December 15, 2019.
Individuals can use Health Insurance Marketplaces to compare health plans for benefits and prices and to select a plan that fits their needs. December 15 is the deadline to enroll in or change plans for new coverage to start January 1, 2020. For those who fail to meet the December 15 deadline, the only way to enroll in a Marketplace health plan is during a special enrollment period. To qualify for special enrollment, an individual must have a qualifying life event such as a change in family status (for example, marriage, divorce, birth, or adoption of a child), change in residence, or loss of other health coverage (e.g., loss of employer-based coverage, loss of eligibility for Medicare or Medicaid). Also, only plans sold through a Health Insurance Marketplace qualify for cost assistance.
Additional information about Obamacare
While the ACA (commonly referred to as Obamacare) has not been repealed or replaced, there have been changes to the law. The biggest change is the repeal of the tax penalty for failure to have qualifying health insurance. Though the individual mandate requiring that most people have minimum essential health insurance coverage still exists (unless an exception applies), the tax penalty for failure to have insurance has been reduced to $0, effectively repealing that penalty.
In addition, states have additional flexibility in how they select their essential health benefits. In effect, states may elect to sell short-term health insurance policies with coverage terms of up to one year. These plans may offer fewer benefits compared with the 10 Essential Health Benefits covered under the ACA. Also, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, and Washington, DC have extended open enrollment dates beyond December 15. Check with the state’s department of insurance for specific open enrollment dates.
The federal government no longer runs the marketplace for the Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP). As an alternative, small business employers may be able to contact insurance companies directly or work with a broker who is certified to sell SHOP policies.
The fate of Obamacare
Currently, the fate of the ACA is somewhat uncertain. At the end of 2018, a Texas federal judge ruled the Affordable Care Act unconstitutional. However, the judge ordered a stay pending appeals, so the ACA remains in place for the time being.
Upside Down: What Does the Yield Curve Suggest About Growth?
On August 14, 2019, the Dow Jones Industrial Avenue plunged 800 points, losing 3% of its value in its biggest drop of the year. The Nasdaq Composite also lost 3%, while the S&P 500 lost 2.9%.1
The slide started with bad economic news from Germany and China, which triggered a flight to the relative safety of U.S. Treasury securities. High demand briefly pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note below the two-year note for the first time since 2007.2 This is referred to as a yield curve inversion, which has been a reliable predictor of past recessions. The short-lived inversion spooked the stock market, which recovered only to see the curve begin a series of inversions a week later.3
From short to long
Yield relates to the return on capital invested in a bond. When prices rise due to increased demand, yields fall and vice versa. The yield curve is a graph with the daily yields of U.S. Treasury securities plotted by maturity. The slope of the curve represents the difference between yields on short-dated bonds and long-dated bonds. Normally, it curves upward as investors demand higher yields to compensate for the risk of lending money over a longer period. This suggests that investors expect stronger growth in the future, with the prospect of rising inflation and higher interest rates.
The curve flattens when the rates converge because investors are willing to accept lower rates to keep their money invested in Treasuries for longer terms. A flat yield curve suggests that inflation and interest rates are expected to stay low for an extended period of time, signaling economic weakness.
Parts of the curve started inverting in late 2018, so the recent inversions were not completely unexpected. However, investors tend to focus on the spread between the broadly traded two-year and 10-year notes.4
Inversion as an indicator
An inversion of the two-year and 10-year notes has occurred before each recession over the past 50 years, with only one “false positive” in that time. It does not indicate timing or severity but has reliably predicted a recession within the next one to two years. A recent Federal Reserve study suggested that an inversion of the three-month and 10-year Treasuries — which occurred in March and May 2019 — is an even more reliable indicator, predicting a recession in about 12 months.5
Is it different this time?
