College Costs for 2024-2025 March Higher
Every year, the College Board releases new college cost data and trends in its annual report. The figures published are average costs for public in-state, public out-of-state, and private colleges based on a survey of approximately 4,000 colleges across the country.
Over the past 20 years, average costs for tuition, fees, housing, and food has increased 32% at public colleges and 27% at private colleges over and above increases in the Consumer Price Index, straining the budgets of many families and leading to widespread student debt.
Here are cost highlights for the 2024–2025 year. (“Total cost of attendance” includes direct billed costs for tuition, fees, housing, and food, plus indirect costs for books, transportation, and personal expenses.)
Public four-year: in-state
- Tuition and fees increased 2.7% to $11,610
- Housing and food increased 4.2% to $13,310
- Total cost of attendance: $29,910
Public four-year: out-of-state
- Tuition and fees increased 3.2% to $30,780
- Housing and food increased 4.2% to $13,310 (same as in-state)
- Total cost of attendance: $49,080
Private four-year
- Tuition and fees increased 3.9% to $43,350
- Housing and food increased 4.1% to $15,250
- Total cost of attendance: $62,990
Sticker price vs. net price
The College Board’s cost figures are based on published college sticker prices. But many families don’t pay the full sticker price. A net price calculator, available on every college website, can help families see what they might pay beyond a college’s sticker price. It can be a very useful tool for students who are currently researching and/or applying to colleges.
A net price calculator provides an estimate of how much grant aid a student might be eligible for at a particular college based on the student’s financial information and academic record, giving families an estimate of what their out-of-pocket cost — or net price — will be. The results aren’t a guarantee of grant aid, but they are meant to give as accurate a picture as possible.
Federal student loans: interest rates and legal challenges to SAVE Plan
To finance college, many families take out student loans to supplement their savings and income. Federal student loan interest rates for the 2024–2025 school year are the highest they’ve been in years: 6.53% for undergraduate Direct Loans (up from 5.50% the previous year), 8.08% for graduate Direct Loans (up from 7.05%), and 9.08% for graduate and parent Direct PLUS Loans (up from 8.05%).
Regarding loan repayment, federal student loan repayment resumed in October 2023 for millions of borrowers after almost three-and-a-half years of payment pauses due to the pandemic. Around the same time, the Department of Education launched a generous new income-driven repayment plan called Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE. The SAVE Plan included multiple new benefits for borrowers, including monthly payments capped at 5% of discretionary income for undergraduate loans and at 10% of discretionary income for graduate loans.
After the SAVE Plan was launched, it faced multiple legal challenges. In June 2024, two separate federal courts in Kansas and Missouri temporarily blocked key parts of SAVE. In response, the Department of Education placed all borrowers enrolled in SAVE into administrative forbearance, which meant borrowers weren’t required to make any payments and interest didn’t accrue. Then in August 2024, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit blocked SAVE in its entirety, saying the injunction would remain in place pending further order of the court or the U.S. Supreme Court. The result is that borrowers enrolled in SAVE will continue to be in limbo while the legal process plays out.
FAFSA delayed until December, again
Typically, the FAFSA (Free Application for Federal Student Aid) opens on October 1 for the upcoming school year. However, for the second year in a row, the FAFSA has been delayed. The 2025–2026 FAFSA will open in December 2024.
Last year, the Department of Education launched a new, shorter FAFSA that contained several changes, including:
- A new Student Aid Index (SAI) that replaces the Expected Family Contribution (EFC) terminology
- No reduced parent contribution for parents with multiple children in college at the same time
- No requirement to report cash support and other money paid on a student’s behalf on the FAFSA, for example a monetary gift from a relative or a distribution from a grandparent-owned 529 plan
A reminder that the 2025–2026 FAFSA will rely on income information from your 2023 federal tax return (sometimes referred to as the “prior-prior year” or the “base year”). However, the FAFSA will use asset information as of the date you submit the form.
Sources: College Board, Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2024; U.S. Department of Education, 2024
Zombie Debt: Is It Coming for You?
Zombie debt is old and often expired debt that could be revived after being purchased by a collection agency for pennies on the dollar — or less. These “debt scavengers” have plenty of incentive to cast a wide net and take aggressive steps to collect even a small portion of the original debt.
If you are contacted by a debt collector, it could be for a debt you already repaid or don’t owe. For debts written off by creditors long ago, some records might be lost or unreliable. If you don’t remember crossing paths with the creditor, it’s possible that the debt in question belongs to someone else with a similar name or is the result of identity theft.
