International Investing: The Diverging Fortunes of China and Japan
The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed markets outside of the United States, advanced 15% in 2023, while U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index returned 24%.1 One of the world’s hottest developed stock markets was in Japan, where the Nikkei 225 rose 28% in 2023, delivering the best performance in Asia.2 On the other hand, in China — which is still considered an emerging market — the benchmark CSI 300 Index lost more than 11% over the same period.3
Investing internationally provides growth opportunities that may be different than those in the United States, which could help boost returns and/or enhance diversification in your portfolio. It may help to consider the risks, economic forces, and government policies that might continue to impact stock prices in these two news-making Asian markets and elsewhere in the world.
A tale of two economies
Ranked by gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of a nation’s business activity, China is the world’s second-largest economy after the United States.4 Japan fell from third place to fourth, behind Germany, at the end of 2023.5
In February 2024, the Nikkei surpassed a peak last seen in 1989.6 Conversely, Chinese stocks fell more than 40% from their peak in June 2021, before turning up slightly in February and March.7
GDP growth in Japan has been lackluster; in fact, the nation barely averted a recession at the end of 2023.8 What has been driving the market’s outperformance? After battling deflation (or falling prices) for more than two decades, the emergence of inflation in Japan has been good for businesses. Japanese companies have been putting their capital to work, growing profits, and returning them to shareholders, which has attracted foreign investors. A weaker yen helped by making Japanese products cheaper overseas.9 The Bank of Japan ended the era of negative interest rates when it raised short-term rates on March 19, 2024.10
China’s GDP growth slowed to about 5.2% in 2023, as weaker consumption and investment cut into business activity. China is still growing faster than most advanced nations, but it’s contending with a years-long real estate crisis.11 Deflation has set in, while underemployment and youth unemployment have risen to high levels, damaging consumer confidence.12 Moreover, a visible government crackdown on the private sector has rattled investors and scared away many foreign firms.13 In early 2024, the Chinese government took steps to help stabilize the stock market that included boosting liquidity, supporting property developers, and encouraging more bank lending and homebuying.14
Global economic outlook
The International Monetary Fund sees a path to a soft landing for the global economy, projecting steady growth of 3.1% for 2024, about the same rate as 2023. Inflation, which has fallen rapidly in most regions, is expected to continue its descent.15
The downside risks to this hopeful outlook include fiscal challenges, high debt levels, and lingering economic strain from high interest rates. Price spikes caused by geopolitical conflict, supply disruptions, or more persistent underlying inflation could prevent central banks from loosening monetary policies. The possibility of further deterioration in China’s property sector is another cause for concern.16
A world of opportunity
It can be more complicated to perform due diligence and identify sound investments in unfamiliar and less transparent foreign markets, and there are potential risks that may be unique to a specific country. Mutual funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide a relatively effortless way to invest in a variety of international stocks. International funds range from broad global funds that attempt to capture worldwide economic activity, to regional funds and others that focus on a single country. The term “ex U.S.” or “ex US” typically means that the fund does not include domestic stocks, whereas “global” or “world” funds may include a mix of U.S. and international stocks.
Some funds are limited to developed nations, whereas others concentrate on nations with emerging (or developing) economies. The stocks of companies located in emerging nations might offer greater growth potential, but they are riskier and less liquid than those in more advanced economies. For any international stock fund, it’s important to understand the mix of countries represented by the underlying securities.
It may be tempting to increase your exposure to a booming foreign market. However, chasing performance might cause you to buy shares at high prices and suffer more severe losses when conditions shift. And if your long-term investment strategy includes international stocks, be prepared to hold tight — or take advantage of lower prices — during bouts of market volatility.
Diversification is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. The return and principal value of all stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Supply and demand for ETF shares may cause them to trade at a premium or a discount relative to the value of the underlying shares. Foreign securities carry additional risks that may result in greater share price volatility, including differences in financial reporting and currency exchange risk; these risks should be carefully managed with your goals and risk tolerance in mind. Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not happen.
Mutual funds and ETFs are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.
1) London Stock Exchange Group, 2024
2) CNBC.com, December 28, 2023
3, 7) Yahoo! Finance, 2024 (data for the period 6/01/2021 through 3/20/2024)
4, 13) The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2024
5) CNBC.com, February 14, 2024
6, 9) The Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2024
8, 10) CNBC.com, March 19, 2024
11, 15–16) International Monetary Fund, January 2024
12) The Wall Street Journal, January 27, 2024
14) Bloomberg, February 7, 2024
Can Productivity Keep Driving the U.S. Economy?
