What Happens if There is a Government Shutdown?

There are only a few days till the U.S. government may shutdown. It is possible that a last-minute agreement could avoid a shutdown. Following is an abbreviated summary of the federal funding process, the current situation in Congress, and the potential consequences of a failure to fund government operations.

Twelve appropriations bills

The federal fiscal year begins on October 1, and under normal procedures 12 appropriations bills for various government sectors should be passed by that date to fund activities ranging from defense and national park operations to food safety and salaries for federal employees.

These appropriations are considered discretionary spending, meaning that Congress has flexibility in setting the amounts. Although discretionary spending is an ongoing source of conflict, it accounted for only 27% of federal spending in FY 2023, and almost half of that was for defense, which is typically less of a point of conflict. Mandatory spending (including Social Security and Medicare), which is required by law, accounted for about 63%, and interest on the federal debt accounted for 10%.1

It is obvious that it would be helpful for federal agencies to know their operating budgets in advance of the fiscal year, but all 12 appropriations bills have not been passed before October 1 since FY 1997. In 11 of the last 13 years, lawmakers have not passed a single spending bill in time.2 That is the situation as of September 27 this year. (One bill, to fund military construction and the Department of Veterans Affairs, has been passed by the House but not the Senate.)3

Continuing resolutions and omnibus spending bills

To delay further budget negotiations, Congress typically passes a continuing resolution, which extends federal spending to a specific date, generally at or based on the same level as the previous year. These bills are essentially placeholders that keep the government open until full-year spending legislation is enacted. Since 1998, it has taken an average of almost four months after the beginning of the fiscal year for that year’s final spending bill to become law.4

Even with the extension provided by continuing resolutions, Congress seldom passes the 12 appropriations bills. Instead, they are often combined into massive omnibus spending bills that may include other provisions that do not affect funding. For example, the SECURE 2.0 Act, which fundamentally changed the retirement savings rules, was included in the omnibus spending bill for FY 2023, passed in late December 2023, almost three months into the fiscal year.

Current Congressional situation

The U.S. Constitution gives the House of Representatives sole power to initiate revenue bills, so the House typically passes funding legislation and sends it to the Senate. There are often conflicts between the two bodies, especially when they are controlled by different parties, as they are now. These conflicts are typically settled through negotiations after a continuing resolution extends the budget process.

The Senate acted first this year, releasing bipartisan legislation on September 26 that would maintain current funding through November 17 and provide additional funding for disaster relief and the war in Ukraine. Although this is likely to pass the Senate later in the week, it was unclear how the House would react to the legislation.5

Late on September 26, the House cleared four appropriation bills for debate (Agriculture, Defense, Homeland Security, and State Department). It is unknown whether these bills will pass the House, and if they do, it will be too late to negotiate the provisions with the Senate. A proposed continuing resolution that would extend government funding and include new provisions for border security had not been cleared for debate as of the afternoon of September 27.6

Effects of a shutdown

The effects of a government shutdown depend on its length, and fortunately, most are short. There have been 20 shutdowns since the current budget process began in the mid-1970s, with an average length of eight days. The longest by far was the most recent shutdown, which lasted 35 days in December 2018 and January 2019, and demonstrates some potential consequences of an extended closure.7 However, in 2018-19, five of the 12 spending bills had already passed before the shutdown — including large agencies like Defense, Education, and Health & Human Services — which helped limit the damage. The current impasse, with no appropriations passed, could lead to an even more painful situation.8

Some things will not be affected: The mail will be delivered. Social Security checks will be mailed. Interest on U.S. Treasury bonds will be paid.9 However, some programs will stop immediately, including the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children, which helps to provide food for about 7 million low-income mothers and children.10

Federal workers will not be paid. Workers considered “essential” will be required to work without pay, while others will be furloughed. Lost wages will be reimbursed after funding is approved, but this does not help lower-paid employees who may be living paycheck to paycheck.11 In an extended shutdown, the greatest hardship would fall on lower-paid essential workers, which would include many military families. Furloughed workers would struggle as well, but they might look for other jobs, and in many states would be able to apply for unemployment benefits.12 (Members of Congress, who are paid out of a permanent appropriation that does need renewal, would continue to be paid.)13

Air travel could be affected. In 2019, absenteeism more than tripled among Transportation Security Administration (TSA) workers, resulting in long lines, delays, and gate closures at some airports. According to the TSA,  many workers took time off for financial reasons.14 Air traffic controllers, who are better paid, remained on the job without pay and without normal support staff. However, on January 25, 2019, an increase in absences by controllers temporarily shut down New York’s La Guardia airport and led to substantial delays at airports in Newark, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. This may have been an impetus to reopen the government later that day.15

Unlike federal employees, workers for government contractors are not guaranteed to be paid, and contractors often work side-by-side with federal employees in government agencies. In 2019, it was estimated that 1.2 million contract employees faced lost or delayed revenue of more than $200 million per day.16 A more widespread shutdown would put even more workers at risk.