One example is a recent wave of zombie second mortgages threatening families with the loss of their homes. After the 2008 housing crash, many homeowners had their mortgages modified and presumed (or were told) that their second loans were forgiven. Now that home prices have risen around the nation, more investors who bought defaulted second mortgages are moving to collect those debts, even if it means foreclosing on the homes.1
Unfortunately, this is just one of the ways that zombie debt could come back to haunt you, and depending on the circumstances, you may or may not be responsible for paying it back.
More types of zombie debt
Time-barred debt. You may be contacted about a debt that is beyond the statute of limitations — the length of time during which you can legally be sued by a creditor or debt collector over an unpaid debt. These limits differ based on the type of debt and can vary widely by state, though they generally range from three to 10 years. When a debt is “time-barred,” a debt collector may still try to convince you to repay it voluntarily.
Discharged debt. This refers to debt that has been legitimately wiped out through a bankruptcy case.
Settled debt. A lower payoff on non-secured debt (such as medical or credit-card debt) might have been negotiated with the creditor in exchange for forgiveness of the remaining balance.
Beware of scare tactics
Debt collectors are not allowed to use abusive language, constant harassment, or deception to intimidate you into repaying a debt that is beyond the statute of limitations or is not actually yours — but it’s been known to happen. They might threaten to sue, even if it’s illegal to do so, then offer to leave you alone if you make a partial payment.
Don’t get tricked. In some states, making one small payment on an expired debt can reset the statute of limitations and bring it back to life. The collector could then legally pursue the entire amount. Repaying part of a debt that was never yours could be interpreted as admitting it does belong to you.
Tips for fighting off debt scavengers
How should you respond if you are contacted about a zombie debt? Don’t panic, and don’t immediately make a payment or provide any personal information. On the other hand, it might not be wise to assume it’s a scam and ignore calls or letters from a collection agency.
Start by asking for a debt validation letter, which should include information about the original creditor, the amount of the debt, and when it was incurred. Don’t say anything to a debt collector until you have a chance to research the details, verify the debt is really yours, and determine whether it falls within the statute of limitations.
If you confirm that the debt is a mistake, has already been paid, or is expired, send a letter disputing the debt within 30 days (and keep a copy for your records). If it shows up as delinquency on your credit report, you can also file a dispute with the credit agency. You are entitled to a free copy of your credit report weekly from each of the three nationwide credit agencies: Experian, TransUnion, and Equifax. Visit www.annualcreditreport.com for more information.
Sometimes a zombie debt results from a long-forgotten charge and/or a bill left behind unknowingly when moving from one place to another. If you discover that you do owe the debt and have the money, resolving the unpaid account could help protect your credit. If you can’t pay the entire amount right away, you may be able to negotiate a payment agreement.
Receiving a collection notice for a home mortgage could be a more serious and costly threat. If you are contacted by an unfamiliar lender demanding money for a second mortgage, check the title report for any encumbrances or liens attached to your property. If you find one, consider consulting an attorney to help negotiate with the lienholder or challenge the debt in court, depending on your personal situation.
1) NPR.com, May 18, 2024
Medicare Open Enrollment Kicks Off
Medicare’s Open Enrollment period began on October 15 and runs through December 7. If you are covered by Medicare, it’s time to compare your current coverage with other available options. Medicare plans can change every year, and you may want to switch to a health or prescription drug plan that better suits your needs or your budget.
During this period, you can:
- Switch from Original Medicare to a Medicare Advantage Plan, and vice versa
- Change from one Medicare Advantage Plan to a different Medicare Advantage Plan
- Change from a Medicare Advantage Plan that offers prescription drug coverage to a Medicare Advantage Plan that doesn’t offer prescription drug coverage, and vice versa
- Join a Medicare Part D drug plan, switch from one Part D plan to another, or drop your Part D coverage
Any changes made during Open Enrollment are effective as of January 1, 2025.
Original Medicare (Part A) hospital insurance and (Part B) medical insurance) is administered directly by the federal government and includes standardized premiums, deductibles, copays, and coinsurance costs.
A Medicare Advantage (Part C) Plan is an alternative to Original Medicare. Medicare Advantage Plans cover all Original Medicare services and often include prescription drug coverage and extra benefits. They are offered by private companies approved by Medicare. Premiums, deductibles, copays, and coinsurance costs vary by plan.
Medicare (Part D) drug plans, like Medicare Advantage Plans, are offered by private companies and help cover prescription drug costs.
Key changes for 2025
- Medicare Part D: As of January 1, all Medicare Part D plans will include an annual $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket on costs for prescription drugs covered by the plan. No copayment or coinsurance costs for Part D drugs will apply for the rest of the year. In addition, enrollees can opt in to a Medicare Prescription Payment Plan to pay their out-of-pocket prescription drug costs monthly rather than all at once at the pharmacy.