Productivity of U.S. workers increased by 2.7% in 2023 — well above the average annual rate of 2.1% since the end of World War II, and a dramatic change from 2022, when productivity dropped by 2.0%. It’s also a substantial improvement over the 0.9% growth rate in 2021.1
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, “Productivity growth is a primary driver of long-term economic growth and improvements in living standards.”2 On a more immediate level, the productivity surge in 2023 may help explain why the U.S. economy was able to grow at a strong pace while inflation dropped.
Doing more with less
Broadly, productivity is the ratio of output to inputs. A productivity increase means that output increases faster than input, essentially producing more with less.
The most cited productivity measure for the U.S. economy is labor productivity for the nonfarm business sector (the data cited in the first paragraph of this report). In simple terms, this is the value of goods and services produced per hour of labor. The nonfarm business sector comprises most U.S. business activity excluding farms, general government, and nonprofits.
Boosting GDP while fighting inflation
The 2.7% increase in 2023 means that, on average, 2.7% more value was created for each hour of labor. This helps boost gross domestic product (GDP), while also helping to control inflation by holding back the wage-price spiral, which can push inflation out of control.
In a tight employment market, as we have had for some time, a shortage of workers can force businesses to offer higher wages, which they pass on to consumers as higher prices. Because consumers are then earning more at their jobs, they demand more goods and services and are willing to pay higher prices, which pushes businesses to hire more workers at higher wages, continuing the cycle. Increased productivity allows business to keep prices lower even as they pay workers more. This seems to have occurred in 2023, with average hourly wages rising by 4.3%, while inflation dropped to 3.4% — the first time since the pandemic that wages increased faster than inflation.3
Compensating for demographics
Increasing productivity is especially important for the U.S. economy because of lower birth rates, the aging of the population, and more young people staying in school. The labor force participation rate, which measures the percentage of people age 16 and older who are working or looking for work, peaked in early 2000 and has trended downward since then.4 Higher productivity enables a smaller workforce to drive economic growth on a level that would require a larger workforce without productivity gains.
Why is productivity increasing and can it be sustained?
Increases in labor productivity are typically driven by improved tools and technology, more efficient processes and organizations, and increased worker experience, education, and training. The proliferation of computers in the workplace spurred a productivity surge in the 1990s, and some analysts point to artificial intelligence (AI) as contributing to the 2023 increase. It’s possible that AI has already improved some businesses, but any large-scale impact may take years, as businesses integrate AI through worker training and new processes. As this unfolds, AI could help drive a long-term productivity surge.
A more immediate explanation for the current increase may be adjustment and experience with the hybrid work model. A recent survey found that 43% of remote workers felt working from home makes them more productive, while only 14% believed it makes them less productive. (Another 43% said it makes no difference.)5 The ideal situation would allow employees to work in the most productive environment. Three years after the pandemic, businesses may be improving that balance, and it’s possible that further developments in hybrid work could continue to drive productivity gains for some time.
New businesses can spur productivity through innovation, filling specialized niches, and producing specific goods or services more efficiently. New business applications surged during and after the pandemic, with more than 20 million from 2020 to 2023. Only about 10% of applications turn into businesses, but some new enterprises may already be making a difference, and the surge of entrepreneurship bodes well for future productivity.6
A less positive factor may be that some companies laid off employees and made other changes in 2023 in anticipation of a recession that never materialized. Layoffs typically target the least productive employees, and remaining employees may increase their productivity to maintain production levels. While this “lean” model is not always sustainable, it can boost productivity in the short term, and technology and more efficient processes may enable some businesses to stay lean.
Volatile data
Measuring productivity is difficult, especially in service industries, which now comprise the largest sector of U.S. economic activity. For this reason, productivity data can be volatile and often changes with revision. (The 2.7% Q4 data is preliminary.) Even so, the surge in 2023 seems solid, and enhancements such as artificial intelligence, hybrid work, and new business innovation could usher in a sustained period of productivity growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases productivity data quarterly, with Q1 2024 data coming in May. You might keep an eye out for a continuing trend.
1, 3–4) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
2) Congressional Research Service, January 3, 2023
5) Bloomberg, January 30, 2024
6) U.S. Chamber of Commerce, February 2, 2024
Tax Relief Legislation in “Progress”?
