2018 Year-end opportunity
The end of the year presents a unique opportunity to look at your overall personal financial situation. With factors like tax reform, life changes or just working towards your goals, end of year is an especially important time to review things. Weaving together your prior planning, subsequent changes and revised goals helps you stay on course. Following are some things you consider before the year ends.
Income Tax Planning –Ensure you are implementing tax reduction strategies like maximizing your retirement plan contributions, tax loss harvesting in portfolios and making charitable contributions can all help reduce current and future tax bills. It is also good to review your current year tax projection based on your income and deductions year to date and how that may be different from before.
Estate Planning – Examine your current estate plan to visualize what would happen to each of your assets and how the current estate tax law will impact you. Be sure that your estate planning documents are up to date – not just your will, but also your power of attorney, health care documents, and any trust agreements and beneficiary designations are in line with your desires. If you have recently been through a significant life event such as marriage, divorce or the death of a spouse, this is especially important right now.
Investment Strategy– The recent market volatility has some people feeling uncomfortable. Market declines are a natural part of investing, and understanding the importance of maintaining discipline during these times is imperative. Regular portfolio rebalancing will allow you to maintain the appropriate amount of risk in your portfolio. And, if you are retired and living off your portfolio, you also want to maintain an appropriate cash reserve to cover living expenses for a certain period of time so that you do not have to sell equities in a down market.
Charitable Giving – There are many ways to be tax efficient when making charitable gifts. For example, donating appreciated stock could make sense in order to avoid paying capital gains taxes. Further, you may want to consider bunching charitable deductions by deferring donations to next year or making your planned 2019 donations ahead of time. If the numbers are large enough, you might even consider a private foundation or donor advised fund for your charitable giving. If you are at least 70.5 you may want to consider Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCD) from your IRA.
Retirement Planning –Think about your future when working becomes optional. Whether you expect a typical full retirement or a career change to something different, determining an appropriate balance between spending and saving, both now and in the future is important. There are many options available for saving for retirement, and we can help you understand which option is best for you. If you are at least 70.5 you should be sure your 2018 Required Minimum Distributions (RMD) from your IRAs are paid before year-end. Qualified Charitable Contributions, up to $100,000, will be treated as part of your RMD but not taxed.
Cash Flow Planning – Review your 2018 spending and plan ahead for next year. Understanding your cash flow needs is an important aspect of determining if you have sufficient assets to meet your goals. If you are retired, it is particularly important to maintain a tax efficient withdrawal strategy to cover your spending needs. If you have not yet reached age 70.5, it is prudent to ensure you are making tax-efficient withdrawal decisions. If you are over age 70.5 make sure you are taking your RMDs because the penalties are significant if you don’t.
Risk Management – It is always a good idea to periodically review your insurance coverages in various areas. Recent catastrophic events like hurricanes serve as a powerful reminder to make sure your property insurance coverage is right for your needs. If you are in a Federal disaster area, there are additional steps necessary to recover what you can and explore the tax treatment of casualty losses. Other areas of risk management that may need to be revisited include life and disability insurance.
Education Funding – Funding education costs for children or grandchildren is important to many people. While the increase in college costs have slowed some lately, this is still a major expense for most families. It is important to know the many different ways you can save for education to determine the optimal strategy. Often, funding a 529 plan comes with tax benefits, so making contributions before the end of the year is key. With the added flexibility of funding k-12 years (set at a $10,000 limit), 529 accounts become even more advantageous.
Elder Planning – There are many financial planning elements to consider as you age, and it is important to consider these things before it’s too late. Having a plan in place for who will handle your financial affairs should you suffer cognitive decline is critical. Making sure your spouse and/or family understands your plans will help reduce future family conflicts and ensure your wishes are considered.
The decisions you make each year with your personal finances will have a lasting impact. I hope this has begun to generate some insight to areas of your personal finance that need attention. Please contact me if you have any comments or questions.
Changing Market: Municipal Bonds After Tax Reform
January is typically a strong month for the municipal bond market, but 2018 began with the worst January performance since 1981, driven by rising interest rates and uncertainty over changes in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).1 The muni market stabilized through April 2018, but uncertainty remains.2 The tax law changed the playing field for these investments, which could affect supply and demand.