- Medicare Advantage: During the summer, Medicare Advantage Plans will send out a mid-year statement to enrollees that shows supplemental benefits available but unused and remind enrollees how to take advantage of them.
- Original Medicare: Starting in July, more caregivers of people with dementia who are not residing in a nursing home and are covered by Original Medicare may have access to a model program called Guiding an Improved Dementia Experience (GUIDE). This program, which initially rolled out in July 2024, provides a 24/7 support line, care coordination, referrals to community-based social services, caregiver training, and respite services. Although this program will be expanded in 2025, it won’t be available in all communities. Visit the CMS Innovation website at cms.gov to find out if a program is available in your area.
Compare your options
Start by reviewing any materials your plan has sent you. Look at the coverage offered, the costs, and the network of providers, which may be different than last year. Maybe your health has changed, or you anticipate needing medical care or new or pricier prescription drugs.
If your current plan doesn’t meet your healthcare needs or fit your budget, you can make changes. If you’re satisfied with what you currently have, you don’t have to do anything — your current coverage will continue.
If you’re interested in a Medicare Advantage Plan or a Medicare Part D drug plan, you can use the Medicare Plan Finder on medicare.gov to see which plans are available in your area and check their overall quality rating. For personalized information, you can log in or create an account to compare your plan to others and see prescription drug costs.
Get help
Determining what coverage you have now and comparing it to other Medicare plans can be confusing and complicated, but help is available. Call 1-800-MEDICARE or visit the Medicare website to use the Plan Finder and other tools that can make comparing plans easier. You can also call your State Health Insurance Assistance Program (SHIP) for free, personalized counseling. Visit shiphelp.org to find the phone number and website address for your state.
Can You Access Your Retirement Plan Money After a Disaster?
If you have been affected by Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, or another recent federally declared major disaster, you may be relieved to hear that over the past few years, it has become easier to access your work-based retirement plan and IRA money. Following is a summary of the rules for qualified disaster recovery distributions and disaster-related plan loans. For more information, please contact your retirement plan or IRA Administrator.
Penalty-free distributions
Since 2019, many work-based plan participants affected by disasters have had the option to take a hardship withdrawal from their plan accounts to help recover from qualified losses. Generally, hardship withdrawals are subject to a 10% early-distribution penalty for those younger than 59½, as well as ordinary income taxes.
In 2022, the SECURE 2.0 Act ushered in a new provision allowing retirement savers to take qualified disaster recovery distributions of up to $22,000 in total, penalty-free, from their retirement accounts. Plans include (but are not limited to) 401(k) plans, 403(b) plans, 457(b) plans, and — unlike hardship withdrawals — IRAs.
The distribution must be requested within 180 days of the disaster or declaration, whichever is later. Although ordinary income taxes still apply to qualified disaster recovery distributions, account holders may spread the income, and therefore the tax obligation, over three years.1
Moreover, account holders have the option of repaying the amount distributed, in whole or in part, to any eligible retirement plan within three years, thereby avoiding or reducing the tax hit.2 (Note that if a work-sponsored plan does not accept rollovers, it is not required to accept repayments.)
An individual is qualified for a disaster recovery distribution if their primary residence is in the disaster area and the individual has suffered a disaster-related economic loss. Examples of economic loss include:
- Loss, damage to, or destruction of real or personal property from fire, flooding, looting, vandalism, theft, or wind
- Loss related to displacement from the individual’s home
- Loss of livelihood due to temporary or permanent layoff
This is not a comprehensive list; other losses may also qualify.
Although work-based plans are not required to offer qualified disaster recovery distributions, an individual may treat a distribution as such on his or her tax returns. Qualified disaster recovery distributions are reported on Form 8915-F.
Plan loans
Rather than taking a distribution and having to report it as taxable income, work-based plan participants (but not IRA account owners) may also be able to borrow from their plan accounts.
Typically, plan loans are limited to (1) the greater of 50% of the participant’s vested account balance or $10,000, or (2) $50,000, whichever is less. In addition, loans generally need to be repaid within five years. However, with respect to a qualified disaster, employers may raise the loan limit to as much as the full amount of the participant’s balance or $100,000, whichever is less (minus the amount of any outstanding loans). Employers may also extend the period for any outstanding loan payments due in the 180 days following a disaster for up to one year; the overall repayment period will adjust accordingly.
Employers are not required to offer plan loans or modify plan provisions due to a disaster.
For more information on qualified disaster recovery distributions and disaster loans, please speak with your IRA or retirement plan administrator, and consider seeking the guidance of a qualified tax professional.