Legislation that could benefit parents and business-owners is currently moving through Congress. The House has passed the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. It now faces an uncertain future in the Senate. The legislation would make changes to the child tax credit and to certain business tax provisions. Some significant provisions in the legislation that may provide tax relief are summarized below.
Child tax credit provisions
If enacted, the legislation may increase the availability and amount of the child tax credit.
- The formula for calculation of the refundable portion of the child tax credit would be modified to take into account the number of children a parent has (effective for 2023, 2024, and 2025).
- The overall limit on the refundable portion of the child tax credit would increase from $1,600 in 2023 and $1,700 in 2024 to $1,800 in 2023, $1,900 in 2024, and $2,000 in 2025.
- The $2,000 maximum child tax credit would be adjusted for inflation in 2024 and 2025.
- In 2024 and 2025, earned income from the prior taxable year would be able to be used in calculating the maximum child tax credit if earned income for the current year is less than earned income for the prior year.
Business tax provisions
The legislation includes several business tax provisions that generally allow the acceleration of expense deductions.
- Under current law, domestic research or experimental expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, must be deducted over a five-year period. The legislation would allow such expenditures paid or incurred in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2021, and before January 1, 2026, to be fully deductible in the year paid or incurred.
- For purposes of calculating the limitation on the deduction of business interest, the legislation would allow adjusted taxable income to be determined without regard to any allowance for depreciation, amortization, or depletion for taxable years beginning after December 31, 2023, and before January 1, 2026 (with similar treatment for 2022 and 2023, if elected).
- In recent years, the special additional first-year depreciation allowance, or bonus depreciation, has been decreasing under current law — reaching 80% in 2023 and 60% in 2024. The legislation would allow 100% bonus depreciation for qualified property placed in service after December 31, 2022, and before January 1, 2026.
- Section 179 expensing allows the cost of qualified property to be expensed, rather than recovered through depreciation. The maximum amount that can be expensed is $1,220,000 in 2024, reduced to the extent the cost of Section 179 property placed in service during the year exceeds $3,050,000 in 2024. The legislation would increase those amounts to $1,290,000 and $3,220,000 in 2024 (and adjust for inflation in 2025).
There’s Still Time to Fund an IRA for 2023
The tax filing deadline is fast approaching, which means time is running out to fund an IRA for 2023. If you had earned income last year, you may be able to contribute up to $6,500 for 2023 ($7,500 for those age 50 or older by December 31, 2023) up until your tax return due date, excluding extensions. For most people, that date is Monday, April 15, 2024.
You can contribute to a traditional IRA, a Roth IRA, or both. Total contributions cannot exceed the annual limit or 100% of your taxable compensation, whichever is less. You may also be able to contribute to an IRA for your spouse for 2023, even if your spouse had no earned income.
Traditional IRA contributions may be deductible
If you and your spouse were not covered by a work-based retirement plan in 2023, your traditional IRA contributions are fully tax deductible. If you were covered by a work-based plan, you can take a full deduction if you’re single and had a 2023 modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) of $73,000 or less, or married filing jointly with a 2023 MAGI of $116,000 or less. You may be able to take a partial deduction if your MAGI fell within the following limits.
| 2023 income ranges for a partial deduction for traditional IRA contributions: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Covered by a work-based plan and filing as: | Partial deduction if your MAGI is between: | No deduction if your MAGI is: |
| Single/Head of household | $73,000 and $83,000 | $83,000 or more |
| Married filing jointly | $116,000 and $136,000 | $136,000 or more |
| Married filing separately | $0 and $10,000 | $10,000 or more |
If you were not covered by a work-based plan but your spouse was, you can take a full deduction if your joint MAGI was $218,000 or less, a partial deduction if your MAGI fell between $218,000 and $228,000, and no deduction if your MAGI was $228,000 or more.
