Are we in a Recession?
A common definition is that a recession occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of declining in gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP is the total of all the goods and services produced in a country. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determines when the United States (U.S.) is in a recession. It is a private nonpartisan organization that began dating business cycles in 1929. The committee, which was formed in 1978, includes eight economists who specialize in macroeconomic and business cycle research.1 The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” The committee looks at the big picture and makes exceptions as appropriate. For example, the economic decline of March and April 2020 was so extreme that it was declared a recession even though it lasted only two months.2
The committee studies a range of monthly economic data, with special emphasis on six indicators: personal income, consumer spending, wholesale-retail sales, industrial production, and two measures of employment. Because official data is typically reported with a delay of a month or two — and patterns may be clear only in hindsight — it generally takes some time before the committee can identify a peak or trough. Some short recessions (including the 2020 downturn) were over by the time they were officially announced.3
Public Opinion
Consumer sentiment is a significant factor. It is a powerful factor in consumer spending. Consumer spending is a substantial part of GDP. An early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.4 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon.5
GDP
Real (inflation-adjusted) GDP dropped at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022 and by 0.9% in the second quarter.6
Since 1948, the U.S. economy has never experienced two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth without a recession being declared. However, the current situation could be an exception, due to the strong employment market and some anomalies in the GDP data.7
Negative first-quarter GDP was largely due to a record U.S. trade deficit, as businesses and consumers bought more imported goods to satisfy demand. This was a sign of economic strength rather than weakness. Consumer spending and business investment — the two most important components of GDP — both increased for the quarter.8
Initial second-quarter GDP data showed a strong positive trade balance but slower growth in consumer spending, with an increase in spending on services and a decrease in spending on goods. The biggest negative factors were a slowdown in residential construction and a substantial cutback in growth of business inventories.9 Although inventory reductions can precede a recession, it’s too early to tell whether they signal trouble or are simply a return to more appropriate levels.10 Economists may not know whether the economy is contracting until there is additional monthly data.7
Employment
Economic data has been mixed recently. Consumer spending declined in May when adjusted for inflation, but bounced back in June.11 Retail sales were strong in June, but manufacturing output dropped for a second month.12 The strongest and most consistent data has been employment. The economy added 372,000 jobs in June, the third consecutive month of gains in that range. Total nonfarm employment is now just 0.3% below the pre-pandemic level, and private-sector employment is actually higher (offset by losses in government employment).13
The unemployment rate has been 3.6% for four straight months, essentially the same as before the pandemic (3.5%), which was the lowest rate since 1969.9 Initial unemployment claims ticked up slightly in mid-July but remained near historic lows.14 In the 12 recessions since World War II, the unemployment rate has always risen, with a median increase of 3.5 percentage points.16
With employment at such high levels, it may be questionable to characterize the current economic situation as a recession. However, the employment market could change, and recessions can be driven by fear as well as by fundamental economic weakness.
Inflation
The fear factor is inflation which ran at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, the highest since 1981.17 Wages have increased, but not enough to make up for the erosion of spending power, making many consumers more cautious despite the strong job market.18 If consumer spending slows significantly, a recession is certainly possible, even if it is not already under way. Inflation has forced the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively, with a 0.50% increase in the benchmark federal funds rate in May, followed by 0.75% increases in June and July.18 It takes time for the effect of higher rates to filter through the economy, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a “soft landing” or a more jarring stop that throws the economy into a recession.
Among the factors driving inflation are: Covid-19, Russian Invasion of Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, CARES ACTs 1, 2 and 3, fewer homes for sale than buyers, limited supply of semiconductors .
Unfortunately, no one knows the future, and economic forecasts vary significantly. Forecast range from remote chance of a recession to an imminent downturn with a moderate recession in 2023.19 If that turns out to be the case, or if a recession arrives sooner, it’s important to remember that recessions are generally short-lived, lasting an average of just 10 months since World War II. By contrast, economic expansions have lasted 64 months.20 To put it simply: The good times typically last longer than the bad.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not happen.
1-3) National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021
4) Investor’s Business Daily, July 12, 2022
5) The Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2022
6) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
7-8) MarketWatch, July 5, 2022
6,9,11,21) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
10) The Wall Street Journal, July 28, 2022
12) Reuters, July 15, 2022
13–14, 17–18) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
15) The Wall Street Journal, July 14, 2022
16) The Wall Street Journal, July 4, 2022
19) Federal Reserve, 2022
20) The New York Times, July 1, 2022
Increased Standard Mileage Rates for July 1 through December 31, 2022
IRS , in response to the increased price of gas, increased optional standard mileage rates for the last half of 2022. The rates are used for computing the deduction for automobiles used for business, medical, and moving expense. The rate did not change for calculating the deduction for use of an automobile for charitable purposes as the rate is set by statute which did not change.