When considering these dynamics, keep in mind that bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship, so increased demand generally drives bond prices higher and yields lower, and vice versa. Any such changes directly affect the secondary market for bonds and might also influence new-issue bonds. If you hold bonds to maturity, you should receive the principal and interest unless the bond issuer defaults.
Tax rates and deduction limits
Municipal bonds are issued by state and local governments to help fund ongoing expenses and finance public projects such as roads, water systems, schools, and stadiums. The primary appeal of these bonds is that the interest is generally exempt from federal income tax, as well as from state and local taxes if you live in the state where the bond was issued. Because of this tax advantage, a muni with a lower yield might offer greater value than a taxable bond with a higher yield, especially for investors in higher tax brackets.
The lower federal income tax rates established by the new tax law would cut into this added value, but the difference is relatively small and unlikely to affect demand. Many taxpayers, especially in high-tax states, may find munis even more appealing to help replace deductions lost to other TCJA provisions, including the $10,000 cap for deductions of state and local taxes.3 Tax-free muni interest can help lower taxable income regardless of whether you itemize deductions.
The large corporate tax reduction from a top rate of 35% to 21% is likely to have a more significant effect on demand for munis. Corporations, which own a little less than 30% of the muni market, may hold on to bonds they currently own but become more selective in purchasing future bonds.4
A tightening market
The supply of new municipal bonds dropped after the fiscal crisis as local governments became more cautious about borrowing. The TCJA further tightened the market by eliminating “advanced refunding” bonds, issued to replace older bonds at lower interest rates, which have accounted for about 15% of new issues.5
This is expected to reduce the supply of bonds for the next three years or so, but the long-term effects are unclear. If interest rates continue to climb, there is less to gain by replacing older bonds, but local governments may issue taxable bonds if they see an opportunity to reduce interest payments. There may also be changes to the structure of future muni issues.6
Risk and rising interest rates
Munis are considered less risky than corporate bonds and less sensitive to changing interest rates than Treasuries, making them an appealing middle ground for many investors. For the period 2007 to 2016, which includes the recession, the five-year default rate for municipal bonds was 0.15%, compared with 6.92% for corporate bonds. Most of those defaults were related to severe fiscal situations such as those in Detroit and Puerto Rico. The five-year default rate for investment-grade bonds (rated AAA to BBB/Baa) was just 0.05%.7
Treasuries, which are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, are considered the most stable fixed-income investment, and rising Treasury yields, as occurred in early 2018, tend to put downward pressure on munis.8 However, Treasuries are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and stock market volatility makes both Treasuries and munis appealing to investors looking for stability.
Bond funds
The most convenient way to add municipal bonds to your portfolio is through mutual funds, which also provide diversification that can be difficult to create with individual bonds. Diversification is a method used to help manage investment risk; it does not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss.
Muni funds focused on a single state offer the added value of tax deductibility for residents of those states, but smaller state funds may not offer the level of diversification found in larger states. It’s also important to consider the holdings and credit risks of any bond fund, including those dedicated to a specific state. For example, in October 2017, many state funds still held Puerto Rico bonds, which are generally exempt from state income tax but carry high credit risk.9
If a bond was issued by a municipality outside the state in which you reside, the interest may be subject to state and local income taxes. If you sell a municipal bond at a profit, you could incur capital gains taxes. Some municipal bond interest may be subject to the alternative minimum tax.
The return and principal value of bonds and bond fund shares fluctuate with changes in market conditions. When redeemed, they may be worth more or less than their original cost. Bond funds are subject to the same inflation, interest rate, and credit risks associated with their underlying bonds. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall, which can adversely affect a bond fund’s performance. Investments offering the potential for higher rates of return involve a higher degree of risk.
Mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. The prospectus, which contains this and other information about the investment company, can be obtained from your financial professional. Be sure to read the prospectus carefully before deciding whether to invest.
