Here are some things to consider as you weigh potential tax moves between now and the end of the year.
1. Defer income to next year
Consider opportunities to defer income to 2025, particularly if you think you may be in a lower tax bracket then. For example, you may be able to defer a year-end bonus or delay the collection of business debts, rents, and payments for services. Doing so may enable you to postpone payment of tax on the income until next year.
2. Accelerate deductions
You might also look for opportunities to accelerate deductions into the current tax year. If you itemize deductions, making payments for deductible expenses such as qualifying interest, state taxes, and medical expenses before the end of the year (instead of paying them in early 2025) could be effective on your 2024 return.
3. Make deductible charitable contributions
If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct charitable contributions, but the deduction is limited to 50% (currently increased to 60% for cash contributions to public charities), 30%, or 20% of your adjusted gross income (AGI), depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. (Excess amounts can be carried over for up to five years.)
4. Bump up withholding to cover a tax shortfall
If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for the remainder of the year to cover the shortfall. Time may be limited for employees to request a Form W-4 change and for their employers to implement it in time for 2024. The biggest advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered as having been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This strategy can be used to make up for low or missing quarterly estimated tax payments.
5. Save more for retirement
Deductible contributions to a traditional IRA and pretax contributions to an employer-sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k) can reduce your 2024 taxable income. If you haven’t already contributed up to the maximum amount allowed, consider doing so. For 2024, you can contribute up to $23,000 to a 401(k) plan ($30,500 if you’re age 50 or older) and up to $7,000 to traditional and Roth IRAs combined ($8,000 if you’re age 50 or older).* The window to make 2024 contributions to an employer plan generally closes at the end of the year, while you have until April 15, 2025, to make 2024 IRA contributions.
*Roth contributions are not deductible, but Roth qualified distributions are not taxable.
6. Take required minimum distributions
If you are age 73 or older, you generally must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans (special rules may apply if you’re still working and participating in your employer’s retirement plan). You must make the withdrawals by the date required — the end of the year for most individuals. The penalty for failing to do so is substantial: 25% of any amount that you failed to distribute as required (10% if corrected in a timely manner).
7. Weigh year-end investment moves
You shouldn’t let tax considerations drive your investment decisions. However, it’s worth considering the tax implications of any year-end investment moves that you make. For example, if you have realized net capital gains from selling securities at a profit, you might avoid being taxed on some or all those gains by selling losing positions. Any losses over and above the amount of your gains can be used to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 if your filing status is married filing separately) or carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years.
- Qualified Charitable contributions
A qualified charitable distribution (QCD) is a tax-free transfer from an IRA directly to a qualified charity. You must be at least 70.5 years old. Distributions from SEP or SIMPLE IRA do not qualify. The maximum that qualifies in 2024 is $105,000. An acknowledgement for the QCD must be received from the charity.
The Fed Finally Cut Interest Rates. What Could It Mean for Your Finances?
On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the benchmark federal funds rate one-half percentage point to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%. It was the first rate cut since the Fed raised the funds rate aggressively from March 2022 to July 2023 to help control inflation.1
The long-awaited policy shift suggests that a soft landing — the rare feat of bringing down inflation without causing a recession — is in sight. It also marks a critical juncture for the economy, with significant implications for consumers, businesses, and investors.
Why now?
The Federal Reserve operates under a dual mandate to foster maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American public. For a couple of years rising prices have been considered the more serious threat, but the inflation rate has moved much closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target.
Officials now see these two risks as “roughly in balance.” In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state, inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2%, as of August.”2
In recent months, job gains have slowed considerably, and unemployment climbed from 3.8% in March to 4.2% in August. Powell maintained that employment data remains at solid levels, but recent changes suggest the downside risks have increased.3–4
Relief for borrowers
Lowering the federal funds rate helps to reduce borrowing costs across the board, creating breathing room in the budgets of many households and businesses.
The prime rate, which commercial banks charge their best customers, typically moves with the federal funds rate. Though actual rates can vary widely, small-business loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loans, credit cards, and other forms of consumer credit are often linked to the prime rate, so the rates on these types of loans should adjust lower relatively soon after a Fed rate cut.
Borrowers with home equity lines of credit, adjustable-rate mortgages, credit card balances, or other outstanding loans with variable interest rates should see their monthly payments fall as well, in many cases within a couple of billing cycles.
Mortgage rates are influenced by a mix of complex factors that includes Fed policies, longer-term inflation expectations, and government bond market dynamics. The rates for 30-year fixed mortgages, which tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, fell steeply in August after government reports confirmed that inflation and the job market were cooling.5
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.09% on September 19, the lowest in 19 months. This is down from a recent peak of 7.22% in early May. Aspiring home buyers have gained significant purchasing power since last spring and mortgage rates may continue to fall gradually, but it’s also possible that much of the anticipated decline in interest rates has already been priced in.6
Too much cash on hand?