For more information about disaster assistance available from the IRS, please visit www.irs.gov/newsroom/tax-relief-in-disaster-situations.
For information specific to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, please visit www.usa.gov/disasters-and-emergencies.
For general information about disaster financial assistance available from the federal government, please visit www.usa.gov/disaster-financial-help.
1) Alternatively, an individual may elect to report the entire distribution in the year it is made.
2) Taxpayers may file an amended tax return for taxes previously paid on the distribution(s).
After a Massive Breach, Is Your Data in Danger?
National Public Data, a consumer data broker, confirmed last week that a hacker had targeted the company in December 2023, “with potential leaks of certain data in April 2024 and summer 2024.”1) Other reports indicate that this leaked data had been found on the dark web and could include the names, addresses, phone numbers, and Social Security numbers of millions of Americans. 2) A data breach of this magnitude is especially worrisome, and is the latest in a string of major data breaches this year. 3) Following are some steps to help protect yourself against the growing threat of identity theft.
Place fraud alerts and credit freezes
One way to reduce your risk after a data breach is to place a fraud alert or a credit freeze on your credit report. Both are free tools that can help you prevent fraud, but they work somewhat differently.
A fraud alert is a notice placed on your credit report that warns potential creditors that your identity has been compromised. It allows them to check your credit but requires them to take extra steps to verify your identity before issuing new credit in your name. You can place a fraud alert by contacting one of the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion), and that agency will notify the others. An initial alert will last for one year, but can be extended to seven years if you have become an actual, rather than potential, victim of fraud.
A credit freeze (sometimes called a security freeze) may also help protect you if you suspect your personal information was stolen, but it’s more stringent. Once you have a credit freeze in place, potential creditors won’t be able to access your credit report or credit score (there are some exemptions). This helps prevent identity thieves from opening fraudulent accounts in your name. To request a credit freeze, you will need to contact each of the three major credit reporting agencies. The credit freeze will stay in place until you decide to lift it, which you will need to do at least temporarily, before applying for credit.
A fraud alert or credit freeze can be set up online, by phone, or by mail, following each credit bureau’s instructions. This may also be a good time to request a free credit report so that you can check recent credit activity. Here are the website addresses and phone numbers for each of the three major credit bureaus.
- Equifax, at Equifax.com 888-298-0045
- Experian at Experian.com 888-397-3742
- TransUnion at Transunion.com 800-916-8800
Continue to monitor your personal and financial information
- Consider subscribing to a credit monitoring service if you need extended support. These services come at a cost, but may bundle together credit report monitoring, credit report locks, scans of the dark web, help with recovering from identity theft, and identity theft insurance.
- Periodically review your credit reports to spot suspicious activity. You can receive free weekly online reports from all three credit bureaus at the official site annualcreditreport,com.
- Sign up for alerts for your bank, financial, and credit card accounts that will notify you when a transaction has occurred, or someone has signed into your account. Check your accounts frequently and review your statements.
- Pick strong passwords that are different for each account, and change them periodically. For an extra layer of protection, use a password manager that generates strong, unique passwords that you control through a single master password.
- Enable multifactor authentication when offered. For example, in addition to providing a password, you may be required to enter a code sent to your phone or email, answer a security question, use a physical security key, or sign in using a facial or fingerprint scan.
- Keep your device and security software up to date. Operating system and software updates may include security fixes. An easy way to do this is to turn on automatic updates.
- Watch out for phishing attempts from scammers looking to obtain passwords or financial information. Be cautious if you receive a link or attachment in your email or via social media. Don’t click on it until you can verify that it’s legitimate. Let unsolicited phone calls go to voicemail, and double-check phone numbers, even if they appear familiar or seem to come from a company that you normally do business with.