Consider Roth IRAs as an alternative
If you can’t make a deductible traditional IRA contribution, a Roth IRA may be a more appropriate alternative. Although Roth IRA contributions are not tax-deductible, qualified distributions are tax-free. You can make a full Roth IRA contribution for 2023 if you’re single and your MAGI was $138,000 or less, or married filing jointly with a 2023 MAGI of $218,000 or less. Partial contributions may be allowed if your MAGI fell within the following limits.
| 2023 income ranges for partial contributions to a Roth IRA: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Partial contributions are allowed if your MAGI is between: | You cannot contribute if your MAGI is: | |
| Single/Head of household | $138,000 and $153,000 | $153,000 or more |
| Married filing jointly | $218,000 and $228,000 | $228,000 or more |
| Married filing separately | $0 and $10,000 | $10,000 or more |
Tip: If you can’t make an annual contribution to a Roth IRA because of the income limits, there is a workaround. You can make a nondeductible contribution to a traditional IRA and then immediately convert that traditional IRA contribution to a Roth IRA. (This is sometimes called a backdoor Roth IRA.) Keep in mind, however, that you’ll need to aggregate all traditional IRAs and SEP/SIMPLE IRAs you own — other than IRAs you’ve inherited — when you calculate the taxable portion of your conversion.
A qualified distribution from a Roth IRA is one made after the account is held for at least five years and the account owner reaches age 59½, becomes disabled, or dies. If you make an initial contribution — no matter how small — to a Roth IRA for 2023 by your tax return due date, and it is your first Roth IRA contribution, your five-year holding period starts on January 1, 2023.
You have until your tax return due date, excluding extensions, to contribute up to $6,500 for 2023 ($7,500 if you were age 50 or older on December 31, 2023) to all IRAs combined. For most taxpayers, the contribution deadline for 2023 is April 15, 2024.
Tax Season News and Survival Tips
It’s not easy to keep up with complex tax laws that always seem to be changing, much less figure out how they might affect you personally. Even so, it’s important to consider the potential impact of taxes when making many types of financial decisions.
The IRS automatically adjusts the standard deduction and income tax brackets annually for inflation. The rate of inflation rose to 40-year highs in 2022, so the 7% increases for 2023 are the largest since these adjustments began in 1985.¹ The standard deduction is $13,850 for single filers in 2023 (up $900 from 2022) and $27,700 for married joint filers (up $1,800).
The filing deadline for 2023 federal income tax returns is April 15, 2024, (April 17 in Maine and Massachusetts, due to local holidays). Even though the 2024 tax year is well underway, there may still be time to take steps that lower your tax liability for 2023.
Understand “marginal” tax rates
U.S. tax rates increase at progressively higher income levels or brackets. If your taxable income goes up and moves you into a higher bracket, the resulting tax increase might not be as bad as it may appear at first glance. For example, if you and your spouse are filing jointly for 2023 and have a taxable income of $110,000, you are in the 22% tax bracket. However, you will not pay a 22% rate on all your income, only on the amount over $94,300.
Determining the value of certain deductions also depends on where your income falls in the tax brackets. Using the same example, a $10,000 deduction would reduce your income from $110,000 to $100,000 and theoretically reduce your tax liability by $2,200 (22% x $10,000). For a $20,000 deduction, you would have to calculate the amount of the deduction that falls in the 22% and 12% brackets: 22% x $15,700 + 12% x $4,300 ($3,454 + $516 = $3,970).
Although it’s helpful to know your marginal rate, your effective tax rate — the average rate at which your income is taxed (determined by dividing your total taxes by taxable income) — may offer a better way to gauge your tax liability.
Deduct large casualty losses
Wildfires, tornadoes, severe storms, flooding, landslides. The United States was struck by a record number of billion-dollar catastrophes in 2023.² If something you own was damaged or destroyed by a disaster, and your loss exceeds 10% of your adjusted gross income (AGI) plus $100, you may be able to claim an itemized deduction on your federal income tax return. This typically applies to large losses that are uninsured or subject to a high deductible. For 2018 to 2025, a personal casualty loss is deductible only if it is attributable to a federally declared disaster.
The rules relating to casualty losses can be complicated. If you have suffered a significant loss, it may be worthwhile to consult a tax professional.
Apply for an extension
If you can’t meet the filing deadline for any reason, you can file for and obtain an automatic six-month extension using IRS Form 4868. (Otherwise, if you owe taxes, you might face a failure-to-file penalty.) You must file for an extension by the original due date for your return. For most individuals, that’s April 15, 2024; the deadline for extended returns is October 15, 2024.
An extension to file your tax return does not postpone payment of taxes. Estimate your tax liability and pay the amount you expect to owe by the original due date. Any taxes not paid on time will be subject to interest and possible penalties.