While essential workers will maintain some federal services, furloughed workers would leave significant gaps. At this time, it’s unknown exactly how each agency will respond to a shutdown. In 2019, some national parks used alternate funding to maintain limited access, which caused problems with trash and vandalism and was deemed illegal by the Government Accounting Office. This year, all parks might be closed during an extended shutdown.17 Many other federal services may be delayed or suspended, ranging from food inspections to small business loans and economic reports.18 Delays in economic statistics could make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to judge appropriate policy.19

Although a shutdown would cause temporary hardship for workers and the citizens they serve, the long-term effect on the economy would be relatively benign, because lost payments are generally made up after spending is authorized. A shutdown might decrease gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2023, but if the shutdown ends by the end of the year, GDP for the first quarter of 2024 would theoretically be increased. Even if delayed spending is recovered, however, lost productivity by furloughed workers will not be regained. And an extended shutdown could harm consumer and investor sentiment.20

Surprisingly, previous shutdowns generally have not hurt the broad stock market, other than short-term reactions. But the current market situation is delicate to begin with, and it is impossible to predict future market direction.21

For now, it’s wise to maintain a steady course in your own finances. In the event of a shutdown, be sure to check the status of federal agencies and services that may affect you directly.

All investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities fluctuates with market conditions. If not held to maturity, they could be worth more or less than the original amount paid. Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.

1) Congressional Budget Office, May 2023

2, 4, 8) Pew Research Center, September 13, 2023

3)  Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, September 27, 2023

5, 6, 9, 18, 19) The Wall Street Journal, September 26, 2023

7, 11)  CNN, September 21, 2023

10) MarketWatch, September 26, 2023

12) afge.org, September 25, 2023 (American Federation of Government Employees)

13) CBS News, September 25, 2023

14) Associated Press, January 21, 2019

15) The Washington Post, January 25, 2019

16) Bloomberg, January 17, 2019

17) Bloomberg Government, September 12, 2023

20) Congressional Research Service, September 22, 2023

21) USA Today, September 26, 2023

Congress Tells Treasury to Expect SECURE 2.0 Technical Fixes

Congress sent a letter to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel late in May,   that it will introduce legislation to correct several technical errors in the SECURE 2.0 Act. The letter, signed by Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Mike Crapo (R-ID), chair and ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, respectively, and Representatives Jason Smith (R-MO) and Richard Neal (D-MA), chair and ranking member of the House Ways and Means Committee, respectively, describes four provisions in SECURE 2.0 with problematic language.

1. Startup tax credit for small employers adopting new retirement plans.
2. Change in the required minimum distribution (RMD) age from 73 to 75.
3. SIMPLE IRA and SEP plan Roth Accounts
4. Requirement that catch-up contributions be made on  a Roth basis for high earners.

Startup tax credits for small employers

Section 102 of SECURE 2.0 provides for two tax-credit enhancements for small businesses who adopt new retirement plans, beginning in 2023.

First, for employers with 50 employees or fewer, the pension plan startup tax credit increases from 50% of qualified startup costs to 100%, with a maximum allowable credit of $5,000 per year for the first three years the plan is in effect.

Second, the Act offers a new tax credit for employer contributions to employee accounts for the first five tax years of the plan’s existence. The amount of the credit is a maximum of $1,000 for each participant earning not more than $100,000 in income (adjusted for inflation). Each year, a specific percentage applies, decreasing from 100% to 25%. The credit is reduced for employers with 51 to 100 employees; no credit is available for those with more than 100 employees.

The letter notes, “The provision could be read to subject the additional credit for employer contributions to the dollar limit that otherwise applies to the startup credit. However, Congress intended the new credit for employer contributions to be in addition to the startup credit otherwise available to the employer.”

Change in RMD age.

Numerous comments noted that a technical correction is needed for Section 107 of the Act, which raised the RMD age from 72 to 73 beginning this year, and then again to 75 in 2033. The intention was to increase the age to 73 for those who reach age 72 after December 31, 2022, and to 75 for those who reach age 73 after December 31, 2032. However, the provision could be misinterpreted to mean the age-75 rule applies to those who reach age 74 after December 31, 2032.

SIMPLE IRA and SEP Roth accounts

Section 601 of the Act permits SIMPLE IRAs and Simplified Employee Pension plans to include a Roth IRA. The provision could have been interpreted that the provision was meant  that SEP and SIMPLE IRA contributions must be included when determining annual Roth IRA contribution limits. As the letter explains, “Congress intended that no contributions to a SIMPLE IRA or SEP plan (including Roth contributions) be taken into account for purposes of the otherwise applicable Roth IRA contribution limit.”

Roth catch-up contributions for high earners

Addressing what the American Retirement Association called a “significant technical error” in Section 603, the letter clarified a rule surrounding catch-up contributions for high earners. Specifically, the rule’s intent was to require catch-up contributions for those earning more than $145,000 to be made on an after-tax, Roth basis beginning in 2024; however, language in a “conforming change” detailed in the provision could be interpreted to effectively eliminate the ability for all participants to make any catch-up contributions.

The congresspeople’s letter clarified that, “Congress did not intend to disallow catch-up contributions nor to modify how the catch-up contribution rules apply to employees who participate in plans of unrelated employers. Rather, Congress’s intent was to require catch-up contributions for participants whose wages from the employer sponsoring the plan exceeded $145,000 for the preceding year to be made on a Roth basis and to permit other participants to make catch-up contributions on either a pre-tax or Roth basis.”

No time frame given.

Although the letter provided no specific period for introducing the corrective legislation, it did indicate that such legislation may also include additional items. Stay tuned.