1) National Public Data, August, 2024
2) KrebsonSecurity.com, August 15, 2024
3) Identity Theft Resource Center, 2024
New Consumer Protections for Weary Airline Passengers
Banks, hospitals, retailers, and airlines are still dealing with the fallout from the massive CrowdStrike IT outage in July. The tech meltdown impacted businesses across the globe, and airlines were hit particularly hard. This was not good news for the airline industry, which just last year had the highest number of flight delays ever recorded.1
The U.S. Department of Transportation determined that the delays and cancellations resulting from the CrowdStrike outage were “controllable,” or caused by the airline. As a result, most airlines were obligated to provide some sort of compensation and assistance to stranded travelers.2
Fortunately, there could be much-needed relief for airline passengers on the horizon, thanks to a new federal law and rules issued by the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Hassle-free refunds
In the past, airline passengers were forced to figure out how to obtain a refund by researching an airline’s website or waiting for hours on the phone with an airline’s customer service department. Airline passengers will be entitled to an automatic refund for:
- Cancelled or significantly delayed flights (e.g., departure or arrival times delayed by three hours or more for domestic flights and by six hours or more for international flights), regardless of the reason
- Significantly delayed baggage return
- Extra services (e.g., Wi-Fi, seat selection, or inflight entertainment) that were paid for but not provided
Airlines must issue refunds of the full amount of the ticket purchased within seven business days of refunds becoming due for credit card purchases and 20 days for other payment methods. Passengers who accept a ticket for a significantly delayed flight or are rebooked on a different flight to their destination will not receive refunds. The refunds must be in the form of cash or whatever original payment method was used to make the purchase (e.g., credit card or airline miles). Finally, airlines are not allowed to substitute for other forms of compensation (e.g., vouchers or travel credits) unless a passenger affirmatively chooses to accept an alternate form of compensation.
Protection against surprise fees
Many airlines advertise cheap “teaser” fares that don’t take into account additional fees — all of which can significantly increase the cost of a ticket. Airlines will be required to disclose various ancillary fees up front, such as charges for checked bags, carry-on bags, and changing or cancelling a reservation. They must also provide a detailed explanation of each fee before a ticket can be purchased. In addition, under a proposed rule airlines will be prohibited from charging families an extra fee to guarantee a child will sit next to a parent or adult travel companion.
When are these protections scheduled to take effect?
These consumer protections are scheduled to have different implementation periods over the next year. In addition, the rule on surprise fee disclosures was temporarily blocked by a U.S. Appeals Court last week. Visit the U.S. Department of Transportation’s website at transportation.gov/airconsumer for more information.
1-2) U.S. Department of Transportation, 2024
Tax Treatment of Work-Life Referral Services
The IRS has provided informal guidance on the federal income tax treatment to an employee of certain work-life referral services offered as an employee benefit.
What is a work-life referral program?
Employers often provide eligible employees with a work-life referral service as an employee benefit. Work-life referral services assist employees with identifying, contacting, and negotiating with life-management resources for solutions to a personal, work, or family challenge.
Work-life referral services might be offered in connection with, for example, the following:
- Identifying appropriate education, care, and medical service providers
- Choosing a child or dependent care program
- Navigating eligibility for government benefits, including Veterans Administration benefits
- Evaluating and using paid leave programs offered through an employer or a state or locality
- Locating home services professionals who specialize in adapting a home for a family member with special care needs
- Navigating the medical system, including private insurance and public programs, and utilizing available medical travel benefits
- Connecting the employee with local retirement and financial planning professionals
How are work-life referral services taxed?
A fringe benefit provided by an employer to an employee is presumed to be income to the employee unless specifically excluded from gross income under the Internal Revenue Code. One exception is for de minimis fringe benefits: a fringe benefit which, considering its value and the frequency with which it is provided, is so small that accounting for it would be unreasonable or administratively impracticable.
The IRS guidance notes that work-life referral programs may be available to a significant portion of an employer’s employees, but they are used infrequently by employees and only when an employee faces one of the challenges the programs are designed to address.
Accordingly, the IRS concluded that work-life referral services are excluded from gross income as a de minimis fringe benefit. Furthermore, these services are excluded from federal employment taxes, including FICA (Social Security and Medicare taxes), FUTA (federal unemployment tax), and federal income tax withholding.
Work-life referral services are often included in an employee assistance program (EAP) or otherwise bundled with other types of services offered by an employer. The IRS guidance provided here applies only to the work-life referral program itself; it does not address the tax treatment of direct or indirect payment for the life-management resources offered through an EAP or that may be bundled with a work-life referral program. Under the general rule, those other services would be presumed to be income to the employee unless specifically excluded from gross income under the Internal Revenue Code.
See FS-2024-13, April 2024
Real Estate Commission Changes August 17, 2024
In March 2024, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reached a landmark $418 million settlement after losing an antitrust lawsuit filed by a group of home sellers. As many as 50 million people who paid commissions on homes sold in recent years could receive a small amount from the class-action settlement. The powerful industry group also agreed to change long-standing practices related to sales commissions.1
Background
For decades, many real estate agents have had little choice but to join NAR and follow its rules regarding local Multiple Listing Services (MLS) — the databases used by most brokers to list information about properties for sale. Listing brokers typically cooperated with buyer’s agents and split the commission paid by the seller, with the amounts communicated via the MLS in fields that were only visible to agents.