Some analysts believe that the yield curve may no longer be a reliable indicator due to the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented balance sheet of Treasury securities — originally built to increase the money supply as an antidote to the Great Recession. Although the Fed has trimmed the balance sheet, it continues to buy bonds in large quantities to replace maturing securities. This reduces the supply of Treasuries and increases pressure on yields when demand rises, as it has in recent months.6
At the same time, the Fed has consistently raised its benchmark federal funds rate over the last three years in response to a stronger U.S. economy, while other central banks have kept their policy rates near or below zero in an effort to stimulate their sluggish economies. This has raised yields on short-term Treasuries, which are more directly affected by the funds rate, while increasing global demand for longer-term Treasuries. Even at lower rates, U.S. Treasuries offer relatively safe yields that cannot be obtained elsewhere.7
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25% in late July, the first drop in more than a decade. While this slightly reduced short-term Treasury yields, it contributed to the demand for long-term bonds as investors anticipated declining interest rates. When interest rates fall, prices on existing bonds rise and yields decline. So the potential for further action by the Fed led investors to lock in long-term yields at current prices.8
Economic headwinds
Even if these technical factors are distorting the yield curve, the high demand for longer-term Treasuries represents a flight to safety — a shift of investment dollars into low-risk government securities — and a pessimistic economic outlook. One day after the initial two-year/10-year inversion, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell below 2% for the first time. This suggests that investors see decades of low inflation and tepid growth.9
The flight to safety is being driven by many factors, including the U.S.-China trade war and a global economic slowdown. Five of the world’s largest economies — Germany, Britain, Italy, Brazil, and Mexico — are at risk of a recession and others are struggling.10
Although the United States remains strong by comparison, there are concerns about weak business investment and a manufacturing slowdown, both weighed down by the uncertainty of the trade war and costs of the tariffs.11 Inflation has been persistently low since the last recession, generally staying below the 2% rate that the Fed considers optimal for economic growth. On the positive side, unemployment remains low and consumer spending continues to drive the economy, but it remains to be seen how long consumers can carry the economic weight.12
Market bounceback
Regardless of further movement of the yield curve, there are likely to be market ups and downs for many other reasons in the coming months. Historically, the stock market has rallied in the period between an inversion and the beginning of a recession, so investors who overreacted lost out on potential gains.13 Of course, past performance does not guarantee future results. While economic indicators can be helpful, it’s important to make investment decisions based on your own risk tolerance, financial goals, and time horizon.
U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific security. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index.
1-2, 13) The Wall Street Journal, August 14, 2019
3) CNBC.com, August 23, 2019
4-5) Reuters, August 13, 2019
6) Forbes.com, August 16, 2019
7-9) The Wall Street Journal, August 16, 2019
10, 12) CNN, August 14 and 18, 2019
11) Reuters, July 1, 2019
2018 Tax Filing Data Shows Need to Review Withholding
The IRS continues to encourage taxpayers to review the amount of tax they have withheld to avoid an unexpected tax surprise when they file their 2019 tax returns next year. Preliminary 2018 tax filing data seems to show the need for taxpayers to review their withholding in order to make sure the appropriate amount of tax is being withheld from their paychecks to reflect recent tax law changes.
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act made significant changes to the tax code, and 2018 was the first time that taxpayers filed with the new rules. Among other changes, the legislation modified individual income tax rates and brackets, eliminated the personal and dependency exemptions, raised the standard deduction amounts, limited certain itemized deductions (including the deduction for state and local taxes), increased the child tax credit and its phaseout thresholds, added a credit for other dependents, and increased the alternative minimum tax exemption amounts and the exemption phaseout thresholds.
2018 tax filing statistics
Preliminary data for the 2018 tax year shows that more than 106 million federal income tax individual returns resulted in refunds, with an average refund of $2,879. Over 24 million individual returns showed tax due at the time of filing, averaging $5,160.1 Because of the difficulty many taxpayers seemed to have with their 2018 tax year withholding (some may not have realized changes were needed), the IRS waived certain penalties for many 2018 tax returns. It is important that you get withholding right for 2019 while there still may be time for any adjustments to take effect.