The change applies for the second half of 2022 are:
Business use of auto: 62.5 cents per mile (up from 58.5 cents for January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022) may be deducted if an auto is used for business purposes. If you are an employee, your employer can reimburse you for your business travel expenses using the standard mileage rate. However, if you are an employee and your employer does not reimburse you for your business travel expenses, you cannot currently deduct your unreimbursed travel expenses as miscellaneous itemized deductions.
Charitable use of auto: 14 cents per mile (the same as for January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022) may be deducted if an auto is used to provide services to a charitable organization if you itemize deductions on your income tax return. Your charitable deduction may be limited to certain percentages of your adjusted gross income, depending on the type of charity.
Medical use of auto: 22 cents per mile (up from 18 cents for January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022) may be deducted if an auto is used to obtain medical care (or for other deductible medical reasons) if you itemize deductions on your income tax return. You can deduct only the part of your medical and dental expenses that exceeds 7.5% of the amount of your adjusted gross income.
Moving expense: 22 cents per mile (up from 18 cents for January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2022) may be deducted if an auto is used by a member of the Armed Forces on active duty to move, pursuant to a military order, to a permanent change of station (unless such expenses are reimbursed). The deduction for moving expenses is not currently available for other taxpayers.
The IRS normally updates the standard mileage rates once a year in the fall for the next calendar year. Mid-year increases in the standard mileage rates are rare — the last time the IRS made such an increase was in 2011.
IRS Announcement 2022-13
Roth Conversions are getting a lot of attention
Some consider the drop in the markets maybe a good time for some to consider converting traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs. The withdrawal of the assets from the traditional IRA would be taxed currently. The resulting tax would be lower as the value of the investment would be lower. The future growth of the assets would not be taxable in the Roth or to the beneficiaries of the Roth. There are many assumptions and conditions to achieve the desired benefits.
Tax rate assumptions
One assumption is that you will be in a lower tax bracket when you retire. A related assumption is that the tax laws will not change when the funds are distributed from the Roth. One approach would be to calculate your tax based on various assumptions. Depending on your current tax bracket and assumed future tax brackets to see how much to convert now.
Future values
There is a risk that the value of the investment will not grow or will drop in value.
Two five-year tests
To qualify for tax-free and penalty-free withdrawal of earnings, including earnings on converted amounts, a Roth account must meet a five-year holding period beginning January 1 of the year your first Roth account was opened, and the withdrawal must take place after age 59½ or meet an IRS exception. If you have had a Roth IRA for some time, this may not be an issue, but it could come into play if you open your first Roth IRA for the conversion.
Assets converted to a Roth IRA can be withdrawn free of ordinary income tax at any time, because you paid taxes at the time of the conversion. However, a 10% penalty may apply if you withdraw the assets before the end of a different five-year period, which begins January 1 of the year of each conversion, unless you are age 59½ or another exception applies.
Roth account are not subject to Required Minimum Distributions (RMD)
Roth IRAs are not required to minimum distributions. Distributions are tax-free to the original owner of the Roth IRA and spouse beneficiaries who treat a Roth IRA as their own. Other beneficiaries inheriting a Roth IRA are subject to the RMD rules. The longer your investments can pursue growth, the more advantageous it may be for you and your beneficiaries to have tax-free income.
There are many considerations and assumption in determining if a Roth Conversion is appropriate for anyone. The above is not intended as a complete discussion of the subject. A trusted advisor should be consulted to see if a conversion should be considered .
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful.
Good and Bad News about Social Security
With approximately 94% of American workers covered by Social Security and 65 million people currently receiving benefits, keeping Social Security healthy is a major concern.1 Social Security is financed primarily through payroll taxes. Unless Congress act benefits may eventually be reduced. Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds release a detailed report to Congress in June. The good news was that the effects of the pandemic were not as significant as projected a year ago.
Mixed news for Social Security
Social Security program consists of two programs, the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program and Disability Insurance (OASDI). Each program has its own financial account (Trust Fund). Payroll taxes collected are deposited in the applicable Trust Fund. OASI provide benefits to retired workers, their families, and survivors of workers. D provides benefits to disabled workers and their families. Funding is also provided by other income (reimbursements from the General Fund of the U.S. Treasury and income tax revenue from benefit taxation).
Social security is required to invest funds collected in special government-guaranteed Treasury bonds that earn interest. These funds are now being used to pay benefits more than the payroll tax collected. Payroll taxes are not sufficient to pay current benefits. Changes in our demographics are a significant reason for the deficiency.