Plaintiffs claimed that NAR (and brokers that require agents to be NAR members) conspired to artificially inflate commissions through an industry-wide practice requiring the seller to pay commissions to brokers on both sides of the transaction. They believed this helped to uphold a nationwide standard of five to six percent of the sales price, which is significantly higher than the commissions paid in many other countries.2
Practice changes
Effective August 17, 2024, NAR will implement the following new policies related to how real estate brokers are compensated to handle transactions.3
- Commission offers for buyer’s agents can no longer be required or appear in the MLS, though they are still permitted. Listing agents can advertise specific commission offers on brokerage websites and over the phone, text message, or email. Home sellers and their agents will negotiate directly with buyers and their agents regarding compensation.
- Prior to touring homes, buyers will have to discuss and set compensation directly with their own agents, as sellers do with listing agents. They will be asked to sign written representation agreements that outline the agents’ services (e.g., showing property, negotiating offers, transaction management) and how much they charge. This is to help ensure that buyers are fully aware of the costs they could be responsible for paying.
Implications for buyers and sellers
These changes are intended to allow more room for negotiation and spur competition, which could conceivably help lower costs for sellers. Commissions have always been baked into transaction prices, so in markets where sellers’ costs fall, home prices would likely be reduced as well.
Some economists believe commissions could drop as much as 30% if buyer’s agents face pressure from potential clients to discount their fees, but savings of this magnitude aren’t guaranteed.4 The impact on real estate commissions will ultimately depend on market conditions, which can vary greatly by location, and how sellers, buyers, and agents respond to the new practices.
Like other businesses, brokerages have overhead that includes rent, liability insurance, marketing, and other operating costs. Most individual agents must split sales commissions with their brokers (from about 60/40 up to 80/20 for the most productive agents), or they pay fees to the company.
A buyer’s agent sometimes shows property to clients over a period of days to months and may write numerous offers for deals that never come together. Many experienced buyer’s agents — long accustomed to receiving the same commission as the listing agent — may be reluctant to work for less, even if they must justify their value more regularly.
Buyers will determine the commission for their own agents, but the money may or may not come out of their own pockets. For example, it’s possible that an offer could be made contingent on the seller paying the buyer’s share of the commission or include a request for a general credit toward closing costs in the amount needed to pay the buyer’s agent. Current lending guidelines and regulations would prevent most buyers from adding commission costs to their mortgages. A rule pertaining to VA loans, which specifically prohibited borrowers from paying agent commissions, has been temporarily suspended.5
In some cases, sellers might agree to cover buyers’ commissions, as it has long been customary and could still be in their best interests. Nationwide home prices have risen more than 50% since 2019, and high interest rates have made mortgage payments much less affordable.6 This means sellers with equity tend to be in a better position to pay commissions than potential buyers, many of whom may struggle to produce enough cash for the down payment. For these reasons, a seller who’s willing to pay all or some of the buyer’s commission may receive more offers, and a higher purchase price, than one who refuses to do so.
Online sites have made it easier to shop for a home without using an agent, so more buyers might brave the market on their own if they think they can pocket the savings. Yet buying a home is the biggest financial transaction many people will make in their lifetimes, and the issues that come up during the process can be unexpected. There are many situations in which buyers could benefit from having their own representation, especially if they are inexperienced or unfamiliar with the local market.
First-time buyers in particular — who were responsible for 31% of existing home sales in May 2024 — may have more confidence and make more informed decisions if they work with a trusted professional.7 But many will need help from sellers to pay their agents’ fees, putting them at a bigger disadvantage than ever against buyers with more access to cash in competitive markets.
Negotiating commissions among all parties is likely to make it harder to strike deals in general, so buyers may have to search longer and write more offers before they are successful. It’s also possible that sellers will see slight change in commission costs in the coming months, while the market is in flux. But in time, the new rules could spark innovation that creates new business models and expands lower-cost options.
1) The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024
2, 4) The New York Times, May 10, 2024
3, 5, 7) National Association of Realtors, 2024
6) The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2024
The Economic Impact of an Aging World
During the week of June 10, 2024, French markets were rocked by a government bond sell-off after a strong showing by the far-right National Rally party in the European Union election. With polls suggesting the party might win a plurality of seats in the upcoming French parliamentary election, investors feared a promised social spending program, including a reduction of the minimum retirement age from 64 to 60, would further strain the already struggling French economy.1
As it turned out, the left-wing New Popular Front coalition, which also promised expensive social spending and a reduction in the pension age, won the most seats on election day. The initial reaction in the government bond market was muted, but analysts predicted further turmoil to come.2 By contrast, when France raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 in 2023, aiming to strengthen the economy, workers took to the streets in protest.3
Supporting senior programs
The French conflict over the retirement age reflects a fundamental social and economic issue throughout the developed world. Put simply, the world population is getting older, which means the percentage of workers in the population who can drive the economy and support old age pension and health-care programs is gradually diminishing.