Savers have enjoyed being rewarded for holding cash in high-yield savings accounts and short-term certificates of deposits (CDs). Although it may not happen overnight, they should be prepared for the yields on these accounts to follow the Fed funds rate downward. Some bank CDs had a feature allowing the bank to “call” them before they mature.
Investors who have more cash savings than they expect to need in the next couple of years might consider locking into today’s relatively high yields by shifting money into CDs or bonds with fixed interest rates, without a call feature, and longer terms. For example, someone could purchase bonds that mature when the money is likely to be needed for retirement expenses or to pay for a child’s college education.
Moving more money into stocks, which have historically generated higher average returns over time, is a riskier option that may be appropriate for investors who intend to hang on to them for the long haul, but only if they can endure frequent price swings.
Rate cuts in a strong economy
Past rate-cutting cycles have aimed to boost growth when the economy was in trouble, which doesn’t appear to be the case this time around. Powell stated clearly, “The U.S. economy is in a good place. And our decision today is designed to keep it there.”7
In the second quarter of 2024, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a healthy 3.0% annual rate, and recent forecasts based on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicate that the economy grew at a similar pace in the third quarter.8–9
The September rate cut — which officials hope will keep job market conditions from worsening — is presumably a starting point. The Fed plans to keep cutting interest rates until they reach a neutral stance that should no longer impact the economy for better or worse. According to current FOMC projections, the fed funds rate could drop an additional 0.50% by the end of 2024, and another 1.0% over 2025.10
It can take time for borrowing rates to respond to changes in the fed funds rate and noticeably impact the decisions of consumers and businesses. This “lag” in the effects of monetary policy is one reason that some people fear the economy is not out of the woods.
Whatever happens next, the Committee intends to make policy decisions “meeting by meeting based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and balance of risks.”11
The FDIC insures CDs and bank savings accounts, which generally provide a fixed rate of return, up to $250,000 per depositor, per insured institution. The return and principal value of an investment in bonds or stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions and, when sold, these securities may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments seeking to achieve higher yields also involve a higher degree of risk. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass.
1, 9–10) The Federal Reserve, 2024
2, 4, 7, 11) The Wall Street Journal, September 18, 2024
3) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
5) The New York Times, August 8, 2024
6) Freddie Mac, 2024
8) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2024
After a Massive Breach, Is Your Data in Danger?
National Public Data, a consumer data broker, confirmed last week that a hacker had targeted the company in December 2023, “with potential leaks of certain data in April 2024 and summer 2024.”1) Other reports indicate that this leaked data had been found on the dark web and could include the names, addresses, phone numbers, and Social Security numbers of millions of Americans. 2) A data breach of this magnitude is especially worrisome, and is the latest in a string of major data breaches this year. 3) Following are some steps to help protect yourself against the growing threat of identity theft.
Place fraud alerts and credit freezes
One way to reduce your risk after a data breach is to place a fraud alert or a credit freeze on your credit report. Both are free tools that can help you prevent fraud, but they work somewhat differently.
A fraud alert is a notice placed on your credit report that warns potential creditors that your identity has been compromised. It allows them to check your credit but requires them to take extra steps to verify your identity before issuing new credit in your name. You can place a fraud alert by contacting one of the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion), and that agency will notify the others. An initial alert will last for one year, but can be extended to seven years if you have become an actual, rather than potential, victim of fraud.
A credit freeze (sometimes called a security freeze) may also help protect you if you suspect your personal information was stolen, but it’s more stringent. Once you have a credit freeze in place, potential creditors won’t be able to access your credit report or credit score (there are some exemptions). This helps prevent identity thieves from opening fraudulent accounts in your name. To request a credit freeze, you will need to contact each of the three major credit reporting agencies. The credit freeze will stay in place until you decide to lift it, which you will need to do at least temporarily, before applying for credit.
A fraud alert or credit freeze can be set up online, by phone, or by mail, following each credit bureau’s instructions. This may also be a good time to request a free credit report so that you can check recent credit activity. Here are the website addresses and phone numbers for each of the three major credit bureaus.
- Equifax, at Equifax.com 888-298-0045
- Experian at Experian.com 888-397-3742
- TransUnion at Transunion.com 800-916-8800
Continue to monitor your personal and financial information
- Consider subscribing to a credit monitoring service if you need extended support. These services come at a cost, but may bundle together credit report monitoring, credit report locks, scans of the dark web, help with recovering from identity theft, and identity theft insurance.