A recent report by the Trustees estimate that the funds will not be able to fund full retirement and survivor benefits. Benefit would then be reduced to 77% of scheduled OASI benefits, declining to 72% through 2096, the end of the 75-year, long-range projection period.
The Trustees report, estimate the combined reserves (OASDI) will be able to pay scheduled benefits until 2035. Benefit would then be reduced to 80% of scheduled benefits, declining to 74% by 2096. OASI and DI Trust Funds are separate, and generally one program’s taxes and reserves cannot be used to fund the other program. However, this could be changed by Congress, and combining these trust funds in the report is a way to illustrate the financial outlook for Social Security as a whole.
The above is based on current conditions and likely future demographic, economic, and program-specific conditions. Future events including the impact of the pandemic may results in changes not reflected in the Trustee’s estimates.
Some changes can be made to improve the situation
The Trustees continue to urge Congress to address the financial challenges. The sooner Congress acts the less harsh the changes will be. Some of the options that have been suggested including the following:
- Raising the current Social Security payroll tax rate. Increasing the payroll tax to 15.64% from 12.4% would correct the situation
- Raising or eliminating the ceiling on wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes ($147,000 in 2022).
- Raising the full retirement age from 67 (for anyone born in 1960 or later).
- Raising the early retirement age from 62.
- Reducing future benefits by about 20.3% for all current and future beneficiaries, or by about 24.1% if reductions were applied only to those who initially become eligible in 2022 or later.
- Changing the benefit formula that is used to calculate benefits.
- Calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for benefits.
A comprehensive list of potential solutions can be found at https://www.ssa.gov/OACT/solvency/provisions/.
1) Social Security Administration, 2022
Turmoil and the Bear Market
Where we go from here is unknown. There have been many times the stock market and the economy have recovered from worse. The following is intended to be a general discussion. How to proceed will depend on each person’s circumstances (it depends). There are numerous technical issues not included in this discussion.
During the intensely volatile first 100 trading days of 2022, the Stocks of companies in the S&P 500 index delivered their worst performance since 1970 .1 The S&P 500 continued to tumble, and the benchmark index descended into a bear market — typically defined as a sustained drop in stock prices of at least 20% — on June 13, 2022. When the market closed, the S&P 500 had dropped 21.8% from its January 3 peak, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ, already in bear territory, had plunged 32.7% from its November 19, 2021 peak.2
Some investors who are nervous about the future and their portfolios seem to have taken a defensive stance by selling riskier assets, including investments in growth-oriented technology stocks.
What’s causing market volatility?
Throughout 2021, U.S. businesses dealt with unpredictable demand shifts and supply shocks related to the pandemic, but near-zero interest rates and trillions of dollars in pandemic relief supported consumer spending, boosted economic growth, and drove record corporate profits. Companies in the S&P 500 posted profits in 2021 that were 70% higher than in 2020 and 33% higher than in 2019, which helped fuel a stock market total return of nearly 29%.3-4
But in the first months of 2022, investors began to worry that the anticipated tightening of monetary policies by the Federal Reserve — intended to cool off stubbornly high inflation — would stifle economic growth and cause a recession. Prices began rising in the spring of 2021 due to high demand, supply-chain issues, and a labor shortage that pushed up wages. Inflation picked up speed in the first quarter of 2022 when China’s COVID-19 lockdowns impacted the supply of goods, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent already high global food and fuel prices through the roof. In May 2022, the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 8.6%, a 40-year high.5
The relentless acceleration of price increases puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which meets on June 15 and 16, to act aggressively to tame inflation. At the beginning of May, the FOMC raised the benchmark federal funds rate by 0.5% (to a range of 0.75%–1.00%). This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and Fed projections suggest there will be more to come.6
Rising interest rates push bond yields upward, and the opportunity for higher returns from lower-risk bond investments makes higher-risk stock investments less attractive. Moreover, stock investors are buying a portion of a company’s future cash flows, which become less valuable in an inflationary environment. Higher borrowing costs can also crimp consumers’ spending power and cut into the profits of companies that rely on debt.