Pay yourself instead
Making deductible contributions for 2023 to a traditional IRA and/or an existing qualified health savings account (HSA) could lower your tax bill and pad your savings. If eligible, you can contribute to your accounts up to the April 15, 2024, tax deadline.
The 2023 IRA contribution limit is $6,500 ($7,000 in 2024). If you’re 50 or older, you can make an additional $1,000 catch-up contribution. If you or your spouse is covered by a retirement plan at work, eligibility to deduct contributions phases out at higher income levels.
If you were enrolled in an HSA-eligible health plan in 2023, you can contribute up to $3,850 for individual coverage or $7,750 for family coverage. (The limits for 2024 are $4,150 and $8,300, respectively.) Each eligible spouse who is 55 or older (but not enrolled in Medicare) can contribute an additional $1,000.
Avoid scams and costly mistakes
Tax season is prime time for identity thieves who may fraudulently file a tax return in your name and claim a refund — which could delay any refund owed to you. Or you might receive threatening phone calls or emails from scammers posing as the IRS and demanding payment. Remember that the IRS will never initiate contact with you by email to request personal or financial information, and will never call you about taxes owed without sending a bill in the mail. If you think you may owe taxes, contact the IRS directly at irs.gov.
The IRS has examined less than 0.5% of all individual returns in recent years, but the agency has stated plans to increase audits on high-income taxpayers and large businesses to help recover lost tax revenue. Wherever your income falls, you probably don’t want to call attention to your return.3 Double-check any calculations you do by hand. If you use tax software, scan the entries to make sure the math and other information are accurate. Be sure to enter all income, and use good judgment in taking deductions. Keep all necessary records.
Finally, if you have questions regarding your individual circumstances and/or are not comfortable preparing your own return, consider working with an experienced tax professional.
1) The Wall Street Journal, October 18, 2022
2) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2024
3) Internal Revenue Service, 2024
January 24, 2024 Starts the 2023 Federal Tax Filing
IRS suggest steps to make tax filing easier
- Make sure you have received Form W-2 and other earnings information, such as Form 1099, from employers and payers. The dates for furnishing such information to recipients vary by form, but they are generally not required before February 1, 2024. You may need to allow additional time for mail delivery.
- Go to irs.gov to find the federal individual income tax returns, Form 1040 and Form 1040-SR (available for seniors born before January 2, 1959), and their instructions.
- File electronically and use direct deposit.
- Check irs.gov for the latest tax information.
Key dates to keep in mind
- January 12. IRS Free File opened. IRS Free File Guided Tax Software, available only at irs.gov, allows participating software companies to accept completed tax returns of any taxpayer or family with an adjusted gross income of $79,000 or less in 2023 and hold them until they can be electronically filed with the IRS starting January 29. Beginning January 29, Free File Fillable forms will be available to taxpayers of any income level to fill out and e-file themselves at no cost.
- January 29. IRS begins accepting and processing individual tax returns.
- April 15. Deadline for filing 2023 tax returns (or requesting an extension) for most taxpayers.
- April 17. Deadline for taxpayers living in Maine or Massachusetts.
- October 15. Deadline to file for those who requested an extension on their 2023 tax returns.
Tax refunds
The IRS encourages taxpayers seeking a tax refund to file their tax return as soon as possible. The IRS expects to issue most tax refunds within 21 days of their receiving a tax return if the return is filed electronically, the tax refund is delivered through direct deposit, and there are no issues with the tax return. To avoid delays in processing, the IRS encourages people to avoid paper tax returns whenever possible.
IRS Releases Standard Mileage Rates for 2024
Due to recent increases in the price of fuel, the IRS has increased the optional standard mileage rates for computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for business purposes for 2024. However, the standard mileage rates for medical and moving expense purposes are reduced for 2024. The standard mileage rate for computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for charitable purposes is set by statute and remains unchanged.
For 2024, the standard mileage rates are as follows:
- Business use of auto: 67 cents per mile (up from 65.5 cents for 2023) may be deducted if an auto is used for business purposes. If you are an employee, your employer can reimburse you for your business travel expenses using the standard mileage rate. However, if you are an employee and your employer does not reimburse you for your business travel expenses, you cannot currently deduct your unreimbursed travel expenses as miscellaneous itemized deductions.
- Charitable use of auto: 14 cents per mile (the same as for 2023) may be deducted if an auto is used to provide services to a charitable organization if you itemize deductions on your income tax return. Your charitable deduction may be limited to certain percentages of your adjusted gross income, depending on the type of charity.