The U.S. Social Security program is a prime example. In 1960, there were 5.1 workers paying into the program for each beneficiary. In 2024, there are 2.7, projected to drop to 2.3 by 2040. Because of this demographic shift, Social Security no longer pays for itself and has been partially supported by trust fund reserves built up when there were more workers per beneficiary. The reserves for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund, which helps support retirement benefits, are projected to run out in 2033, at which time program income would cover only 79% of scheduled benefits unless Congress takes action to increase funding.4
Medicare faces a similar challenge. The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund reserves, which help pay for Medicare Part A inpatient and hospital care benefits, are projected to be depleted in 2036, at which time payroll taxes and other revenue will pay only 89% of costs. Part B medical benefits and Part D prescription drug coverage are automatically balanced through premiums and revenue from the federal government’s general fund, but they will require an increasingly larger share of the federal budget unless economic growth outpaces spending.5
Longer lives, fewer children
The shift to an older population is driven by two demographic trends: people are living longer and having fewer children. One in six people in the world will be age 65 or older by 2050.6 The United States is already at that level, with more than 17% of the population age 65 or older in 2022, projected to reach almost 23% by 2050.7 Many other developed nations are even older. In 2022, the median age in the United States (the age at which half the population is older and half younger) was 38.9, the highest on record.8 In 2021 (most recent data), it was 48.4 in Japan, 46.8 in Italy, 44.9 in Germany, and 41.6 in France.9
The fertility rate, the average number of children born to each woman, has dropped throughout the world, due to a variety of factors including education, access to birth control, employment opportunities, and lifestyle choices. In the developed world, a fertility rate of about 2.1 is considered the replacement rate at which a country’s population remains stable. It is slightly higher in developing nations with higher mortality. Most developed countries have been below replacement since the 1970s, so they have depended on immigration to maintain or grow population.10 The U.S. fertility rate was 1.62 in 2023.11 Although fertility is higher in developing countries, it is dropping. Based on preliminary data, one academic study suggests that the global fertility rate may be near or below replacement for the first time in human history.12
Challenges and solutions
Spending on programs for an aging population is already straining economies throughout the world, and the economic pressure will increase as populations continue to age. The burden is not only the cost of the programs, but also the potential for lower production and tax revenue from a workforce that is smaller in proportion to the total population. This is likely to drive up government debt, and increased government borrowing, along with competition for a smaller pool of workers, may lead to higher inflation.13
So far, government programs to encourage couples to have more children have not had a significant impact, and there is no clear correlation between the fertility rate and child-care and housing costs, student debt, employment, religious beliefs, or local laws governing contraception and abortion. This suggests that the decision to have fewer children is more deeply ingrained in fundamental lifestyle choices. For developed countries, immigration may continue to provide a larger workforce, but recent immigration to developed nations has tended to be unskilled workers.14
The funding gap for government pension programs such as Social Security can be addressed by a combination of solutions that may be politically unpopular but are unlikely to derail the broader economy: higher retirement ages, increased payroll taxes, and means testing for wealthier beneficiaries.15 The larger question is how to keep growing the global economy. This may require increased worker productivity driven by recent technologies and greater integration of older workers into the workforce.
U.S. worker productivity increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first quarter of 2024, well above the annual average since the end of World War II. If this trend continues, it could help balance some productivity loss as older people exit the workforce. Americans are already working longer, about one out of five of those age 65 and older was employed in 2024, almost double the number in 1985.16 The long-term solution may require rethinking the traditional model of a career, with more opportunity for lifelong learning and late-life career development. Studies indicate that working longer may help prevent cognitive decline, but it also could help balance the macroeconomic effects of global aging.17
Projections are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not happen.
1) Bloomberg, June 16, 2024
2) CNBC, July 8, 2024
3, 17) The New York Times, January 21, 2023
4) 2024 Social Security Trustees Report
5) 2024 Medicare Trustees Report
6, 9–10) United Nations World Population Prospects 2022
7–8) U.S. Census Bureau, 2023
11) National Center for Health Statistics, April 2024
12, 14) The Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2024
13) Bloomberg, May 21, 2024
15) Social Security Administration, September 27, 2023
16) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
Real Estate Roundup: Feeling the Impact of Higher Rates
U.S. commercial real estate prices fell more than 11% between March 2022, when the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, and January 2024. The potential for steeper losses has chilled the market and still poses significant risks to some property owners and lenders.1
On the residential side of the market, the national median price of an existing home rose 5.7% over the year that ended in April 2024 to reach $407,600, a record high for April.2 Despite sky-high borrowing costs, buyer demand (driven up by younger generations forming new households) has exceeded the supply of homes for sale.