The problem with one sector dominating the market
Stocks tracked by the S&P Information Technology Sector Index, which fell 29.2% from a January 3 high, have been hit harder than the S&P 500. Plus, like many benchmark indexes, the S&P 500 is weighted by market capitalization (the value of a company’s outstanding shares). This gives the largest companies, most of which are in the tech sector, an outsized role in index performance. As of May 31, the information technology sector still accounted for 27.1% of the market cap of the S&P 500, compared with weightings of 14.4% for health care and 11.2% for financials, the next-largest sectors. Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, respectively, are the four most-valuable companies in the index; Nvidia is ranked ninth and Meta has fallen to number 11.7
For the past several years, tech stock gains drove the market to new heights, but when their share values began to plunge, they dragged the broader stock indexes down with them. A Wall Street Journal analysis of market data through May 17 found that just eight of the largest U.S. companies — the six previously mentioned, plus Netflix and Tesla (in the consumer discretionary sector) — were responsible for an astounding 46% of the S&P 500’s 2022 losses (on a total return basis).8
These well-known technology companies have grown into massive multinational businesses that have a major influence on everyday life. Some dominate their respective business spaces — social media, smartphones, online search and advertising, e-commerce, and cloud computing — enough to spark antitrust investigations and calls for stricter regulations in the United States and abroad. They also have plenty of cash on hand, which means they may be in better shape to withstand an economic slowdown than their smaller competitors.9
Takeaways
Spreading investments among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 is a common way to diversify stock holdings. But over time, a stock portfolio that was once diversified can become overconcentrated in a sector that has outperformed the broader market. Tech-sector stocks notched huge total returns of about 50% in 2019, 44% in 2020, and 35% in 2021, so you may want to look closely at the composition of your portfolio and consider rebalancing if you find yourself overexposed to this highly volatile sector. (Rebalancing involves selling some investments to buy others. Keep in mind that selling investments in a taxable account could result in a tax liability.) 10
If you feel shell-shocked after more than five months of market turbulence, try to regain some perspective. Some market analysts view recent price declines as a painful but long overdue repricing of stocks with valuations that had grown excessive, as well as a reality check brought on by waning growth expectations. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of companies in the S&P 500 has fallen from 23.3 at the end of 2021 to 17.8 in May 2022, much closer to the 10-year average of 16.9.11-12
It could be a while before investors can better assess how the economy and corporate profits will ultimately fare against fast-rising inflation and higher borrowing costs — and the stock market is no fan of uncertainty. Disappointing economic data and company earnings reports could continue to spark volatility in the coming months.
It may not be easy to take troubling headlines in stride, but if you have a sufficiently diversified, all-weather investment strategy, sticking to it is often the wisest course of action. If you panic and flee the market during a downturn, you won’t be able to benefit from upward swings on its better days. And if you continue investing regularly for a long-term goal such as retirement, a down market may be an opportunity to buy more shares at lower prices.
The return and principal value of stocks fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investments seeking a higher return tend to involve greater risk. Diversification is a method used to help manage risk. It does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged group of securities that is considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary. Dollar-cost averaging does not ensure a profit or prevent a loss. Such plans involve continuous investments in securities regardless of fluctuating prices. You should consider your financial ability to continue making purchases during periods of low and high price levels. However, this can be an effective way for investors to accumulate shares to help meet long-term goals.
1) SIFMA, 2022
2) Yahoo! Finance, 2022
3) The New York Times, May 31, 2022
4, 7, 10-11) S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2022
5) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
6) Federal Reserve, 2022
8) The Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2022
9) The New York Times, May 20, 2022
12) FactSet, 2022
For the past several years, tech stock gains drove the market to new heights, but when their share values began to plunge, they dragged the broader stock indexes
IRS Releases 2023 Key Numbers for Health Savings Accounts
The IRS has released the 2023 contribution limits for health savings accounts (HSAs), as well as the 2023 minimum deductible and maximum out-of-pocket amounts for high-deductible health plans (HDHPs). An HSA is a tax-advantaged account that’s paired with an HDHP. An HSA offers several valuable tax benefits:
You may be able to make pre-tax contributions via payroll deduction through your employer, reducing your current income tax.
If you make contributions on your own using after-tax dollars, they’re deductible from your federal income tax (and perhaps from your state income tax) whether you itemize or not.
Contributions to your HSA, and any interest or earnings, grow tax deferred.
Contributions and any earnings you withdraw will be tax-free if used to pay qualified medical expenses.
Key tax numbers for 2022 and 2023.
Health Savings Accounts
Annual contribution limit 2022 2023
Self-only coverage $3,650 $3,850
Family coverage $7,300 $7,750
High-deductible health plan: self-only coverage 2022 2023
Annual deductible: minimum $1,400 $1,500
Annual out-of-pocket expenses required to be paid
(other than for premiums) can’t exceed $7,050 $7,500
High-deductible health plan: family coverage 2022 2023
Annual deductible: minimum $2,800 $3,000
Annual out-of-pocket expenses required to be paid (other than for premiums) can’t exceed
$14,100 $15,000
Catch-up contributions
Annual catch-up contribution limit for individuals age 55 or older $1,000 2022 and 2023
The IRS has released the 2023 key tax numbers for health savings accounts (HSAs) and high-deductible health plans (HDHPs).