- Medical use of auto: 21 cents per mile (down from 22 cents for 2023) may be deducted if an auto is used to obtain medical care (or for other deductible medical reasons) if you itemize deductions on your income tax return. You can deduct only the part of your medical and dental expenses that exceeds 7.5% of the amount of your adjusted gross income.
- Moving expense use of auto: 21 cents per mile (down from 22 cents for 2023) may be deducted if an auto is used by a member of the Armed Forces on active duty to move, pursuant to a military order, to a permanent change of station (unless such expenses are reimbursed). The deduction for moving expenses is not currently available for other taxpayers.
2024 Retirement Plan Limits
Some IRA and retirement plan limits are indexed for inflation each year. Several of these key numbers have increased once again for 2024.
How much can you save in an IRA?
The maximum amount you can contribute to a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA in 2024 will be $7,000 (or 100% of your earned income, if less), up from $6,500 in 2023. The maximum catch-up contribution for those age 50 or older remains $1,000. You can contribute to both a traditional IRA and a Roth IRA in 2024, but your total contributions cannot exceed these annual limits.
Can you deduct your traditional IRA contributions?
If you (or if you’re married, both you and your spouse) are not covered by a work-based retirement plan, your contributions to a traditional IRA are generally fully tax deductible.
If you’re married, filing jointly, and you’re not covered by an employer plan, but your spouse is, you may generally claim a full deduction if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) is $230,000 or less (up from $218,000 or less in 2023). Your deduction is limited if your MAGI is between $230,000 and $240,000 (up from $218,000 and $228,000 in 2023) and eliminated if your MAGI is $240,000 or more (up from $228,000 in 2023).
For those who are covered by an employer plan, deductibility depends on income and filing status. If your filing status is single or head of household, you can fully deduct your IRA contribution in 2024 if your MAGI is $77,000 or less (up from $73,000 in 2023). If you’re married and filing a joint return, you can fully deduct your contribution if your MAGI is $123,000 or less (up from $116,000 in 2023). For taxpayers earning more than these thresholds, the following phaseout limits apply.
|
If your 2024 federal income tax filing status is: |
Your IRA deduction is limited if your MAGI is between: |
Your deduction is eliminated if your MAGI is: |
|
Single or head of household |
$77,000 and $87,000 |
$87,000 or more |
|
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) |
$123,000 and $143,000 (combined) |
$143,000 or more (combined) |
|
Married filing separately |
$0 and $10,000 |
$10,000 or more |
Can you contribute to a Roth IRA?
The income limits for determining whether you can contribute to a Roth IRA will also increase in 2024. If your filing status is single or head of household, you can contribute the full $7,000 ($8,000 if you are age 50 or older) to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is $146,000 or less (up from $138,000 in 2023). And if you’re married and filing a joint return, you can make a full contribution if your MAGI is $230,000 or less (up from $218,000 in 2023). For taxpayers earning more than these thresholds, the following phaseout limits apply.
|
If your 2024 federal income tax filing status is: |
Your Roth IRA contribution is limited if your MAGI is between: |
You cannot contribute to a Roth IRA if your MAGI is: |
|
Single or head of household |
$146,000 and $161,000 |
$161,000 or more |
|
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow(er) |
$230,000 and $240,000 (combined) |
$240,000 or more (combined) |
|
Married filing separately |
More than $0 but less than $10,000 |
$10,000 or more |
How much can you save in a work-based plan?
If you participate in an employer-sponsored retirement plan, you may be pleased to learn that you can save even more in 2024. The maximum amount you can contribute (your “elective deferrals”) to a 401(k) plan will increase to $23,000 in 2024 (up from $22,500 in 2023). This limit also applies to 403(b) and 457(b) plans, as well as the Federal Thrift Savings Plan. If you’re age 50 or older, you can also make catch-up contributions of up to $7,500 to these plans in 2024 (unchanged from 2023). [Special catch-up limits apply to certain participants in 403(b) and 457(b) plans.]
The amount you can contribute to a SIMPLE IRA or SIMPLE 401(k) will increase to $16,000 in 2024 (up from $15,500 in 2023), and the catch-up limit for those age 50 or older remains $3,500. (Note that in 2024, new rules take effect that permit certain small employers to allow additional contributions.)
|
Plan type: |
2024 deferral limit: |
Catch-up limit: |
|
401(k), 403(b), governmental 457(b), Federal Thrift Savings Plan |
$23,000 |
$7,500 |
|
SIMPLE plans |
$16,000 |
$3,500 |
Note: Contributions can’t exceed 100% of your income.