- Periodically review your credit reports to spot suspicious activity. You can receive free weekly online reports from all three credit bureaus at the official site annualcreditreport,com.
- Sign up for alerts for your bank, financial, and credit card accounts that will notify you when a transaction has occurred, or someone has signed into your account. Check your accounts frequently and review your statements.
- Pick strong passwords that are different for each account, and change them periodically. For an extra layer of protection, use a password manager that generates strong, unique passwords that you control through a single master password.
- Enable multifactor authentication when offered. For example, in addition to providing a password, you may be required to enter a code sent to your phone or email, answer a security question, use a physical security key, or sign in using a facial or fingerprint scan.
- Keep your device and security software up to date. Operating system and software updates may include security fixes. An easy way to do this is to turn on automatic updates.
- Watch out for phishing attempts from scammers looking to obtain passwords or financial information. Be cautious if you receive a link or attachment in your email or via social media. Don’t click on it until you can verify that it’s legitimate. Let unsolicited phone calls go to voicemail, and double-check phone numbers, even if they appear familiar or seem to come from a company that you normally do business with.
1) National Public Data, August, 2024
2) KrebsonSecurity.com, August 15, 2024
3) Identity Theft Resource Center, 2024
Required Distributions: Changes You Need to Know
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement Act of 2019 (SECURE Act) changed the rules for taking distributions from retirement accounts inherited after 2019. The so-called 10-year rule generally requires inherited accounts to be emptied within 10 years of the original owner’s death, with some exceptions. Where an exception applies, the entire account must generally be emptied within 10 years of the beneficiary’s death or within 10 years after a minor child beneficiary reaches age 21. This reduces the ability of most beneficiaries to spread out, or “stretch,” distributions from an inherited defined contribution plan or an IRA.
In 2022, the IRS issued proposed regulations that interpreted the revised required minimum distribution (RMD) rules. Final regulations have now been issued and are generally applicable starting in 2025. They basically adopt the proposed regulations, while reflecting some changes made by the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022 and including certain changes in response to comments received on the proposed regulations. Under these regulations, some beneficiaries could be subject to annual required distributions as well as a full distribution at the end of a 10-year period. Account owners and their beneficiaries may want to familiarize themselves with these changes and how they might be affected by them.
RMD basics
If you own an individual retirement account (IRA) or participate in a retirement plan like a 401(k), you generally must start taking RMDs for the year you reach your RMD age. RMD age is 70½ (if born before July 1, 1949), 72 (if born July 1, 1949, through 1950), 73 (if born in 1951 to 1959), or 75 (if born in 1960 or later). If you are still working for the employer that maintains the retirement plan, you may be able to wait until the year you retire to start RMDs from that account. Failing to take an RMD can be costly: a 25% penalty tax (50% prior to 2023) generally applies to the extent an RMD is not made.
The required beginning date (RBD) for the first year you are required to take a lifetime distribution is no later than April 1 of next year. After your first distribution, annual distributions must be taken by the end of each year. (Note that if you wait until April 1 to take your first-year distribution, you will have to take two distributions for that year: one by April 1 and the other by December 31.)
Lifetime distributions are not required from Roth accounts and, as a result, Roth account owners are always treated as dying before their RBD. Prior to 2024, these two special rules for Roth accounts applied to Roth IRAs, but not to Roth employer retirement plans.
When you die, the RMD rules also govern how quickly your retirement plan or IRA will need to be distributed to your beneficiaries. The rules are largely based on two factors: (1) the individuals you select as beneficiaries of your retirement plan, and (2) whether you pass away before or on or after your RBD.
Who is subject to the 10-year rule?
The SECURE Act still allows certain beneficiaries to “stretch” distributions, at least to some extent. These eligible designated beneficiaries (EDBs) include your surviving spouse, your minor children, any individual not more than 10 years younger than you, and certain disabled or chronically ill individuals. Generally, EDBs can take annual required distributions based on remaining life expectancy. However, once an EDB dies, or once a minor child EDB reaches age 21, any remaining funds must be distributed within 10 years.
Significantly, though, the SECURE Act requires that if your designated beneficiary is not an EDB, the entire account must be fully distributed within 10 years after your death.
What if your designated beneficiary is not an EDB?
If you die before your RBD, no distributions are required during the first nine years after your death, but the entire account must be distributed in the 10th year.
If you die on or after your RBD, annual distributions based on remaining life expectancy are required in the first nine years after the year of your death, then the remainder of the account must be distributed in the 10th year. Annual distributions after your death will be based on the greater of (a) what would have been your remaining life expectancy or (b) the beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy.
What if your beneficiary is a nonspouse EDB?