1, 8) CNBC, February 28, 2018
2) Bloomberg, 2018 (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Municipal Index for the period 1/1/2018 to 4/16/2018)
3-4, 6) The Bond Buyer, February 12, 2018
5) The New York Times, February 23, 2018
7) Moody’s Investors Service, 2017
9) CNBC, October 10, 2017
Correction Time: The Market Takes a Hit
After reaching all-time highs on January 26, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 went into a two-week slide that saw both stock indexes drop by more than 10%, a decline that is typically considered a market correction.1
Analysts have been saying for several years that the long, booming bull market was overvalued and due for a correction, so the drop was not a surprise in the big picture.2 And even after the 10% plunge, the Dow was up 19% over the previous 12 months, and the S&P 500 was up 12.5%.3
It’s natural to be concerned about this kind of shift, but more important to maintain perspective and focus on your long-term goals. It may be helpful to consider some of the reasons behind the surge of market volatility.
Too Much of a Good Thing?
The initial trigger for the downturn was a better-than-expected jobs report on February 2, that helped drive the Dow down more than 2.5%, a significant decline considering the unusually low volatility in 2017 and the beginning of 2018. The economy added 200,000 jobs in January, marking the 88th straight month of job creation, the longest such run in U.S. history. Wages rose by 2.9% over the previous January, the highest year-over-year increase since the end of the recession in June 2009. And the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% for the fourth straight month, the lowest level in 17 years.4
Although the report was great news for U.S. workers, on Wall Street the rosy jobs picture generated fears of higher inflation that might drive the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated. At its December 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee signaled its intention to raise the benchmark federal funds rate three times in 2018, bringing it up to a range of 2.0% to 2.25%. Theoretically, these changes have been priced into the market, but the strong jobs report made it more likely that the Fed will follow through on its projection and possibly execute further increases if inflation heats up.5
Stocks, Bonds, and U.S. Debt
Higher interest rates rattle the stock market because investors are more likely to move assets out of risky stocks and into more stable bonds as fixed-income yields become more attractive. Higher rates not only mean increased yields on new bonds but also on existing bonds, as prices are pushed downward to make yields competitive. In addition, the prospect of inflation tends to push bond prices lower and yields higher, because inflation erodes the purchasing power of fixed-income payments.
One reason for the initial reaction to the January jobs report expanding into a full-blown correction is that bond yields were already rising due to other factors. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note — a bedrock of global financial markets — has been rising since tax legislation was proposed in the fall of 2017, and the yield reached a four-year high of 2.85% the day the jobs report was released.6-7 Although the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was generally welcomed on Wall Street, bond traders have been concerned that increased Treasury sales to pay for the $1.5 trillion tax cuts will erode bond prices. This concern was exacerbated by the bipartisan budget deal that further increased deficit spending.8
The Treasury is working to finance higher debt at the same time the Federal Reserve is unwinding its recession-era bond-buying program. With the Fed reducing its bond portfolio, the Treasury must sell more bonds to the public to cover growing deficits. The Treasury recently announced the first increase in bond sales since 2009.9
The question is who will buy these bonds and what are they willing to pay for them? A weak dollar has made Treasuries less appealing to foreign governments, which hold more than 44% of U.S. government debt. With the Treasury market depending more on U.S. investors, supply may be outpacing demand — illustrated by a tepid Treasury auction on February 7.10
The Long View
Although mounting government debt is a serious concern, the stock and bond markets are both driven in the long term by the economy, and the United States looks to be hitting its stride after a long, slow recovery. The global economy, which has been even slower to recover, is coming back as well.
A correction may be disturbing, but it can strengthen the market in the long term by returning equity values to levels that are more in line with corporate earnings and less dependent on investor exuberance. A corrected market may also be less vulnerable to overreaction. On February 14, the Dow and the S&P 500 closed up more than 1.2%, despite a consumer report that showed higher-than-expected inflation. Even with higher prices in January, core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) is running at only 1.8%, still below the Fed’s 2% target rate.11
Of course, no one can predict the future, and you might see volatility for some time. The wisest course may be to remain patient and avoid making portfolio decisions based on emotion.