If you participate in more than one retirement plan, your total elective deferrals can’t exceed the annual limit ($23,000 in 2024 plus any applicable catch-up contributions). Deferrals to 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, and SIMPLE plans are included in this aggregate limit, but deferrals to Section 457(b) plans are not. For example, if you participate in both a 403(b) plan and a 457(b) plan, you can save the full amount in each plan — a total of $46,000 in 2024 (plus any catch-up contributions).
The maximum amount that can be allocated to your account in a defined contribution plan [for example, a 401(k) plan or profit-sharing plan] in 2024 is $69,000 (up from $66,000 in 2023) plus age 50 or older catch-up contributions. This includes both your contributions and your employer’s contributions. Special rules apply if your employer sponsors more than one retirement plan.
Finally, the maximum amount of compensation that can be taken into account in determining benefits for most plans in 2024 is $345,000 (up from $330,000 in 2023), and the dollar threshold for determining highly compensated employees (when 2024 is the look-back year) increases to $155,000 (up from $150,000 when 2023 is the look-back year).
Are you optimistic about the 2024 Economic Outlook?
Despite high interest rates and unsettling geopolitical conflict, the U.S. economy outperformed the expectations of most economists in 2023.1 Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (Real GDP) accelerated to an annualized rate of 5.2% in the third quarter, after growing 2.1% in Q2 and 2.2% in Q1. Inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was 3.0% in October 2023, after beginning the year at 5.5%.2 The labor market stayed strong in 2023, though it has cooled off a bit. The unemployment rate edged up from 3.4% in January to 3.9% in October, but is still quite low by historical standards.3
That is all good news considering that a majority of economists polled in January 2023 believed the United States would enter a recession by the end of the year.4 Whether you are an investor, a business owner, or an employee thinking about your career prospects, you may be more interested in what lies ahead for the economy in 2024. Economic projections are essentially educated guesses. Economists in the public and private sectors are tasked with trying to predict the future based on a wide range of indicators, potential risks, and their overall impressions of market conditions. And so far, forecasts for 2024 seem to suggest the economy is kicking off the new year in a more stable position.5
Fed policies and official forecasts
Since March 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised the benchmark federal funds rate aggressively in an effort to control inflation, which had climbed to its highest levels in 40 years.6–7 Raising interest rates is meant to slow economic activity by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money, which discourages spending.
In November 2023, the Fed paused its rate hikes for the second meeting in a row, leaving the federal funds rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%, a 22-year high.8
Economic projections released at the FOMC’s September meeting indicated that slower GDP growth is expected, with a median projection of 1.5% in 2024. This was an improvement from 1.1% in the previous forecast. The committee expected PCE inflation to continue declining and end the year at 2.5%, which would still be higher than the Fed’s 2.0% target, and that the unemployment rate would tick up to 4.1% (based on median projections).9
Polling the pros
In October 2023, The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey found that a recession is no longer the consensus view of 65 top business and academic economists polled by the publication on a quarterly basis. On average, the group expects real GDP growth will slow to 1.0%, the unemployment rate will rise slightly to around 4.0%, and inflation (measured by the consumer price index) will fall to 2.4% by the end of 2024.10
Nearly 60% of the economists believed the Fed was finished hiking interest rates, and roughly half thought that rate cuts would begin in the second quarter of 2024, in response to signs of weakening growth.11
At the same time, some economists were still not convinced that the U.S. economy is out of the woods. As recently as November 2023, the Conference Board predicted that a very short and shallow recession will begin early in 2024.12
Global growth trends
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s September forecast, the global economy is expected to grow 3.0% in 2023 before slowing to 2.7% in 2024. In China, the growth rate is forecast to weaken from 5.1% in 2023 to 4.6%, due to its struggling property market and reduced domestic demand. Growth in the Euro area is expected to improve from 0.6% in 2023 to 1.1% in 2024. Inflation is expected to decline gradually, but to remain above central bank objectives in most economies.13
The problem with projections
Forecasts such as these may be helpful in making some kinds of financial decisions, but it’s also important to consider their limitations and remember that it’s not unusual for economists to change their minds. Recent years have shown how difficult it can be for forecasters to account for the impact of unforeseen economic disruption. Wild cards that could test economists in 2024 include losses from severe weather, fluctuations in oil prices, political conflict in the United States, and expansion of the war in Israel, which could harm an already fragile global economy.