Here are some of the factors affecting these distinct markets and the broader economy.
Slow-motion commercial meltdown
The expansion of remote work and e-commerce (two byproducts of the pandemic) drastically reduced demand for office and retail space, especially in major metros. An estimated $1.2 trillion in commercial loans are maturing in 2024 and 2025, but depressed property values combined with high financing costs and vacancy rates could make it difficult for owners to clear their debt.3 In April 2024, an estimated $38 billion of office buildings were threatened by default, foreclosure, or distress, the highest amount since 2012.4
In a televised interview on 60 Minutes in February, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the mounting losses in commercial real estate are a “sizable problem” that could take years to resolve, but the risks to the financial system appear to be manageable.5
Locked-up housing market
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed from around 3.2% in the beginning of 2022 to a 23-year high of nearly 8% in October 2023. Mortgage rates have ticked down since then but not as much as many people hoped. In May 2024, the average rate hovered around 7%.6
The inventory of homes for sale has been extremely low since the pandemic, but a nationwide housing shortage has been in the works for decades. The housing crash devastated the construction industry, and labor shortages, limited land, higher material costs, and local building restrictions have all been blamed for a long-term decline of new single-family home construction. Freddie Mac estimated the housing shortfall was 3.8 million units in 2021 (most recent data).7
Many homeowners have mortgages with ultra-low rates, making them reluctant to sell because they would have to finance their next homes at much higher rates. This “lock-in effect” has worsened the inventory shortage and cut deeply into home sales. At the same time, the combination of higher mortgage rates and home prices has taken a serious toll on affordability and locked many aspiring first-time buyers out of homeownership.
In April 2024, inventories were up 16% over the previous year, but there was still just a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace. (A market with a six-month supply is viewed as balanced between buyers and sellers.) The supply of homes priced at more than $1 million was up 34% over the previous year, which may help affluent buyers, but won’t do much to improve the affordability of entry-level homes.8
New construction kicking in
Newly built homes accounted for 33.4% of homes for sale in Q1 2024, down from a peak of 34.5% in 2022, but still about double the pre-pandemic share. The growth in market share for new homes was mostly due to the lack of existing homes for sale.9
April 2024 was the second highest month for total housing completions in 15 years, with 1.62 million units (measured on an annualized basis), including single-family and multi-family homes.10 This may cause apartment vacancies to trend higher, help slow rent growth, and allow more families to purchase brand new homes in the next few months.
Renters are seeing relief thanks to a glut of multi-family apartment projects that were started in 2021 and 2022 — back when interest rates were low — and are gradually becoming available. In Q1 2024, the average apartment rent fell to $1,731, 1.8% below the peak in summer 2023.11
Effects weave through the economy
By one estimate, the construction and management of commercial buildings contributed $2.5 trillion to U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), generated $881.4 billion in personal earnings, and supported 15 million jobs in 2023.12 And according to the National Association of Realtors, residential real estate contributed an estimated $4.9 trillion (or 18%) to U.S. GDP in 2023, with each median-priced home sale generating about $125,000. When a home is purchased (new or existing), it tends to increase housing-related expenditures such as appliances, furniture, home improvement, and landscaping.13
Both real estate industries employ many types of professionals, and the development of new homes and buildings stimulates local economies by creating well-paying construction jobs and boosting property tax receipts. Development benefits other types of businesses (locally and nationally) by increasing production and employment in industries that provide raw materials like lumber or that manufacture or sell building tools, equipment, and components.
Shifts in real estate values, up or down, can influence consumer and business finances, confidence, and spending. And when buying a home seems unattainable, some younger consumers might give up on that goal and spend their money on other things.
If interest rates stay high for too long it could accelerate commercial loan defaults, losses, and bank failures, continue to constrain home sales, or eventually push down home values — and any of these outcomes would have the potential to cut into economic growth. When the Federal Reserve finally begins to cut interest rates, borrowing costs should follow, but that’s not likely to happen until inflation is no longer viewed as the larger threat.
1, 3) International Monetary Fund, January 18, 2024
2, 8, 10, 13) National Association of Realtors, 2024
4) The Wall Street Journal, April 30, 2024
5) CBS News, February 4, 2024
6–7) Freddie Mac, 2022–2024
9) Redfin, May 20, 2024
11) Moody’s, April 1, 2024
12) NAIOP Commercial Real Estate Development Association, 2024