Getting it right
If you have too much tax withheld, you will receive a refund when you file your tax return, but it might make more sense to reduce your withholding and receive more in your paycheck. If you have too little tax withheld, you will owe tax when you file your tax return, and you might owe a penalty. You can generally change the amount of federal tax you have withheld from your paycheck by giving a new Form W-4 to your employer. You can use a number of worksheets for the Form W-4 or the IRS Withholding Calculator (available at irs.gov) to help you plan your tax withholding strategy.
If changes reduce the number of allowances you are permitted to claim or your marital status changes from married to single, you must give your employer a new Form W-4 within 10 days. You can generally submit a new Form W-4 whenever you wish to change your withholding allowances for any other reason.
In general, you can claim various withholding allowances on the Form W-4 based on your tax filing status and the tax credits, itemized deductions (or any additional standard deduction for age or blindness), and adjustments to income that you expect to claim. You might increase the tax withheld or claim fewer allowances if you have a large amount of nonwage income. (If you have a significant amount of nonwage income, you might also consider making estimated tax payments using IRS Form 1040-ES.) The amount withheld can also be adjusted to reflect that you have more than one job at a time and whether both you and your spouse work. You might reduce the amount of tax withheld by increasing the amount of allowances you claim (to the extent permissible) on Form W-4.
You can claim exemption from withholding for the current year if: (1) for the prior year, you were entitled to a refund of all federal income tax withheld because you had no tax liability; and (2) for the current year, you expect a refund of all federal income tax withheld because you expect to have no tax liability.
If you need help, talk to a tax professional about your individual situation.
1Internal Revenue Service, 2019
Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD)
Changes in tax laws can require updating your planning.
The 2017 tax act has caused many to rethink their charitable giving. Charitable contributions for those over the age of 70.5 may benefit them by making their charitable contributions directly from their Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA). These QCDs are treated as part of the Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) for the year they are distributed, but are not taxed.
You must be at least 70.5 when you make the contribution.
The contribution must be made from a traditional IRA. Payment from other retirement accounts do not qualify.
The payments must be to a public charity.
The maximum annual amount cannot exceed $100,000. There is no limit on the number of distributions or charities you make contributions to.
The distribution must be made directly from your IRA account to the charitable organization.
You may not receive benefits in exchange for the contribution. Examples include tickets to paid events and preferential seating.
The distribution must be part of your RMD. Amounts contributed after you have withdrawn your RMD do not qualify as QCD. If you have already taken your annual RMD for the year, you cannot make a QCD for the year. Plan the timing of your QCD before you have taken your RMDs for the year. Distribute your QCDs early in the year before you have withdrawn all your RMDs for the year.
Include a cover letter specifying the payment is a QCD and request an acknowledgement.
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent individual professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources.
U.S.-China Trade War: Who Pays the Price?
On May 13, 2019, escalating trade tensions between the United States and China sparked a worldwide stock sell-off that wiped out more than $1 trillion in global equity values.1 The markets recovered over the next three days, but tensions between the economic giants continued to drive volatility with no resolution in sight.2 Investors sometimes overreact to short-term events, but the conflict with China has been simmering for decades, and an extended trade war could have long-term economic consequences.
The issues
China was the largest U.S. trading partner in 2018, with $737 billion in goods and services exchanged between the two nations, accounting for 13% of all U.S. trade. The fundamental issue is the imbalance in this relationship; the goods and services trade deficit of $379 billion represented more than 60% of the total U.S. trade deficit. The United States maintains a surplus in services (primarily travel spending by Chinese citizens and software), so the critical concern is the deficit in goods, which totaled $419 billion in 2018 — an increase of 11.6% over the previous year.3-4
For years, U.S. officials have accused China of using unfair trade practices to maintain this imbalance, even as China has grown into a global economic powerhouse. Among the most contentious issues are currency manipulation, excessive restrictions on U.S. companies, forced technology transfers, and theft of intellectual property.