Rising Rates Add to Housing Dilemmas
Home buyers braving the hot U.S. housing market have run headlong into a striking transition. The average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped from around 3.2% at the beginning of 2022 to 5.3% in mid-May, the highest level since 2009. This rise was sparked by the Federal Reserve’s commitment to raise the federal funds rate — a key benchmark for short-term interest rates — to help control the highest inflation in decades.1
Although mortgage rates are not directly tied to the federal funds rate, all borrowing costs are influenced by the Fed’s monetary policies. Mortgage rates tend to track changes in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in the funds rate and fluctuates based on the bond market’s longer-term expectations for economic growth and inflation.
Housing Costs Are Soaring
For nearly two years now, buyers have faced an intensely competitive housing market characterized by historically low inventory, bidding wars, and escalating prices. The national median price of existing homes rose 14.8% over the year ending April 2022 to reach $391,200. Home prices are rising in every region, and 70% of the nation’s 185 metro areas experienced double-digit annual increases in the first quarter. In a notable shift, price gains in affordable small- and mid-size cities outpaced gains in more expensive urban markets, as many home buyers seized the opportunity to work remotely.2
Home prices and market conditions can vary widely by region and even by neighborhood. April median prices in the 10 most expensive cities ranged from $662,000 in Denver to $1,875,000 in San Jose. Half of the nation’s 10 priciest markets are in California, a state with a particularly severe and longstanding housing shortage.3
Rents have also been rising. In April 2022, the median rent for 0- to 2-bedroom properties in the 50 largest U.S. metro areas reached $1,827, a year-over-year increase of 16.7%. Spikes were more dramatic in Sun Belt cities such as Miami (51.6%), San Diego (25.6%), and Austin (24.7%).4
In this environment, prospective home buyers, renters who must renew a lease, or anyone looking for a different place to live could find themselves in a challenging situation.
Affordability Is Waning
The combination of rising mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability. A borrower with a $300,000 mortgage would pay $1,666 per month at a 5.3% rate versus $1,297 at a 3.2% rate, the prevailing rate earlier this year. Affordability is an even bigger issue in high-cost areas and for first-time buyers who haven’t benefited from gains in home equity.
Borrowers who started a home search and were pre-qualified by a lender before rates spiked may not be approved for the mortgages they initially sought. Consequently, demand for adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that offer lower rates has surged in recent months.5 A lower monthly payment makes it possible to qualify for a larger mortgage, so borrowers who expect to move at some point may be comfortable with an ARM that has a fixed rate for the first three, five, seven, or 10 years of the 30-year term before it adjusts to prevailing rates.
Some buyers will change their expectations and settle for a less-expensive home. But others may give up the search if they are not satisfied with the homes they can afford, especially if they are priced out of their favorite neighborhoods. Many entry-level buyers could be forced out of the market entirely, at least for the time being.
Buyers of new homes may be subject to substantial interest-rate risk because purchase contracts are often signed many months before their homes will be completed. With their deposits at stake, buyers might consider paying the extra cost to extend rate locks for six, nine, or even 12 months.
Higher borrowing costs are likely to reduce demand for homes enough to slow price growth, and prices might retreat in some overheated markets. Even so, most economists don’t expect home prices to collapse because market fundamentals are otherwise relatively strong. Inventory levels are still extremely low, and lenders have generally been conservative, so most homeowners who bought in recent years can afford their mortgages.6 Interest rates don’t impact cash buyers, such as downsizing retirees and investors, who account for about 26% of transactions.7 And assuming the economy and employment hold up, there should be plenty of demand from millennials in their peak home buying years.8
Tips for Bewildered First-Time Buyers
Paying rent indefinitely may do little to improve your financial future, but if you are ready to commit to a mortgage, buying a home could stabilize your housing costs for as long as the payment is fixed. You can also build equity in the property as your loan balance is paid off over time — more so if the value appreciates.
No one knows for sure where mortgage rates are headed or what will happen next in the housing market. So how can you decide whether it makes financial sense to purchase a home? As always, the answer depends on where you want to live, your lifestyle preferences, and your finances.
Here are three ways to start preparing for the home buying process.
Become a better borrower. Before you apply for a mortgage, order a copy of your credit report to check for errors and clean up any inaccuracies. Having a higher credit score could earn you a lower interest rate.