In fact, Fed Chair Jerome Powell called on Fed forecasters to remain flexible in his November 2023 press conference. “Of course, even with state-of-the-art models and even in relatively calm times, the economy frequently surprises us.” He continued, “Our economy is flexible and dynamic, and subject at times to unpredictable shocks, such as a global financial crisis or a pandemic. At those times, forecasters have to think outside the models.”14
The financial markets could continue to react — and occasionally overreact — to economic news and policies announced by the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t mean you should do the same. As always, it’s important to maintain a long-term perspective and invest strategically based on your financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance.
Forecasts are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not happen. All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.
1, 4–5, 10–11) The Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey, 2022–2023
2, 7) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2023
3) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023
6, 8–9) Federal Reserve, 2023
12) The Conference Board, 2023
13) Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2023
14) thehill.com, November 8, 2023
2023 Charitable Giving
There is still time in 2023 for year-end planning. Your planning may include charitable giving. The tax benefits associated with charitable giving could potentially enhance your ability to give and should be considered as part of your year-end tax planning.
There may be tax benefits for making charitable gifts
If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct your gifts to qualified charities. This may also help increase your gift.
Example: Assume you want to make a charitable gift of $1,000. One way to potentially enhance the gift is to increase it by the amount of any income taxes you save with the charitable deduction for the gift. At a 24% tax rate, you might be able to give $1,316 to charity [$1,000 ÷ (1 – 24%) = $1,316; $1,316 x 24% = $316 taxes saved]. On the other hand, at a 32% tax rate, you might be able to give $1,471 to charity [$1,000 ÷ (1 – 32%) = $1,471; $1,471 x 32% = $471 taxes saved].
Tax benefits may be limited to certain percentages of your adjusted gross income (AGI). Your deduction for gifts to charity is limited to 50% (currently increased to 60% for cash contributions to public charities), 30%, or 20% of your AGI, depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. Charitable deductions that exceed the AGI limits may generally be carried over and deducted over the next five years, subject to the income percentage limits in those years.
Make sure to retain proper substantiation of your charitable contributions. To claim a charitable deduction for any contribution of cash, a check, or other monetary gift, you must maintain a record of such contributions through a bank record (such as a cancelled check, a bank or credit union statement, or a credit-card statement) or a written communication (such as a receipt or letter) from the charity showing the name of the charity, the date of the contribution, and the amount of the contribution. If you claim a charitable deduction for any contribution of $250 or more, you must substantiate the contribution with a contemporaneous written acknowledgment of the contribution from the charity. If you make any noncash contributions, there are additional requirements.
Year-end tax planning
When making charitable gifts at the end of the year, you should consider them as part of your year-end tax planning. Typically, you have a certain amount of control over the timing of income and expenses. You generally want to time your recognition of income so that it will be taxed at the lowest rate possible, and time your deductible expenses so they can be claimed in years when you are in a higher tax bracket.
For example, if you expect to be in a higher tax bracket next year, it may make sense to wait and make the charitable contribution in January so that you can take the deduction next year when the deduction results in a greater tax benefit. Or you might shift the charitable contribution, along with other deductions, into a year when your itemized deductions would be greater than the standard deduction amount. And if the income percentage limits above are a concern in one year, you might consider ways to shift income into that year or shift deductions out of that year, so that a larger charitable deduction is available for that year. A tax professional can help you evaluate your individual tax situation.
There are other methods of making charitable gifts. These generally are subject to additional documentation and other complexities.
Using appreciated securities that have been held for more than year allows the appreciation (gains) to be included in the amount of the contribution without paying tax on the gains.
Making Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD) is another technique. If you or your spouse are over 70 ½ the first $100,000 of each your required minimum distributions (RMD) will reduce the taxable amount of you RMD.
Caution
When making charitable contributions, be sure to deal with recognized charities and be wary of charities with names that sound like reputable charitable organizations. It is common for scam artists to impersonate reputable charities using bogus websites as well as misleading email, phone, social media, and in-person solicitations. Check out the charity on the IRS website, irs.gov, using the Tax-Exempt Organization Search tool. And remember, don’t send cash; contribute by check or credit card.