The return and principal value of stocks and bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, and bonds redeemed prior to maturity may be worth more or less than their original cost. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged group of securities that is considered representative of the U.S. stock market in general. The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual results will vary.
1, 3) Yahoo! Finance, 2018, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 index for the period 2/8/2017 to 2/8/2018
2) Bloomberg, February 6, 2018
4-5) The Wall Street Journal, February 2, 2018
6) CNBC, January 11, 2018
7) CNNMoney, February 2, 2018
8) MarketWatch, February 12, 2018
9) Bloomberg, January 31, 2018
10) Bloomberg, February 7, 2018
11) MarketWatch, February 14, 2018
Perspective on February 5, 2018 Market Events
It looks like the U.S. stock market will finally get something that happens, on average, about once a year: a 10+% percent drop—the definition of a market correction. The last time this happened was a whopper—the Great Recession drop that caused U.S. stocks to drop more than 50%–so most people today probably think corrections are catastrophic. They aren’t. More typically, they last anywhere from 20 trading days (the 1997 correction, down 10.8%) to 104 days (the 2002-2003 correction, down 14.7%). Corrections are unnerving, but they’re a healthy part of the economy—for a couple of reasons.
Reason #1: Because corrections happen so frequently and are so unnerving to the average investor, they “force” the stock market to be more generous than alternative investments. People buy stocks at earnings multiples which are designed to generate average future returns considerably higher than, say, cash or municipal bonds—and investors require that “risk premium” (which is what economists call it) to get on that ride. If you’re going to take more risk, you should expect at least the opportunity to get considerably more reward.
Reason #2: The stock market roller coaster is too unsettling for some investors, who sell when they experience a market lurch. This gives long-term investors a valuable—and frequent—opportunity to buy stocks on sale. That, in turn, lowers the average cost of the stocks in your portfolio, which can be a boost to your long-term returns.
The current market downturn relates directly to the first reason, where you can see that bonds and stocks are always competing with each other. Monday’s 4.1% decline in the S&P 500 coincided with an equally-remarkable rise in the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Treasuries with a 10-year maturity are now providing yields of 2.85%–hardly generous, but well above the record lows that investors were getting just 18 months ago. People who believe they can get a decent, relatively risk-free return from bond investments are tempted to abandon the bumpy ride provided by stocks for a smoother course that involves clipping coupons. Bond rates go up and the very delicate supply/demand balance shifts, at least temporarily, in their direction, and you have the recipe for a stock market correction.
This provides us all with the opportunity to do an interesting exercise. It’s possible that the markets will drop further—perhaps even, as we saw during the Great Recession, much further. Or, as is more often the case, they may rebound after giving us a correction that stops short of a 20% downturn. The rebound could happen as early as tomorrow or some weeks or months from now as the correction plays out.
Once it’s over, no matter how long or hard the fall, you will hear people say that they predicted the extent of the drop. So now is a good time to ask yourself: do I know what’s going to happen tomorrow? Or next week? Or next month? Is this a good time to buy or sell? Does anybody seem to have a handle on what’s going to happen in the future?
Record your prediction, and any predictions you happen to run across, and pull them out a month or two from now.
Chances are, you’re like the rest of us. Whatever happens will come as a surprise, and then look blindingly obvious in hindsight. All we know is what has happened in the past. Today’s market drop is nothing more than a data point on a chart that doesn’t, alas, extend into the future.
Sources:
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/6-things-you-should-know-about-a-stock-market-corr.aspx
https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-getting-smashed-143950261.html
Bob Veres
New Real Estate Sector Puts Equity REITs in the Spotlight
Publicly traded REITs and other listed real estate companies are being moved to a distinct Real Estate sector by S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI recently moved publicly traded equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) and other listed real estate companies from the Financials sector into a new, separate Real Estate sector effective September 1, 2016. (Mortgage REITs remain in the Financials sector, along with banks and insurance companies.) There are now 11 headline sectors instead of 10. It’s the first time a new sector has been added to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) since it was created in 1999. (1)
The move has implications for investors, because S&P and MSCI indexes are common benchmarks for investment performance, and the GICS is often used as a framework for portfolio construction. By some estimates, fund managers could shift as much as $100 billion to the Real Estate sector in a collective effort to follow the market weightings of various indexes. (2)
The change could also affect the asset allocation decisions of some individual investors by drawing more attention to equity REITs as income-generating assets with the potential for capital appreciation.