After your death, annual distributions will be required based on remaining life expectancy. If you die before your RBD, required annual distributions will be based on the EDB’s remaining life expectancy. If you die on or after your RBD, annual distributions after your death will be based on the greater of (a) what would have been your remaining life expectancy or (b) the beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy.
After your beneficiary dies or your beneficiary who is your minor child turns age 21, annual distributions based on remaining life expectancy must continue during the first nine years after the year of such an event. The entire account must be fully distributed in the 10th year.
What if your designated beneficiary is your spouse?
There are many special rules if your spouse is your designated beneficiary. The 10-year rule generally has no effect until after the death of your spouse, or possibly until after the death of your spouse’s designated beneficiary.
What life expectancy is used to determine RMDs after you die?
Annual required distributions based on life expectancy are generally calculated each year by dividing the account balance as of December 31 of the previous year by the applicable denominator for the current year (but the RMD will never exceed the entire account balance on the date of the distribution).
When your life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is your life expectancy in the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. When the nonspouse beneficiary’s life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is that beneficiary’s life expectancy in the year following the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. (Note that if the applicable denominator is reduced to zero in any year using this “subtract one” method, the entire account would need to be distributed.) And at the end of the appropriate 10-year period, any remaining balance must be distributed.
Relief for certain RMDs from inherited retirement accounts for 2024
The IRS has announced that it will not assert the penalty tax in certain circumstances where individuals affected by the RMD changes failed to take annual distributions in 2024 during one of the 10-year periods. (Similar relief was previously provided for 2021, 2022, and 2023.) For example, relief may be available if the IRA owner or employee died in 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 and on or after their RBD and the designated beneficiary who is not an EDB did not take annual distributions for 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 as required (during the 10-year period following the IRA owner’s or employee’s death). Relief might also be available if an EDB died in 2020, 2021, 2022, or 2023 and annual distributions were not taken in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 as required (during the 10-year period following the EDB’s death).
The rules relating to required minimum distributions are complicated, and the consequences of making a mistake can be severe. Talk to a tax professional to understand how the rules, and the new regulations, apply to your individual situation.
New Consumer Protections for Weary Airline Passengers
Banks, hospitals, retailers, and airlines are still dealing with the fallout from the massive CrowdStrike IT outage in July. The tech meltdown impacted businesses across the globe, and airlines were hit particularly hard. This was not good news for the airline industry, which just last year had the highest number of flight delays ever recorded.1
The U.S. Department of Transportation determined that the delays and cancellations resulting from the CrowdStrike outage were “controllable,” or caused by the airline. As a result, most airlines were obligated to provide some sort of compensation and assistance to stranded travelers.2
Fortunately, there could be much-needed relief for airline passengers on the horizon, thanks to a new federal law and rules issued by the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Hassle-free refunds
In the past, airline passengers were forced to figure out how to obtain a refund by researching an airline’s website or waiting for hours on the phone with an airline’s customer service department. Airline passengers will be entitled to an automatic refund for:
- Cancelled or significantly delayed flights (e.g., departure or arrival times delayed by three hours or more for domestic flights and by six hours or more for international flights), regardless of the reason
- Significantly delayed baggage return
- Extra services (e.g., Wi-Fi, seat selection, or inflight entertainment) that were paid for but not provided
Airlines must issue refunds of the full amount of the ticket purchased within seven business days of refunds becoming due for credit card purchases and 20 days for other payment methods. Passengers who accept a ticket for a significantly delayed flight or are rebooked on a different flight to their destination will not receive refunds. The refunds must be in the form of cash or whatever original payment method was used to make the purchase (e.g., credit card or airline miles). Finally, airlines are not allowed to substitute for other forms of compensation (e.g., vouchers or travel credits) unless a passenger affirmatively chooses to accept an alternate form of compensation.
Protection against surprise fees
Many airlines advertise cheap “teaser” fares that don’t take into account additional fees — all of which can significantly increase the cost of a ticket. Airlines will be required to disclose various ancillary fees up front, such as charges for checked bags, carry-on bags, and changing or cancelling a reservation. They must also provide a detailed explanation of each fee before a ticket can be purchased. In addition, under a proposed rule airlines will be prohibited from charging families an extra fee to guarantee a child will sit next to a parent or adult travel companion.
When are these protections scheduled to take effect?
These consumer protections are scheduled to have different implementation periods over the next year. In addition, the rule on surprise fee disclosures was temporarily blocked by a U.S. Appeals Court last week. Visit the U.S. Department of Transportation’s website at transportation.gov/airconsumer for more information.
1-2) U.S. Department of Transportation, 2024
Tax Treatment of Work-Life Referral Services
The IRS has provided informal guidance on the federal income tax treatment to an employee of certain work-life referral services offered as an employee benefit.