The tariffs
In early 2018, the Trump administration began imposing global tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, solar panels, and washing machines. While these tariffs were intended to stimulate U.S. manufacturing by protecting domestic production, the primary focus soon turned to China. Between July and September 2018, the United States imposed a 25% levy on $50 billion of Chinese goods and a 10% tax on an additional $200 billion of goods, which was set to rise to 25% on January 1, 2019, unless China took steps to level the playing field. China retaliated by placing tariffs of 5% to 25% on $110 billion of U.S. goods, covering almost all U.S. exports to China.5-6
In December 2018, both nations agreed to a truce, and President Trump extended the deadline to raise tariffs. When negotiations broke down in early May 2019, the U.S. raised the 10% tariffs to 25% effective May 10, and the president threatened to levy tariffs on the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods. China retaliated by raising tariffs on more than half of U.S. goods already being taxed.7
Carrying the costs
U.S. importers of Chinese goods must pay the actual tax, but the question is who absorbs the additional costs. An academic study of the 2018 tariffs found that Chinese exporters generally did not lower their prices, so part of the increased cost was absorbed by the importers, cutting into their profit margins, and the rest was passed on to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices. The net cost to the U.S. economy was estimated to be $1.4 billion per month.8
A separate study found that prices for nine categories of goods most affected by the tariffs increased by an average of 3% from early 2018 to early 2019, while the prices of other goods (excluding volatile food and energy) declined by 2%. This study also found that some U.S. manufacturers used the tariffs as an opportunity to raise prices, which is the fundamental purpose of protective tariffs — to allow domestic producers to set prices without being undercut by imports.9
The new 25% tariffs do not apply to Chinese goods that were already in transit as of May 10, so the effects may not reach U.S. consumers until later this summer. Based on the 2018 tariffs — only 10% on most imported goods — the increase to 25% will likely raise prices significantly on a wide range of consumer goods from laptops and mobile phones to clothing, furniture, sporting goods, luggage, and fish. Higher tariffs on supplies such as circuit boards, computer chips, and auto parts will likely be passed on to consumers as well.10 A Federal Reserve study estimated that the tariffs will cost the average household $831 per year.11
Shifting supply chains
Many U.S. manufacturers and importers are looking for suppliers in other countries and/or moving production out of China. Over the long term, this should reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese products, but the “Made in China” label is so pervasive in the U.S. market that it will be a slow process. Consumers may not notice the difference in products made in Cambodia or Mexico rather than China, but the long-term effect on consumer prices remains to be seen.12
The Chinese market is far less dependent on U.S. goods, which gives China less of an edge in levying tariffs but also causes less disruption for Chinese consumers. Agricultural products are a major U.S. export to China, and the Chinese have already shifted to other suppliers, drying up an important market for American farmers. The Trump administration has authorized subsidies to affected farmers, but uncertainty about potential markets has disrupted farming operations.13
While U.S. consumers and businesses may bear the brunt of the tariffs in the short term, the United States is better positioned to outlast China in an extended trade war. Despite headwinds from trade concerns, the U.S. economy remains strong. One estimate suggests that the 25% tariffs may reduce gross domestic product growth by 0.3% — enough to slow the current pace but not enough to shift the economy into reverse.14
Market volatility is likely to continue as long as investors react to moves on either side of the conflict. However, many other factors also influence the markets, and it would be wise to focus on your long-term investment goals without overreacting to short-term market swings.
All investments are subject to market volatility and loss of principal. Investments, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing internationally carries additional risks such as differences in financial reporting, currency exchange risk, and economic and political risk unique to the specific country. This may result in greater share price volatility.
1) Bloomberg, May 13, 2019
2) Yahoo! Finance, May 22, 2019
3) Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, 2019
4) U.S. Census Bureau, 2019
5) Reuters, May 8, 2019
6) BBC News, May 14, 2019
7) CNN Business, May 13, 2019
8-9) The Wall Street Journal, May 15, 2019
10, 13-14) The Wall Street Journal, May 10, 2019
11) Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 23, 2019
12) The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2019