Fixed-income appeal
An equity REIT is a company that combines capital from investors to buy and manage income properties such as apartments, shopping centers, hotels, medical facilities, offices, self-storage units, and industrial buildings. Publicly traded REIT shares can generally be bought or sold on an exchange at a moment’s notice, making them more liquid than physical real estate investments, which involve transactions that can take months to complete.
Many REITs generate a reliable income stream regardless of share price performance, primarily because they are required by law to pay out 90% of their taxable incomes as dividends to stakeholders. In the second quarter of 2016, the S&P REIT index had a dividend yield of 3.73%. (3) The performance of an unmanaged index is not indicative of the performance of any specific security. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index.
REIT share prices can be sensitive to interest rates. As rates rise, steady dividends may appear less attractive to investors relative to the safety of bonds offering similar yields. On the other hand, current fundamentals, including modest economic growth, lower unemployment, and rising rents, are generally seen as positive conditions for REITs and other real estate businesses.
Diversification tool
Breaking real estate out of the Financials sector acknowledges that the industry’s business models and ties to underlying property markets produce a distinctive risk-return profile, including a relatively low correlation to the rest of the stock market. (4) Because the share prices of equity REITs don’t rise and fall in lockstep with the broader stock market, including them in your portfolio could help reduce the overall level of risk.
The return and principal value of all stocks, including REITs, fluctuate with changes in market conditions. Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee a profit or protect against investment loss; they are methods used to help manage investment risk.
REIT distributions are taxable to the extent they include any ordinary income and capital gains. Some REITs may not qualify as a REIT as defined in the tax code, which could affect operations and negatively impact the ability to make distributions.
There are inherent risks associated with real estate investments that could have an adverse effect on financial performance. Such risks may include a deterioration in the economy or local real estate conditions; tenant defaults; property mismanagement; and changes in operating expenses (including insurance costs, energy prices, real estate taxes, and the cost of compliance with laws, regulations, and government policies).
Breaking real estate out of the Financials sector acknowledges that the industry’s business models and ties to underlying property markets produce a distinctive risk-return profile, including a relatively low correlation to the rest of the stock market.
(1) , (3) S&P Dow Jones Indices, 2015-2016
(2) Investor’s Business Daily, March 18, 2016
(4) FinancialAdvisor.com, March 1, 2016
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent, individual, professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources.
The British Are Leaving! Why the Brexit Matters to Investors
Here’s an overview of the economic issues surrounding the Brexit, and what this historic
decision could mean for the United Kingdom, world trade, and international investors.
On June 23, citizens of the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern
Ireland) voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52% to 48%.1 Though pre-election
polls suggested that public opinion was evenly divided, when the election results became
clear, financial markets around the world reacted swiftly to concerns about potential economic
ramifications of a British exit—or Brexit—from the EU.
On June 24, the British pound plunged more than 10% against the dollar to its lowest point
since 1985, before recovering slightly to settle nearly 8% lower at the end of the day.2 European
stocks suffered the worst sell-off since 2008, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbling 7%, and
the Japanese Nikkei Index posted a one-day drop of 7.9%.3–4 In the United States, the S&P 500 Index fell 3.6%, reversing year-to-date gains.5
Here’s an overview of the economic issues surrounding the Brexit, and what this historic
decision could mean for the United Kingdom, world trade, and international investors.
The EU and the Referendum
The European Union was formed after World War II to help promote peace through
economic cooperation. Over time, it became a common market, allowing goods and people to
move freely around 28 member states as if they were one country. The U.K. joined the trading
bloc in 1973, when there were only 9 member states.