What is a work-life referral program?
Employers often provide eligible employees with a work-life referral service as an employee benefit. Work-life referral services assist employees with identifying, contacting, and negotiating with life-management resources for solutions to a personal, work, or family challenge.
Work-life referral services might be offered in connection with, for example, the following:
- Identifying appropriate education, care, and medical service providers
- Choosing a child or dependent care program
- Navigating eligibility for government benefits, including Veterans Administration benefits
- Evaluating and using paid leave programs offered through an employer or a state or locality
- Locating home services professionals who specialize in adapting a home for a family member with special care needs
- Navigating the medical system, including private insurance and public programs, and utilizing available medical travel benefits
- Connecting the employee with local retirement and financial planning professionals
How are work-life referral services taxed?
A fringe benefit provided by an employer to an employee is presumed to be income to the employee unless specifically excluded from gross income under the Internal Revenue Code. One exception is for de minimis fringe benefits: a fringe benefit which, considering its value and the frequency with which it is provided, is so small that accounting for it would be unreasonable or administratively impracticable.
The IRS guidance notes that work-life referral programs may be available to a significant portion of an employer’s employees, but they are used infrequently by employees and only when an employee faces one of the challenges the programs are designed to address.
Accordingly, the IRS concluded that work-life referral services are excluded from gross income as a de minimis fringe benefit. Furthermore, these services are excluded from federal employment taxes, including FICA (Social Security and Medicare taxes), FUTA (federal unemployment tax), and federal income tax withholding.
Work-life referral services are often included in an employee assistance program (EAP) or otherwise bundled with other types of services offered by an employer. The IRS guidance provided here applies only to the work-life referral program itself; it does not address the tax treatment of direct or indirect payment for the life-management resources offered through an EAP or that may be bundled with a work-life referral program. Under the general rule, those other services would be presumed to be income to the employee unless specifically excluded from gross income under the Internal Revenue Code.
See FS-2024-13, April 2024
Real Estate Commission Changes August 17, 2024
In March 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reached a landmark $418 million settlement after losing an antitrust lawsuit filed by a group of home sellers. As many as 50 million people who paid commissions on homes sold in recent years could receive a small amount from the class-action settlement. The powerful industry group also agreed to change long-standing practices related to sales commissions.1
Background
For decades, many real estate agents have had little choice but to join NAR and follow its rules regarding local Multiple Listing Services (MLS) — the databases used by most brokers to list information about properties for sale. Listing brokers typically cooperated with buyer’s agents and split the commission paid by the seller, with the amounts communicated via the MLS in fields that were only visible to agents.
Plaintiffs claimed that NAR (and brokers that require agents to be NAR members) conspired to artificially inflate commissions through an industry-wide practice requiring the seller to pay commissions to brokers on both sides of the transaction. They believed this helped to uphold a nationwide standard of five to six percent of the sales price, which is significantly higher than the commissions paid in many other countries.2
Practice changes
Effective August 17, 2024, NAR will implement the following new policies related to how real estate brokers are compensated to handle transactions.3
- Commission offers for buyer’s agents can no longer be required or appear in the MLS, though they are still permitted. Listing agents can advertise specific commission offers on brokerage websites and over the phone, text message, or email. Home sellers and their agents will negotiate directly with buyers and their agents regarding compensation.
- Prior to touring homes, buyers will have to discuss and set compensation directly with their own agents, as sellers do with listing agents. They will be asked to sign written representation agreements that outline the agents’ services (e.g., showing property, negotiating offers, transaction management) and how much they charge. This is to help ensure that buyers are fully aware of the costs they could be responsible for paying.
Implications for buyers and sellers
These changes are intended to allow more room for negotiation and spur competition, which could conceivably help lower costs for sellers. Commissions have always been baked into transaction prices, so in markets where sellers’ costs fall, home prices would likely be reduced as well.
Some economists believe commissions could drop as much as 30% if buyer’s agents face pressure from potential clients to discount their fees, but savings of this magnitude aren’t guaranteed.4 The impact on real estate commissions will ultimately depend on market conditions, which can vary greatly by location, and how sellers, buyers, and agents respond to the new practices.
Like other businesses, brokerages have overhead that includes rent, liability insurance, marketing, and other operating costs. Most individual agents must split sales commissions with their brokers (from about 60/40 up to 80/20 for the most productive agents), or they pay fees to the company.
A buyer’s agent sometimes shows property to clients over a period of days to months and may write numerous offers for deals that never come together. Many experienced buyer’s agents — long accustomed to receiving the same commission as the listing agent — may be reluctant to work for less, even if they must justify their value more regularly.