Save up for a down payment. Buyers must typically invest 20% of the purchase price for conventional mortgages, but some loan programs allow smaller down payments of 5% to 10%. If parents or other family members offer to “gift” cash for a down payment, lenders may ask for a letter to document the source of funds. There may also be local programs that provide down-payment assistance for buyers who meet income requirements and take classes on home ownership.
Find out how much you can afford to spend. Start with online calculators that take your income, debt, and expenses into account. A mortgage provider can help determine how much you may qualify to borrow. It can take three to five years to recoup real estate transaction costs, so be sure to consider the stability of your employment situation and your income.
1) Bloomberg, May 12, and May 19, 2022
2-3, 7) National Association of Realtors, 2022
4) Realtor.com, 2022
5) The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2022
6) NPR, May 12, 2022
8) The Wall Street Journal, December 14, 2021
The Question is How Long High Inflation Will Last?
at an annual rate of 8.5% in March 2022. That is the highest level since December 1981.1 A Gallup poll at the end of March found that one out of six Americans considers inflation to be the most important problem facing the United States.2 The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the most common measure of inflation, rose
Many economists, including policymakers at the Federal Reserve, believed the increase would be transitory and subside over a period of months when inflation began rising in the spring of 2021. Inflation has proven to be more stubborn than expected. There are many reasons for the rising prices. The Fed has a plan to deal with the situation.
Russia and China contributed to the situation.
Among the cause of rising inflation are the growing pains of a rapidly opening economy, pent-up consumer demand, supply-chain slowdowns, and not enough workers to fill open jobs. Significant government stimulus and the Federal Reserve monetary policies helped prevent a deeper recession but contributed to an increase in inflation.
Russian invasion of Ukraine increased the already high global fuel and food prices.3 China’s response to the reappearance of COVID’s was strict lockdowns, which closed factories and increased already struggling supply chains for Chinese goods. The volume of cargo handled by the port of Shanghai, the world’s busiest port, dropped by an estimated 40% in early April.4
Behind the Headlines
8.5% year-over-year “headline” inflation in March was high. However, monthly numbers provide a clearer picture of the current trend. The month-over-month increase of 1.2% was extremely high, but more than half of it was due to gasoline prices, which rose 18.3% in March alone.5 Despite the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased seasonal demand, U.S. gas prices dropped in April, but the trend was moving upward by the end of the month.6 The federal government’s decision to release one million barrels of oil per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months and allow summer sales of higher-ethanol gasoline may help moderate prices.7
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.5% year-over-year in March, the highest rate since 1982. However, the month-over-month increase from February to March was just 0.3%, the slowest pace in six months. Another positive sign was the price of used cars and trucks, which rose more than 35% over the last 12 months (a prime driver of general inflation) but dropped 3.8% in March.8
Wages and Consumer Demand
For the 12 months ended in March, average hourly earnings increased 5.6%. This was not enough to keep up with inflation, although it was enough to dulled some of the effects. Lower-paid service workers received higher increases, with wages jumping by almost 15% for nonmanagement employees in the leisure and hospitality industry. Although inflation has cut deeply into wage gains over the last year, wages have increased at about the same rate as inflation over the two-year period of the pandemic.9
One of the big questions going forward is whether rising wages will enable consumers to continue to pay higher prices, which can lead to an inflationary spiral of ever-increasing wages and prices. Recent signals are mixed. The official measure of consumer spending increased 1.1% in March, but an early April poll found that two out of three Americans had cut back on spending due to inflation.10-11
Soft or Hard Landing?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve has laid out a plan to fight inflation by raising interest rates and tightening the money supply. After dropping the benchmark federal funds rate to near zero in order to stimulate the economy at the onset of the pandemic, the FOMC raised the rate by 0.25% at its March 2022 meeting and projected the equivalent of six more quarter-percent increases by the end of the year and three or four more in 2024.12 This would bring the rate to around 2.75%, just above what the FOMC considers a “neutral rate” that will neither stimulate nor restrain the economy.13
These moves were projected to bring the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, down to 4.3% by the end of 2022, 2.7% by the end of 2023, and 2.3% by the end of 2024.14 PCE inflation was 6.6% in March. this tends to run below CPI, so even if the Fed achieves these goals, CPI inflation will likely remain somewhat higher.15
Fed policymakers have signaled a willingness to be more aggressive, if necessary, and the FOMC raised the funds rate by 0.5% at its May meeting, as opposed to the more common 0.25% increase. This was the first half-percent increase since May 2000, and there may be more to come. The FOMC also began reducing the Fed’s bond holdings to tighten the money supply. New projections to be released in June will provide an updated picture of the Fed’s intentions for the federal funds rate.16
The question facing the FOMC is how fast it can raise interest rates and tighten the money supply while maintaining optimal employment and economic growth. The ideal is a “soft landing,” like what occurred in the 1990s, when inflation was tamed without damaging the economy. At the other extreme is the “hard landing” of the early 1980s, when the Fed raised the funds rate to almost 20% to control runaway double-digit inflation, throwing the economy into a recession.18
Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledges that a soft landing will be difficult to achieve, but he believes the strong job market may help the economy withstand aggressive monetary policies. Supply chains are expected to improve over time, and workers who have not yet returned to the labor force might fill open jobs without increasing wage and price pressures.19
The next few months will be a key period to reveal the future direction of inflation and monetary policy. The hope is that March represented the peak and inflation will begin to trend downward. But even if that proves to be true, it could be a painfully slow descent.