In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron rejected calls for a referendum on EU membership
but later agreed to hold one if the Conservative party won the 2015 election.6 The leaders of
all five major political parties campaigned to remain in the EU, including Cameron, warning
voters that leaving the EU was a leap into the unknown that could damage the U.K.’s economy
and weaken national security.7
Brexit supporters said leaving the EU allows the nation to take back control over business,
labor, and immigration regulations and policies. They also claimed the money being
contributed to the EU budget (a net contribution of 9.8 billion pounds in 2014) would be better
spent on infrastructure and public services in the U.K.8
Economic Expectations
The negative outlook for the U.K. economy depends on the terms of trade deals yet to
be negotiated with the EU and other nations. For example, the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) projects that U.K. gross domestic product could decline about 1.5% by 2021, assuming
the United Kingdom is granted access to the EU market quickly. Under a more adverse
scenario (which assumes trade defaults to World Trade Organization rules), the IMF projects a
precarious decline in GDP of about 4.5%.9
The U.K.’s departure strikes a serious blow to the EU, which has been beleaguered by debt
crises, a Greek bailout, the influx of millions of refugees, high unemployment, and weak GDP
growth. If trade activity and business conditions in the region deteriorate, it’s possible that the
U.K. and the EU could fall back into recession.
Next Steps
Once Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is invoked, the formal process of leaving the EU will
begin, opening up a two-year window of negotiations on the terms of the exit. The U.K. will
remain a member of the EU until it officially departs.10
The U.K. is the first nation to break away from the EU, but a larger concern is that anti-EU
factions in other nations could be empowered to follow suit. Moreover, Scotland could seek
independence from the U.K. in order to remain in the EU, and Northern Ireland might consider
reunification with the Republic of Ireland.11
What About Us?
The EU is the largest trading partner of the United States, so the Brexit complicates
pending trade negotiations and will require adjustments to existing agreements. It may also
take time to forge new deals with the U.K.12
U.S. companies with a significant presence in the U.K. could take a hit. With the British
pound weakening against an already strong dollar, U.S. exports become more expensive,
reducing foreign sales. The U.S. economy is not as vulnerable as the EU, but the U.S. Federal
Reserve may be more likely to delay its decision to raise interest rates until the consequences
of the Brexit on U.S. and global markets can be assessed.13
Brexit-related anxiety could continue to spark market volatility until the details are finalized
and the economic fallout is better understood, possibly for several years. Having a sound
investing strategy that matches your risk tolerance could prevent you from making emotional
decisions and losing sight of your long-term financial goals.
Investments are subject to market fluctuation, risk, and loss of principal. Investing internationally
carries additional risks such as differences in financial reporting, currency exchange risk, as well as economic
and political risk unique to a specific country. This may result in greater share price volatility.
Shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. The performance of an unmanaged
index is not indicative of the performance of any specific security. Individuals cannot invest in any
index.
1-2, 7, 10-11) BBC News, June 24, 2016
3, 5) Bloomberg.com, June 24, 2016
4) Reuters, June 24, 2016
6) The New York Times, June 25, 2016
8) CNNMoney, June 2, 2016
9) International Monetary Fund, 2016
12-13) The Wall Street Journal, June 24, 2016
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent, individual, professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources.
When investing should you follow your gut?
Jason Zweig’s Wall Street Journal March 18, 2016 article, “The Three Worst Words of Stock-Market Advice: Trust Your Gut” is insightful. The substance of the article is stated in a quote from Benjamin Graham’s book, “…The investor’s chief problem-and even his worst enemy-is likely to be himself.”
The article references research by “…finance professors William Goetzmann and Robert Shiller of Yale, along with Dasol Kim of Case Western Reserve University, have analyzed the Yale surveys and found that investors’ forecasts regularly look more like aftercasts—simple projections of the recent past into the future.”
“Prof. Shiller… has been surveying investors about their expectations since 1989.” One question is…What are the odds of a one-day crash of at least 12% in the U.S. stock market over the next six months? The probable answer was about 10 times the probability. “Remarkably, professional investors exaggerate the odds almost as badly as individual investors do.” “What’s more, the new study suggests, you probably should have put higher odds on an imminent crash back in January than you would now or would have six months or a year ago. That is partly because a sharp recent drop makes future declines seem more probable, and partly because the news media uses words like “crash” much more often after the market falls sharply.” “Naturally, investors tend to be complacent when they should be worried and afraid when they should be optimistic.”