Buyers will determine the commission for their own agents, but the money may or may not come out of their own pockets. For example, it’s possible that an offer could be made contingent on the seller paying the buyer’s share of the commission or include a request for a general credit toward closing costs in the amount needed to pay the buyer’s agent. Current lending guidelines and regulations would prevent most buyers from adding commission costs to their mortgages. A rule pertaining to VA loans, which specifically prohibited borrowers from paying agent commissions, has been temporarily suspended.5
In some cases, sellers might agree to cover buyers’ commissions, as it has long been customary and could still be in their best interests. Nationwide home prices have risen more than 50% since 2019, and high interest rates have made mortgage payments much less affordable.6 This means sellers with equity tend to be in a better position to pay commissions than potential buyers, many of whom may struggle to produce enough cash for the down payment. For these reasons, a seller who’s willing to pay all or some of the buyer’s commission may receive more offers, and a higher purchase price, than one who refuses to do so.
Online sites have made it easier to shop for a home without using an agent, so more buyers might brave the market on their own if they think they can pocket the savings. Yet buying a home is the biggest financial transaction many people will make in their lifetimes, and the issues that come up during the process can be unexpected. There are many situations in which buyers could benefit from having their own representation, especially if they are inexperienced or unfamiliar with the local market.
First-time buyers in particular — who were responsible for 31% of existing home sales in May 2024 — may have more confidence and make more informed decisions if they work with a trusted professional.7 But many will need help from sellers to pay their agents’ fees, putting them at a bigger disadvantage than ever against buyers with more access to cash in competitive markets.
Negotiating commissions among all parties is likely to make it harder to strike deals in general, so buyers may have to search longer and write more offers before they are successful. It’s also possible that sellers will see slight change in commission costs in the coming months, while the market is in flux. But in time, the new rules could spark innovation that creates new business models and expands lower-cost options.
1) The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024
2, 4) The New York Times, May 10, 2024
3, 5, 7) National Association of Realtors, 2024
6) The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2024
The Economic Impact of an Aging World
During the week of June 10, 2024, French markets were rocked by a government bond sell-off after a strong showing by the far-right National Rally party in the European Union election. With polls suggesting the party might win a plurality of seats in the upcoming French parliamentary election, investors feared a promised social spending program, including a reduction of the minimum retirement age from 64 to 60, would further strain the already struggling French economy.1
As it turned out, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which also promised expensive social spending and a reduction in the pension age, won the most seats on election day. The initial reaction in the government bond market was muted, but analysts predicted further turmoil to come.2 By contrast, when France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2023, aiming to strengthen the economy, workers took to the streets in protest.3
Supporting senior programs
The French conflict over the retirement age reflects a fundamental social and economic issue throughout the developed world. Put simply, the world population is getting older, which means the percentage of workers in the population who can drive the economy and support old age pension and health-care programs is gradually diminishing.
The U.S. Social Security program is a prime example. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers paying into the program for each beneficiary. In 2024, there are 2.7, projected to drop to 2.3 by 2040. Because of this demographic shift, Social Security no longer pays for itself and has been partially supported by trust fund reserves built up when there were more workers per beneficiary. The reserves for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which helps support retirement benefits, are projected to run out in 2033, at which time program income would cover only 79% of scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to increase funding.4
Medicare faces a similar challenge. The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund reserves, which help pay for Medicare Part A inpatient and hospital care benefits, are projected to be depleted in 2036, at which time payroll taxes and other revenue will pay only 89% of costs. Part B medical benefits and Part D prescription drug coverage are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund, but they will require an increasingly larger share of the federal budget unless economic growth outpaces spending.5
Longer lives, fewer children
The shift to an older population is driven by two demographic trends: people are living longer and having fewer children. One in six people in the world will be age 65 or older by 2050.6 The United States is already at that level, with more than 17% of the population age 65 or older in 2022, projected to reach almost 23% by 2050.7 Many other developed nations are even older. In 2022, the median age in the United States (the age at which half the population is older and half younger) was 38.9, the highest on record.8 In 2021 (most recent data), it was 48.4 in Japan, 46.8 in Italy, 44.9 in Germany, and 41.6 in France.9
The fertility rate, the average number of children born to each woman, has dropped throughout the world, due to a variety of factors including education, access to birth control, employment opportunities, and lifestyle choices. In the developed world, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is considered the replacement rate at which a country’s population remains stable. It is slightly higher in developing nations with higher mortality. Most developed countries have been below replacement since the 1970s, so they have depended on immigration to maintain or grow population.10 The U.S. fertility rate was 1.62 in 2023.11 Although fertility is higher in developing countries, it is dropping. Based on preliminary data, one academic study suggests that the global fertility rate may be near or below replacement for the first time in human history.12
Challenges and solutions
Spending on programs for an aging population is already straining economies throughout the world, and the economic pressure will increase as populations continue to age. The burden is not only the cost of the programs, but also the potential for lower production and tax revenue from a workforce that is smaller in proportion to the total population. This is likely to drive up government debt, and increased government borrowing, along with competition for a smaller pool of workers, may lead to higher inflation.13
So far, government programs to encourage couples to have more children have not had a significant impact, and there is no clear correlation between the fertility rate and child-care and housing costs, student debt, employment, religious beliefs, or local laws governing contraception and abortion. This suggests that the decision to have fewer children is more deeply ingrained in fundamental lifestyle choices. For developed countries, immigration may continue to provide a larger workforce, but recent immigration to developed nations has tended to be unskilled workers.14
The funding gap for government pension programs such as Social Security can be addressed by a combination of solutions that may be politically unpopular but are unlikely to derail the broader economy: higher retirement ages, increased payroll taxes, and means testing for wealthier beneficiaries.15 The larger question is how to keep growing the global economy. This may require increased worker productivity driven by recent technologies and greater integration of older workers into the workforce.