Projections are based on current conditions, are subject to change, and may not happen.
1, 5, 8-9) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022
2) Gallup, March 29, 2022
3, 7) The New York Times, April 12, 2022
4) CNBC, April 7, 2022
6) AAA, April 25 & 29, 2022
10, 15) U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2022
11) CBS News, April 11, 2022
12, 14, 16) Federal Reserve, 2022
13, 17) The Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2022
18) The New York Times, March 21, 2022
Required Distributions from Inherited Retirement Accounts Change after 2019
Changes were made to the Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) for inherited Retirement Accounts by The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019. The ability of beneficiaries to “stretch-out” the distribution of the account balance of an inherited defined contribution plan or an IRA were changed. After 2019 beneficiaries must distribute the full amount in the account within 10 years of the original owner’s death, with some exceptions. Where an exception applies, the entire account must generally be emptied within 10 years of the beneficiary’s death, or within 10 years after a minor child beneficiary reaches age 21.
IRS issued proposed regulations (generally applicable starting in 2022) that interpret the revised required minimum distribution (RMD) rules in February 2022. The new rules are complex and create uncertainty. Hopefully, the IRS will simplify and answer the questions. Account owners and their beneficiaries would benefit by familiarize themselves with these new interpretations and how they might be affected by them.
RMD BasicsOwners of traditional IRAs and participants of retirement plan like a 401(k) must start taking RMDs in the year they reach age 72 (age 70½ if you were born before July 1, 1949). An owner of the account may be able to wait until the year after retiring to start RMDs from that account at age 72 or older and still working for the employer that maintains the retirement plan. No RMDs are required from a Roth IRA during lifetime (beneficiaries are subject to inherited retirement account rules). Generally, a 50% penalty applies to the extent that RMDs are not timely distributed.
Changes were made to the Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) for inherited Retirement Accounts by The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019. The ability of beneficiaries to “stretch-out” the distribution of the account balance of an inherited defined contribution plan or an IRA were changed. After 2019 beneficiaries must distribute the full amount in the account within 10 years of the original owner’s death, with some exceptions. Where an exception applies, the entire account must generally be emptied within 10 years of the beneficiary’s death, or within 10 years after a minor child beneficiary reaches age 21.
IRS issued proposed regulations (generally applicable starting in 2022) that interpret the revised required minimum distribution (RMD) rules in February 2022. The new rules are complex and create uncertainty. Hopefully, the IRS will simplify and answer the questions. Account owners and their beneficiaries would benefit by familiarize themselves with these new interpretations and how they might be affected by them.
RMD Basics
Owners of traditional IRAs and participants of retirement plan like a 401(k) must start taking RMDs in the year they reach age 72 (age 70½ if you were born before July 1, 1949). An owner of the account may be able to wait until the year after retiring to start RMDs from that account at age 72 or older and still working for the employer that maintains the retirement plan. No RMDs are required from a Roth IRA during lifetime (beneficiaries are subject to inherited retirement account rules). Generally, a 50% penalty applies to the extent that RMDs are not timely distributed.
The required beginning date (RBD) for the first year must be taken by April 1 of the next year. After the first distribution, annual distributions must be taken by the end of each year. Note, if the first distribution is delayed until April 1 two distributions will be required for that year, one by April 1 and the other by December 31.
The RMD rules govern how quickly retirement plans and/or IRAs must be distributed by the beneficiaries of the accounts. The rules are largely based on two factors: (1) the individuals named as beneficiaries of the retirement plan, and (2) whether the owner dies before or on or after your RBD. Because no lifetime RMDs are required from a Roth IRA, Roth IRA owners are always treated as dying before their RBD.
Who Is Subject to the 10-Year Rule?