“Words charged with negative emotion not only darken your view of the future, but they may make you feel that riskier investments have a lower—rather than a higher—potential return.”
“Dates like Oct. 28, 1929, and Oct. 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13% and 23% respectively, can “evoke a sense of doom,” says Prof. Goetzmann of Yale. ‘Crashes have a remarkably long life in the public imagination. Their echoes can last for decades’.”
Having a plan with a target allocation can help restrain reacting to your gut. This provides a map to achieve your financial goals. Your plan should be reviewed when your goals, priorities or circumstance change. You should review your investments periodically to see if they still fit the reason you chose the investment. There is not a consensus of how frequently you should review your plan and investments. Making changes too frequently is trading rather than investing. Very few are consistently successful at trading. There are costs and possible tax consequences when trading. Your plan should identify when the investment should be adjusted to meet your target (rebalancing). Set a percent or dollar amount of change that would justify rebalancing.
Generally rebalancing will increase the long-term performance. Waiting too long can reduce your returns.
Highlights from various articles of note
Target Date Funds:
An article by John Sullivan in the inaugural issue of “401k Specialist” discussed Target Date Funds (TDF). The article is based on a panel discussion at the 2015 Morningstar Investment Conference. Initially these funds were disappointing. One area of concern related to asset-class diversification. The question was not just about the ratio of stocks to bonds. The portion in domestic, foreign and alternative investments was also a concern. Another area requiring improvement was how the mix of assets changed over time and during retirement.
TDFs have improved since their introduction. Three companies account for 70% of the assets in these funds. At one point they accounted for 80%. Only one firm had funds (3) in the highest 10 performing funds. The other top performing TDF’s were from 2 other firms.
The greatest benefits of TDFs from my viewpoint is the improvement in investor behavior. “Investors are using them well. They don’t exhibit the typical behaviors of fear and greed with target date funds, and as a result stay the course and remain invested longer.”
Not all TDFs are the same. You want one that is consistent with your situation and your plan.
Retirement Planning Calculators:
This is the subject of a Wall Street Journal article, “New Study Questions Retirement Planning Calculators’ Accuracy.” This article was update online Feb. 22, 2016.
The article discusses an academic study of 36 retirement planning calculators. “… ‘in most cases, the available offerings are extremely misleading ‘ and generally not helpful to consumers trying to figure out if they will have enough money to cover their expenses for the rest of their lives.”
The study was based on “… a hypothetical couple in their late 50s earning $50,000 each and aiming to retire at ages 65 and 63.” The calculators were described as “…free and low-cost…” The cause of the misleading results was the limited amount of information used by the calculators.
“…the researchers identified a list of more than 20 factors they believe should be included…”
Do not use the simplest calculator available. Pick one that has many questions. Also review the assumptions they are using. All calculators are use assumptions. Some assumptions to all calculators are: life expectancy, health, inflation rates, investment returns. Other questions would include the amount of your current investments and amounts you are currently savings.
The No. 1 stock over 30 years illustrates the advantage of index funds.
The “super stocks” over this period “…have all undergone at least one near-death experience.” according to David Salem. “Balchem shows the patience, grit and good luck it takes for a company to turn into a superstock.”
“The stock didn’t attract a single major institutional holder until 1999, even though it had returned an average of 21.3% annually over the previous decade.
“Investment professionals often ridicule index funds-those autopilot portfolios that mechanically own every stock in a market benchmark – for holding overpriced stocks and riding them all the way down. But one of the unsung virtues of index funds is that, by design they cling to their holding through even the worst downdrafts.”
His summary of the article is that most people are better off with index funds. “In the long term, capturing the full upward sweep of a super-stock requires enduring several near-death experiences along the way.”
The article did not attempt to discuss the differences among index funds. The differences are important in developing a portfolio. Each index may include different companies or a different mix of companies. Size, industry, location, performance are examples of differences. The type and portion of companies can vary. The expenses of each fund also vary. Very few individuals can outperform the market. Select funds that are best for you.