U.S. worker productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2024, well above the annual average since the end of World War II. If this trend continues, it could help balance some productivity loss as older people exit the workforce. Americans are already working longer, about one out of five of those age 65 and older was employed in 2024, almost double the number in 1985.16 The long-term solution may require rethinking the traditional model of a career, with more opportunity for lifelong learning and late-life career development. Studies indicate that working longer may help prevent cognitive decline, but it also could help balance the macroeconomic effects of global aging.17
Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.
1) Bloomberg, June 16, 2024
2) CNBC, July 8, 2024
3, 17) The New York Times, January 21, 2023
4) 2024 Social Security Trustees Report
5) 2024 Medicare Trustees Report
6, 9–10) United Nations World Population Prospects 2022
7–8) U.S. Census Bureau, 2023
11) National Center for Health Statistics, April 2024
12, 14) The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2024
13) Bloomberg, May 21, 2024
15) Social Security Administration, September 27, 2023
16) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
Real Estate Roundup: Feeling the Impact of Higher Rates
U.S. commercial real estate prices fell more than 11% between March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, and January 2024. The potential for steeper losses has chilled the market and still poses significant risks to some property owners and lenders.1
On the residential side of the market, the national median price of an existing home rose 5.7% over the year that ended in April 2024 to reach $407,600, a record high for April.2 Despite sky-high borrowing costs, buyer demand (driven up by younger generations forming new households) has exceeded the supply of homes for sale.
Here are some of the factors affecting these distinct markets and the broader economy.
Slow-motion commercial meltdown
The expansion of remote work and e-commerce (two byproducts of the pandemic) drastically reduced demand for office and retail space, especially in major metros. An estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial loans are maturing in 2024 and 2025, but depressed property values combined with high financing costs and vacancy rates could make it difficult for owners to clear their debt.3 In April 2024, an estimated $38 billion of office buildings were threatened by default, foreclosure, or distress, the highest amount since 2012.4
In a televised interview on 60 Minutes in February, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the mounting losses in commercial real estate are a “sizable problem” that could take years to resolve, but the risks to the financial system appear to be manageable.5
Locked-up housing market
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from around 3.2% in the beginning of 2022 to a 23-year high of nearly 8% in October 2023. Mortgage rates have ticked down since then but not as much as many people hoped. In May 2024, the average rate hovered around 7%.6
The inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low since the pandemic, but a nationwide housing shortage has been in the works for decades. The housing crash devastated the construction industry, and labor shortages, limited land, higher material costs, and local building restrictions have all been blamed for a long-term decline of new single-family home construction. Freddie Mac estimated the housing shortfall was 3.8 million units in 2021 (most recent data).7
Many homeowners have mortgages with ultra-low rates, making them reluctant to sell because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates. This “lock-in effect” has worsened the inventory shortage and cut deeply into home sales. At the same time, the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability and locked many aspiring first-time buyers out of homeownership.
In April 2024, inventories were up 16% over the previous year, but there was still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. (A market with a six-month supply is viewed as balanced between buyers and sellers.) The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million was up 34% over the previous year, which may help affluent buyers, but won’t do much to improve the affordability of entry-level homes.8
New construction kicking in
Newly built homes accounted for 33.4% of homes for sale in Q1 2024, down from a peak of 34.5% in 2022, but still about double the pre-pandemic share. The growth in market share for new homes was mostly due to the lack of existing homes for sale.9
April 2024 was the second highest month for total housing completions in 15 years, with 1.62 million units (measured on an annualized basis), including single-family and multi-family homes.10 This may cause apartment vacancies to trend higher, help slow rent growth, and allow more families to purchase brand new homes in the next few months.