Eligible designated beneficiaries (EDBs) are permitted to stretch out distributions to a limited extent. EDB’s include your surviving spouse, your minor children, any individuals not more than 10 years younger than you, and certain disabled or chronically ill individuals. Generally, EDBs can take annual required distributions based on remaining life expectancy. However, once an EDB dies, or once a minor child EDB reaches age 21, any remaining funds must be distributed within 10 years.
Note that the SECURE Act requires that if a designated beneficiary is not an EDB, the entire account must be fully distributed within 10 years after your death.
What If the Designated Beneficiary Is Not an EDB?
If you die before your required beginning date, no distributions are required during the first nine years after your death, but the entire account must be distributed in the tenth year.
If you die on or after your required beginning date, annual distributions based on the designated beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy are required in the first nine years after the year of your death, then the remainder of the account must be distributed in the tenth year.
What If the Beneficiary Is a Nonspouse EDB?
Annual distributions will be required based on your remaining life expectancy. If death occurs before the required beginning date, required annual distributions will be based on the EDB’s remaining life expectancy. If the owner of the account dies on or after their required beginning date, annual distributions after the owner’s death will be based on the greater of (a) what would have been the owners remaining life expectancy or (b) the beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy. Also, if distributions are calculated each year based on what would have been the remaining life expectancy, the entire account must be distributed by the end of the calendar year in which the beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy would have been reduced to one or less (if the beneficiary’s remaining life expectancy had been used).
After the death of the beneficiary or if the beneficiary is a minor child turns age 21, annual distributions based on remaining life expectancy must continue during the first nine years after the year of such an event. The entire account must be fully distributed in the tenth year.
What If a Designated Beneficiary A Spouse?
There are many special rules if a spouse is a designated beneficiary. The 10-year rule generally has no effect until after the death of the surviving spouse, or possibly until after the death of the spouse’s designated beneficiary.
What Life Expectancy Is Used to Determine RMDs After Death?
Annual required distributions based on life expectancy are generally calculated each year by dividing the account balance as of December 31 of the previous year by the applicable denominator for the current year (but the RMD will never exceed the entire account balance on the date of the distribution).
When life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is the life expectancy in the calendar year of death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. When the nonspouse beneficiary’s life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is that beneficiary’s life expectancy in the year following the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. (Note that if the applicable denominator is reduced to zero in any year using this “subtract one” method, the entire account would need to be distributed.) And at the end of the appropriate 10-year period, any remaining balance must be distributed.
The rules relating to required minimum distributions are complicated, and the consequences of making a mistake can be severe. Talk to a tax professional to understand how the rules, and the new proposed regulations, apply to your individual situation.
Federal Student Loan Repayments Are Postponed Again
The U.S. Department of Education announced the sixth extension for federal student loan repayment, interest, and collections, through August 31, 2022.1 The prior postponement, the fifth, was to end April 30, 2022. The original extension was in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic.
Education Secretary Miguel Cardona stated: “This additional extension will allow borrowers to gain more financial security as the economy continues to improve and as the nation continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.2
A “fresh start”
The Department of Education noted that it will give all federal student loan borrowers a “fresh start” by allowing them to enter repayment in good standing, even those individuals whose loans have been delinquent or in default. More information about loan rehabilitation will be coming from the Department in the weeks ahead.
The Department’s press release stated: “During the extension, the Department will continue to assess the financial impacts of the pandemic on student loan borrowers and to prepare to transition borrowers smoothly back into repayment. This includes allowing all borrowers with paused loans to receive a ‘fresh start’ on repayment by eliminating the impact of delinquency and default and allowing them to reenter repayment in good standing.”3
What should borrowers do between now and September?
Approximately 41 million Americans have federal student loans.4 There are a number of things borrowers can do between now and September 2022.
• Seek to build up financial reserves during the next few months to be ready to start repayment in September.
• Continue making student loan payments during the pause (the full amount of the payment will be applied to principal). Interest doesn’t accrue during the pause. Borrowers who continue making payments during this time may be able to save money in the long term, because when the pause ends, interest will be accruing on a smaller principal balance.
• Apply for the federal Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program if they are working in public service and have not yet applied.
• Visit the federal student aid website, studentaid.gov, to learn more about PSLF and loan repayment options, including income-based options.
• Pay attention to the news. There has been increased political pressure on the current administration to enact some type of student loan cancellation, ranging from $10,000 per borrower to full cancellation. There are no guarantees, however. So, it wouldn’t be a good idea for borrowers to put all their eggs in this basket.
1-3) U.S. Department of Education, 2022
4) The Washington Post, April 6, 2022