Fed Rate Hike: What Does It Mean?
Federal funds rate raised
On Wednesday, December 16, 2015, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target rate, the interest rate at which banks lend funds to each other (typically overnight) within the Federal Reserve System. Since December 2008, the Fed had kept the range at a previously unheard-of level of 0% to 0.25% to help ensure that credit would be available to promote economic recovery. With this change, the target range will be 0.25% to 0.50%. In announcing its decision, the Federal Open Market Committee explained that the economy has been expanding moderately and is expected to continue expanding at a similar pace. The Committee also stated that it expects labor market conditions will continue to strengthen and that inflation will rise to 2% over the medium term.
Since the federal funds rate is a short-term rate that banks pay to borrow money, it is a factor in how banks set their own rates. The federal funds rate also serves as a benchmark for many short-term rates, such as saving accounts, money market accounts, and short-term bonds.
Additional increases ahead?
According to the Committee, “[i]n determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.” (Source: Federal Reserve Press Release, December 16, 2015) The Committee stated that it expects economic conditions will result in only gradual increases to the federal funds rate. This means that it’s possible there will be additional small increases in the coming year, though it is unlikely there will be a large jump.
What does it mean for you?
First, it’s important to put things in perspective. Despite all the headlines, by any measure this is a small increase. And the increase itself is a reflection of an improving economy.
The federal funds rate does have an effect on interest rates in general, though. So, here are some things to consider:
- Bond prices tend to fall when interest rates rise. Longer-term bonds may feel a greater impact than those with shorter maturities. That’s because when interest rates are rising, bond investors may be reluctant to tie up their money for longer periods if they anticipate higher yields in the future; and the longer a bond’s term, the greater the risk that its yield may eventually be superceded by that of newer bonds. Of course, while bonds redeemed prior to maturity may be worth more or less than their original value, if you hold a bond to maturity, you would suffer no loss of principal unless the issuer defaults.
- Rising interest rates can affect equities as well, though not as directly as bonds. For example, companies that have borrowed heavily in recent years to take advantage of low rates could see borrowing costs increase, which could affect their bottom lines. And if interest rates continue to rise to a level that’s more competitive with the return on stocks, investor demand for equities could fall.
- Rising interest rates could eventually help savers who have money in cash alternatives. Savings accounts, CDs, and money market funds are all likely to provide somewhat higher income. The downside, though, is that if higher rates are accompanied by inflation, these cash alternatives may not keep pace with rising prices.
- The prime rate, which commercial banks charge their best customers, is typically tied to the federal funds rate. Though actual rates can vary widely, small-business loans, adjustable-rate mortgages, home-equity lines of credit, credit cards, and new auto loans are often linked to the prime rate, which means that when the federal funds rate increases, the rates on these types of loans tend to go up as well.
- Although a number of other factors come into play, increases in the federal funds rate may also put some upward pressure on new fixed home mortgage rates.
The bottom line? Don’t overreact. But do take this opportunity to think about how rising interest rates could affect you, and consider discussing your overall situation with your financial professional.
All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there can be no assurance that any investment strategy will be successful. Before investing in a mutual fund, carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the fund. This information can be found in the prospectus, which can be obtained from the fund or from your financial professional. Read it carefully before investing.
An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although a money market fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund. Bond funds are subject to the same inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks associated with their underlying bonds. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall, which can adversely affect a bond fund’s performance.
There is no assurance that working with a financial professional will improve investment results. However, a financial professional who focuses on your overall objectives can help you consider strategies that could have a substantial effect on your long-term financial situation.
The foregoing is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended or designed to provide legal, accounting, tax, investment or other professional advice. Such advice requires consideration of individual circumstances. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that competent, individual, professional advice be obtained. JAS Financial Services, LLC is not responsible for any modifications made to this material, or for the accuracy of information provided by other sources.
This graph represents the effective federal funds rate from 1981 through 2014. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (www.federalreserve.gov), December 16, 2015