Renters are seeing relief thanks to a glut of multi-family apartment projects that were started in 2021 and 2022 — back when interest rates were low — and are gradually becoming available. In Q1 2024, the average apartment rent fell to $1,731, 1.8% below the peak in summer 2023.11
Effects weave through the economy
By one estimate, the construction and management of commercial buildings contributed $2.5 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), generated $881.4 billion in personal earnings, and supported 15 million jobs in 2023.12 And according to the National Association of Realtors, residential real estate contributed an estimated $4.9 trillion (or 18%) to U.S. GDP in 2023, with each median-priced home sale generating about $125,000. When a home is purchased (new or existing), it tends to increase housing-related expenditures such as appliances, furniture, home improvement, and landscaping.13
Both real estate industries employ many types of professionals, and the development of new homes and buildings stimulates local economies by creating well-paying construction jobs and boosting property tax receipts. Development benefits other types of businesses (locally and nationally) by increasing production and employment in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, equipment, and components.
Shifts in real estate values, up or down, can influence consumer and business finances, confidence, and spending. And when buying a home seems unattainable, some younger consumers might give up on that goal and spend their money on other things.
If interest rates stay high for too long it could accelerate commercial loan defaults, losses, and bank failures, continue to constrain home sales, or eventually push down home values — and any of these outcomes would have the potential to cut into economic growth. When the Federal Reserve finally begins to cut interest rates, borrowing costs should follow, but that’s not likely to happen until inflation is no longer viewed as the larger threat.
1, 3) International Monetary Fund, January 18, 2024
2, 8, 10, 13) National Association of Realtors, 2024
4) The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2024
5) CBS News, February 4, 2024
6–7) Freddie Mac, 2022–2024
9) Redfin, May 20, 2024
11) Moody’s, April 1, 2024
12) NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association, 2024
Tax Treatment of Home Energy Rebates
The IRS has provided guidance on the federal income tax treatment of certain home energy rebates offered by states, with funds provided by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).
Background
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 included two provisions allowing rebates for home energy efficiency retrofit projects and home electrification and appliance projects. These home energy rebate programs are to be administered by state energy offices, with the DOE providing guidance and oversight.
For a home energy efficiency retrofit project with at least 20% predicted energy savings, a rebate may be available per household for 80% of project costs, up to $4,000 (reduced to 50% of project costs, up to $2,000, if household income is above 80% of area median income (AMI)). For a home energy efficiency retrofit project with at least 35% predicted energy savings, a rebate may be available per household for 80% of project costs, up to $8,000 (reduced to 50% of project costs, up to $4,000, if household income is above 80% of AMI).
For a home electrification and appliance project, a rebate may be available per household for 100% of project costs, up to specific technology cost maximums, with a maximum total of $14,000. The 100% of project costs limit is reduced to 50% if household income is above 80% of AMI. This rebate is not available if household income is above 150% of AMI. The specific technology cost maximums range from $840 for an Energy Star electric stove to $8,000 for an Energy Star electric heat pump for space heating and cooling.
Treatment of DOE home energy rebates to purchasers
A rebate paid to or on behalf of a purchaser pursuant to either of the DOE home energy rebate programs is not includible in the purchaser’s gross income. However, it will be treated as a purchase price adjustment for the purchaser for federal income tax purposes.
To the extent the rebate is provided at the time of sale, the rebate is not included in the purchaser’s cost (or tax) basis in the property. To the extent the rebate is provided later, the tax basis is reduced.
Treatment of DOE home energy rebates to certain business taxpayers
Payments of rebate amounts made directly to a business taxpayer, such as a contractor, in connection with the business taxpayer’s sale of goods or provision of services to a purchaser are includable in the business taxpayer’s income.
Coordination of DOE home energy rebates with the energy efficient home improvement credit
In some cases, a taxpayer can receive an energy efficient home improvement credit for federal income tax purposes. The credit is for 30% of amounts paid for certain qualified expenditures, with limits on the allowable annual credit and on the amount of credit for certain types of qualified expenditures. The maximum annual credit amount may be up to $3,200.
If the taxpayer receives a DOE home energy rebate (whether at the time of sale or later), the amount of qualified expenditures used to calculate the energy efficient home improvement credit must be reduced by the amount of the rebate. If the taxpayer purchases items eligible for both the DOE home energy rebate and the energy efficient home improvement credit, the taxpayer can make a pro rata allocation of amounts received as rebates to the individually itemized expenditures as a share of total project cost in determining the amounts treated as paid or incurred for such items for purpose of the various limits on costs under the energy efficient home improvement credit.
